Poll: Which Vehicle Technology Will Become Mainstream Within Two Decades?
Toyota first began selling the Prius hybrid in Japan in December 1997 — nearly 20 years ago. This form of hybrid is now mainstream, cars from many manufacturers offer some form of hybrid. In all these an internal combustion engine (ICE) comes on the drive the wheels, as needed. Batteries are recharged primarily through regenerative braking. Millions of such hybrid vehicles have been sold worldwide.
What’s next?
Below are four technologies that might become mainstream in the next two decades, listed alphabetically:
- Electric vehicles (plugs into grid, no ICE)
- Fuel cell vehicles (uses oxygen & hydrogen to generate electricity used to power electric motors)
- Plug-in hybrid vehicles (plugs into grid, ICE charges batteries to extend range)
- Self-driving vehicles (the autonomous self-driving vehicle wouldn’t need input from a human)
For the poll this week I want to see which of the above, if any, will become mainstream within 20 years. The poll includes those four plus options for ‘none’ and ‘unsure’, all will be presented randomly. The poll is at the top of the right sidebar, you can select up to four answers.
— Steve Patterson
Define “mainstream”. 10% of the market? 25%? Total light vehicle sales in the US, since 1999, are in excess of 220 million*. Of that, slightly more than 3 million have been hybrids**. That’s more than 1%, but well less than 2% of total sales. I certainly don’t consider that “mainstream”, and all other options are fractions of fractions. The gasoline internal combustion engine has continued to dominate the market, here, for over a century, because it’s inexpensive and gets the job done with minimal hassles. In Europe, diesels have a much larger market share than here – they’re mainstream – but they also still rely on petroleum for their energy source.
I’ve said it before – money talks. My wife and I have purchased two new vehicles over the past few years, a compact pickup in 2008 and a midsize sedan 2012. Both times, we seriously considered the Prius, but it was eliminated both times because our other choices offered better solutions and better value for our daily needs and use. Maximum mpg is only one part of the equation. Total monthly costs (the bottom line) include loan payments, personal property taxes, insurance and maintenance as well as fuel. We “saved” $10,000 on the purchase price of the truck and taxes and insurance are both less than they would be with a Prius. Yes, we do spend twice as much each month on gas as we would with a Prius – currently, gas is costing us around $180 a month, while a Prius would be costing us way more than $90 more a month in costs other than fuel.
*http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2014/01/us-light-vehicle-sales-decrease-to-155.html
**http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hybrid_electric_vehicles_in_the_United_States
As I wrote in the post, nearly every major manufacturer offers at least one hybrid vehicle. Many offer more than one. Ok, the Prius wasn’t for you. Toyota offers three Prius models, Camry hybrid, numerous Lexus hybrids, Ford offers the Fusion in a hybrid, and at least one Lincoln model, etc. hybrids are no longer a niche product.
Most manufacturers also offer a convertible and/or a sporty, 2-seat model, as well – they’re considered to be niche products. And many other manufacturers don’t offer any hybrids, at all, choosing to focus on other technologies to improve fuel mileage and other gimmicks to attract buyers.
I’ll repeat my original question – define “mainstream”. It’s a nebulous term, as is the actual definition: “belonging to or characteristic of a principal, dominant, or widely accepted group, movement, style, etc.” The boring midsize sedan – Malibu, Fusion, Camry, Altima – is definitely mainstream, as are SUV’s and minivans. The most popular light vehicle isn’t even a car or SUV, it’s a pickup, the Ford F-150, so it’s the most mainstream of anything being sold in the USA, and far from being a hybrid.
It looks like you want “mainstream” to be that multiple manufacturers offer some particular type of alternative propulsion technology, even if it doesn’t sell in large numbers. I want to define “mainstream” by sales. If some technology reaches a certain threshold (5%? 10%?) then it becomes mainstream, if not, it remains a niche product, like a Corvette or a Nissan Leaf.
And to turn things around, you guys recently purchased a used Corolla instead of a used Prius. I’m guessing that your reasons were much the same as ours – what’s the most that we can get for the money we have to spend? What is the bottom line, monthly cost? Is it going to be reliable?
We purchased a used Civic, my previous car was a Corolla. We both want a hybrid, but we wanted a sunroof more — the Civic hybrid doesn’t come with a factory sunroof like our Civic EX.
Today you can get hybrids in compacts, midsize, and full size passenger cars: 2-doors, 4-doors, hatchbacks, luxury cars, and even sports cars. You can get a hybrid pickup truck!
You’re not answering my question – what, exactly, is “mainstream”? How is it quantified? Or, is it just a feeling or a belief? Manual transmissions are less and less available – are they no longer mainstream? What’s the threshold? 10%? 5%? 40%? 2%? At what point will all-electric or fuel-cell propulsion move from an intellectual exercise/engineering curiosity to “mainstream”? I’m looking for verifiable, quantifiable numbers, not random, unsupported statements of “fact”. “Can get” and actually selling/buying are two very different things! You can spend $2,000 to buy a gold-plated i phone, but they’re sure not going to sell very many . . . .
