Future Mainstream Automotive Tech, Poll Results
The first hybrid sold in America? If you said the Toyota Prius you’d be be wrong. Seven months before the Prius went on sale in the US, Honda introduced the 2-seat 3-door 3-cylinder Insight hybrid in December 1999.
For perspective, in 1999 GM produced 457 of the second generation EV1s. In 2000 Toyota brought the first generation Prius to America, a compact 4-door sedan. Hybrids were a niche product.
The documentary Who Killed the Electric Car was shown at the Sundance Film Festival in January 2006. However, by 2011:
The price premium for a hybrid compared to a similar conventional car is getting whittled down, in some cases to almost nothing–making fuel efficiency and low emissions increasingly a no-compromise affair. New affordable hybrid sedans, and the wider selection of a hybrid system as an option in a mainstream vehicle, are expected to at least double hybrid market share in the next five years, from about 2.5 percent in 2011 to 15 percent or higher in the next 10 to 15 years. That means millions of new hybrids on the road and a growing number of choices for consumers. (Hybrid Cars Go Mainstream)
The 2015 Lincoln MKZ Hybrid has the starting same price as the conventional model, $35,190. Hybrids, though not the majority, are now mainstream. Auto manufacturers use hybrid models to meet increasingly tough CAFE standards. Plug-in hybrids & electrics haven’t reached this level — yet. Which brings us to the results from last week’s poll:
Q: Which of the following, if any, will be mainstream within 20 years (pick up to 4)
- Electric vehicles 49 [34.51%]
- Plug-in hybrid vehicles 36 [25.35%]
- Self-driving vehicles 26 [18.31%]
- Fuel cell vehicles 18 [12.68%]
- None within 20 years 7 [4.93%]
- Unsure/no opinion 6 [4.23%]
I find the answers a bit confusing, more people think electrics will become mainstream than plug-in hybrids. The plug-in hybrid is often the stepping stone between a hybrid and full electrics — both for manufacturers and consumers. In the last 15 years hybrid/electric tech has come a long way, reflected in sales:
Sales of all electrified cars totaled 408,516 vehicles between January and August, down just a tick from the 408,694 vehicles sold during the same period last year.
Of that total, the bigger percentage gain came in plug-in hybrids, which grew from 28,241 vehicles sold to 40,748. Battery-powered EVs — with no gas engine at all — also grew, from 29,917 vehicles sold to 40,349.
But traditional hybrid sales fell from 350,530 vehicles from January to August last year to 327,418 during the same period in 2014.
The market share for electrified vehicles also fell. So far this year, they account for 3.66% of all vehicles sold, down from 3.84% for the same period a year ago. (Electrified car sales stall as buyers back away from hybrids)
As sales increase pieces will decrease, cheaper batteries will drive more sales:
The Gigafactory’s purpose is to streamline production of battery packs and bring down their cost, and subsequently the cost of electric cars. Tesla CEO Elon Musk has said the plant will be vital to the success of the Model 3, the brand’s upcoming lower-priced EV sedan. The Tesla Model S and Model X SUV, due later this year, will also benefit from the Gigafactory eventually, as the plant is expected to cut battery pack costs by at least 30 percent. (Tesla Chooses Nevada as Site for Gigafactory)
Ok, so Tesla will sell a less expensive model. What about the mass market?
Toyota and Tesla have been working together to produce battery packs and motors for the electrified RAV4 EV, but with the program soon coming to a close, the automakers are revealing they’re not ready to go their separate ways. The Japanese automaker has been vocal about wanting to continue working with the electric car company, while Tesla CEO Elon Musk recently revealed he’d like to see the same thing. (Musk: Tesla, Toyota Could Join Forces Again in Next Few Years)
Hard to say where we’ll be with plug-in hybrids & electric vehicles 20 years from now, but I think both will be mainstream within 15 years. Self-driving cars and fuel cell vehicles? I’m still not convinced. Here too we’re seeing repaid adoption:
The age of the self-driving car may soon be upon us. General Motors CEO Mary Barra revealed that we’ll start seeing semi-autonomous technologies in certain Cadillac models in as little as two years. (GM Semi-Autonomous Tech to Debut on All-New 2017 Cadillac Model)
Also see Entire Toyota Lineup to Feature Pre-Collision Tech by 2017.
Fuel cell vehicles are electric cars that generate electricity on-board rather than through the grid, solar, etc. Of the four I think fuel cells have the least chance of becoming mainstream in 20 years.None of us knows for sure, we’ll just have to revisit this issue in the future.
— Steve Patterson
I’m not so surprised by the results. Hybrids are more expensive and more complex than comparable ICE and all-electric vehicles because you’re paying for two, parallel, propulsion systems, not one. If you’re willing to plug in, one or more times, every day, all-electric is the way to go. And plug-in hybrids are more expensive than regular hybrids because they have more batteries – the cheapest “plain” Prius is $24,200, the cheapest plug-in one is $29,990, a 24% premium, while a Nissan Leaf can be had for $21,150 (after federal tax credits).
One hurdle I see for electric vehicles is the infrastructure that is missing on the residential side. While plugging into a 110 volt outlet is possible, charging is quicker at higher voltages. Prices quoted to install a home charging system are currently in the $1000-$2000 range. If you own your home and have a designated parking space, it’s one calculation. If you’re renting, and your landlord doesn’t / won’t cooperate, it’s another calculation. And if you don’t have a designated parking space (park on the street), it’s a third calculation. Sure, we can assume / hope that our employer will provide “free” charging for every employee that wants it, but there are few guarantees in life.
And, just a point of clarification – while the Insight and the Prius were the first hybrid automobiles that sold in large numbers, here, they certainly weren’t the first hybrid vehicles that sold in significant numbers. That honor would go to the railroads, where diesel-electric locomotives replaced steam locomotives in the 1950’s.
http://www.toyota.com/configurator/
http://www.nissanusa.com/electric-cars/leaf/?dcp=ppn.63023882.&dcc=0.240189300&searchtype=brandret&model=leaf_G
http://www.nissanusa.com/electric-cars/leaf/charging-range/charging/
http://automotivedigest.com/2014/02/fierce-competition-at-charging-stations-for-evs/
http://www.hybridcars.com/history-of-hybrid-vehicles/
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diesel_locomotive
I find it fascinating that people still can’t quite see the proximity of the autonomous vehicle horizon (only 18.31% of your pollers). Having been following this subject for the last feel years, I’m quite confidently willing to wager that in 20 years, if it’s even still legal to drive yourself on major roadways, the number of people who drive themselves will be on par with the number of people who still own flip phones today.
My prediction is that when that technology appears, the transition will occur as fast or faster than the smart-phone transition, and far more rapidly than most people could have anticipated. With google set to offer the autonomous transportation through Uber at an estimated $0.50/mile, you’ll witness rapid adoption and an almost parallel reduction in vehicle ownership in urban cores of most major cities. Unless some kind of affordable balance between time/mileage can be achieved, the suburban commuters will take a bit longer, as ownership will be a more economical and practical solution to commuting long-distances.
But none-the-less… the idea that autonomous vehicles WON’T be the dominant mode of (automotive) transportation seems almost laughable given the trajectory of this technology.
I’m still a happy owner of a flip phone, as are many other people I see still using them every day . . . . In 1947, another visionary, Harlan “Bartholomew advocated a course popular among civic leaders [of his time] to . . . move people around the St. Louis area, he advocated expressways, with buses replacing streetcars. In addition, he believed St. Louis needed thirty-five airports. Expressways materialized, but the airfield plan was unrealistic.”* Yes, I see a future where autonomous vehicles will see limited use; no, I don’t see one where autonomous vehicles are “the dominant mode of (automotive) transportation”. It’s one thing when the interwebs crash when Apple is doing a major announcement, it’s a whole ‘nuther thing when some automated system crashes and the vehicle(s) it’s controlling crashes and hurts or kills actual human beings.
Cash for clunkers was one effort to get old cars off the roads, annual inspections is another effort. We still have many, many vehicles that are operating, safely, on a daily basis, that are between 10 and 20 years old. We have quite a few vehicles more than 20 years old out on the roads on a regular basis. We have deer, drunks, jaywalkers and clueless cyclists (riding against traffic) who don’t follow the rules, to say nothing of kids and pets running loose that you damn well better not kill. EVERY vehicle on the road today has had one or more recalls, some for some very serious safety issues. We have snow and ice, not just sunny California freeways. I appreciate your optimism, I just don’t see it as a viable reality.