It isn’t quantified, there’s no magical number or percentage. I was never able to find any good definition, at best it relates to availability to the masses. See http://editorial.autos.msn.com/listarticle.aspx?cp-documentid=1146564
Thanks for the clarification. And FYI, GM is no longer offering their hybrid pickup truck (due to terrible sales). Both GM and Ford seem to be moving to turbocharging smaller engines to replace larger, less-efficient V-8’s in their light trucks, and Ford is making a major shift to aluminum to make their light trucks lighter.
http://www.greencarreports.com/news/1081195_official-gm-quietly-drops-hybrid-pickups-are-suvs-next
Don’t be so dismissive, check our Via Motors’ electrified trucks: http://www.viamotors.com/vehicles/electric-truck/ Never heard of them? The chairman is Bob Lutz!
Never heard of ’em . . . but if I wanted to acquire one of their “mainstream” vehicles, I’d have to go to Louisville, Indianapolis or Chicago – not on my radar. There are always people on the fringes of the automotive world that are doing creative, unique things with motor vehicles, but when their annual sales are in the dozens or the hundreds, they are definitely NOT “mainstream”. And you probably haven’t heard of hydraulic hybrids, but they’re another technology worth exploring: http://lightninghybrids.com/
From Via Motors’ website – using their own numbers, there’s a minimum payback period of 8 years before any savings are seen: http://www.viamotors.com/vehicles/quote-request/ . . and their numbers assume extended idling and 11 mpg for a regular pickup. I’ll bet that they’re going to be about as successful as most other startups, much like Emerald Automotive in Hazelwood: http://fox2now.com/2014/05/01/hazelwoods-emerald-automotive-electric-van-plant-on-hold/
You don’t seem to understand some people will pay more for something because it is a greener option.
Yes I do understand – the question is how much more? It appears that the basic Via price is twice as much (based on the lease rate, which is closely related to the purchase price). You have to be really motivated to go green when your monthly lease payment doubles. Look at what happened to solar panel installations in the state – when state subsidies ran out (and costs went up), installations fell off a cliff: http://www.stltoday.com/business/local/solar-industry-faces-key-incentive-loss-for-missouri-residents/article_12bfc296-7a37-5919-a858-00cb40c5e61b.html . .
Let’s look at some real numbers. Six years ago, I bought a compact pickup (Tacoma) partly to save fuel, and I’ve averaged 24 mpg over 60,000+ miles. That’s 2500 gallons, or 35 gallons a month. Assume that gas is costing me $3.50 a gallon, that means I’m spending $122.50 a month on fuel. My truck’s paid for, but assume that I was still making payments. If I double my mileage, from 24 mpg to 48 mpg, I can afford to spend another $62 a month on a lease or loan payment. If I double my mileage, again, from 48 mpg to 96 mpg (what Via is claiming), I save $93 a month in fuel costs. Capitalized over 8 years / 96 months, that lets me spend another $8500, or 50% more than I spent back in 2008.
Going “green” is relative. Electricity in Missouri relies primarily on coal, and transmission losses means that only 10-15% of the original energy input makes it to a productive end use. Batteries require heavy metals and have a limited lifespan. They need time to recharge – you just can’t “fill the tank” and drive off. Going smaller and lighter will save whatever fuel is being used, yet we continue to buy large vehicles (like the Via pickup). SOV’s, even green ones, are the bane of our existence, but they’re how we live. Buying a large, hybrid, SUV still means you’re going to use more fuel than a smaller gas vehicle or a bicycle.
Yet you continue to try to rationalize the decision financially for yourself. Take a deep breath and listen to Ed Bagley Jr. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EicB1pkKCYk
EVERYONE rationalizes based on their own circumstances and priorities. I presented my analysis to illustrate what most people do, they weigh the pros and cons of many different issues. Few of us can buy whatever we want, for whatever reason(s), and even fewer of us can buy multiple vehicles for specialized, narrowly sets of tasks (an electric car for daily commutes, an SUV for longer trips, a convertible for cruising on nice days, a pickup to haul big stuff, etc . . . . ) What works for Ed is different than what works for me and what works for you.
Ford nailed the green viewpoint earlier this year when they spoofed Cadillac’s commercial for the ELR plug-in hybrid.
Cadillac: http://youtu.be/qGJSI48gkFc
Ford: http://youtu.be/jAN61QK0aUI
“That’s the upside of giving a damn.”
I can define pedantic “caring too much about unimportant rules or details and not enough about understanding or appreciating a subject” http://dictionary.cambridge.org/us/dictionary/american-english/pedantic
Pot, meet kettle . . . .
Kick off your shoes and relax your socks, chaps. Steve has a solid point that hybrids are very available for the mainstream market. JZ, you have a solid point that they’re not exactly in mass demand. To me, it’s going to be interesting to see how long it takes before driving an ICE is either government regulated and/or ridiculed by peers. Only time is gonna tell. Gonna be interesting.
Ridicule worked with the Hummer . . . . unfortunately, Prius drivers are starting to get negatively stereotyped, as well – google “prius drivers” and you’ll find, among others: http://www.oregonlive.com/commuting/index.ssf/2013/08/study_prius_bmw_drivers_the_bi.html . . http://www.alternet.org/culture/prius-drivers-most-obnoxious . . http://kenlevine.blogspot.com/2013/10/are-prius-owners-bad-drivers.html . . http://www.chron.com/cars/article/Why-Prius-owners-drive-like-that-4270897.php . . and http://jalopnik.com/5968942/this-prius-executed-a-stunning-display-of-parking-asshattery