*http://www.h-net.org/reviews/showrev.php?id=14413
I guess we can’t really argue much over facts that don’t exist yet. But I’ve still not seen a single compelling argument that makes me believe this won’t happen.
Once people try commuting to work and running errands in the privacy of a small autonomous pod with the freedom to read/work/sleep and otherwise reclaim time that would have been spent watching traffic and steering the wheels, only a small minority of the population will care about controlling the car themselves.
As for the safety concerns: For years the statistics have already shown us that human drivers are the single greatest risk of injury and death in our current existence. I know it probably sounds crazy to some, but I suspect it won’t take long for people to start putting their faith in an autonomous driver, and directing ire at the people who are still causing accidents and endangering everyone else by driving themselves.
Let me paint this picture. Here in San Francisco, I’ve not met a single person who doesn’t use Uber/Lyft/Sidecar on a regular or semi-regular basis, I know fewer people who own vehicles here than any other place I’ve been outside of New York, and most of the people who do own a car use it sparingly and second to bus/bike/train/Uber/Lyft/etc. Furthermore, if Google can offer their service at the rate they suggest, it would be cheaper for me to commute to work by autonomous car than it is to take the bus or any other non-human-powered mode.
So in this city alone, you already have the foundation for massive, mainstream adoption. Once autonomous vehicles are proven and become dominant in a city like SF, I have little doubt they will sweep the urban core of every major city in America.
Of course, we’re only speculating here, and there’s no point in convincing each other one way or another. But I’ve had similar conversations with quite a few people over the years. Most of them who found the prospect dubious, have over time come to see the future unfolding in a similar manner as I’ve outlined.
In 20 years maybe we can come back to this post and find out who was right. 😉
San Francisco is more of an anomaly than the norm – high density, good transit, high incomes, tough parking – it ain’t the midwest nor the rust belt. Try going to Phoenix, Pittsburgh, Orlando or Des Moines, where the average, middle class people live and work, and your perspective would likely be more like mine. And you’re right, we won’t know who’s right anytime soon. I seen a lot of advances in automobiles since the 1950’s, the vast majority of them being incremental in nature. What you’re expecting / advocating for is a wholesale change in how we get around.
And I don’t disagree that autonomous vehicles would excel in situations where humans are weak, my concerns are in situations where humans are strong(er). Autonomous vehicles are akin to robots in manufacturing. They’re very, very good at repetitive tasks – they don’t get bored, they don’t get tired, they don’t get angry, they stay focused on the task at hand and they don’t get chemically impaired. But when they fail, they fail either completely or spectacularly.
Autonomous vehicles are NOT going to be maintenance free. When you own or lease your own vehicle, you set your own standards. With communal vehicles, you’re relying on something or someone to set and maintain some level of acceptability. It’s much like the arguments for and against public transit – if all you want is a seat and ride, transit is good. But if you want something nicer, including a higher level of cleanliness, and are willing to pay for it, that Lexus or Tesla is better than a taxi or transit coach.
The real challenge will be in staging all these pods. Much like public transit or zipcar, if you’re looking for something at peak service times, you’ll have options. But there will invariably be the time that you walk out of a bar at closing time, after a concert or some evening when you’re trying to get home from work and they’ll all be gone. What happens then?! Will you call/text/tweet pod central and they’ll send over an empty one? What happens if you walk out and some douche has puked or pissed in it, and it’s the last one left? What happens if you walk out and some homeless dude is living in it?
In a place like San Francisco, where real estate for any vehicle is tight, finding spaces for something the size of a smart will be easier to find than finding spaces for something the size of a Prius, but the beauty of transit or taxis is that you don’t need ANY space to store them in highly congested areas. Pod users aren’t going to be much different than SOV users – they’re gonna want their pod and they’re gonna want it here and now. Autonomous operation won’t solve that part of the equation; if anything, it will exacerbate the situation, since there will be fewer financial disincentives to the expectation that “my” vehicle will always be available.
Yes, we’ll continue to see advances in electronic aids – lane deviation warnings, crash avoidance, even speed modulation, with vehicles increasingly talking to each other. But until the built environment becomes as predictable as the guideway for an airport people mover (Tampa, Dallas, Denver), we’re going to have to keep the human as an integral part of the operating system, even if it’s just as a redundant backup!
I honestly don’t get people who don’t enjoy driving. I never feel more free than sitting alone in the driver’s seat of my car with free time on my hands.