What Peak Oil Will Mean for St. Louis
Peak Oil is not a new term but many are not familiar with the concept. The basic principal is world-wide oil production is a bell curve and that at some point in time we will hit a peak with production just meeting demand. After that point the production begins to slowly decrease. We are decades away from running out of oil but some say we’ve already peaked. Others say it will happen in the next few years. If demand decreases along with production you don’t have a problem. However, world demand for oil is on the rise. Decreased supply and increased demand translates into crisis. So what will all this mean for the St. Louis region?
In the immediate term we are not going to see much change. Gasoline, electricity and natural gas prices will rise. Some will buy more efficient cars. Others, like me, will begin cycling more and will take mass transit for some trips. Energy prices cannot rise without other goods and services going up as well. This will slow the economy. The situation will only get worse. The U.S. will end up fighting China and India over remaining supplies. Our might will only go so far and will simply postpone the inevitable – we must dramatically revise our lifestyles to consume a fraction of the current energy.
Rising energy costs are going to shock the very nature of the U.S., and thus the world, economy. Some are predicting the end of Bush’s term in the White House will be much like Hoover’s last years as the depression took its toll. This is not a partisan comment because the same could be said if Kerry would have won the election. It is simply a matter of who is in place when reality hits and that means Republicans will take the hit for our decades of sprawl. The 2008 elections will see a shift to Democratic control of the White House as well as either the Senate or Congress (maybe both). National Democrats are no better prepared than Republicans to deal with the crisis. The benefit is few will have time to worry about gay marriage.
But what about St. Louis specifically?
Automotive plants in the St. Louis region will likely all be shut down. The best we can hope for is one of the plants to make a hybrid vehicle as demand for anything else will slow to a crawl. Enterprise Rent-A-Car is going to struggle as people won’t rent cars for trips and such. The converse to that is many will downsize to only one car per family and they may rent a newer car if they travel.
Major highway projects such as the rebuilding of highway 40 may proceed simply as public works projects to prop up the economy. New highway spending projects will by curbed dramatically. In the short term buses will become more important as people struggle with high fuel costs. Everything outside our I-270 loop will be obsolete. Some exceptions include more pedestrian areas such as old town Florissant and New Town at St. Charles. Still, these areas are not self sufficient. Indeed, our region is not self sufficient.
But what region is self sufficient? We ship food all over the country. Products are imported from foreign countries and from all over the U.S. That will all change due to shipping costs. That $4 caesar salad will become $10 if shipped across the country. Metropolitan regions all over the country will be forced to become more self sustaining.
The St. Louis region will do well I think. We’ve got an excellent work force and some very creative people. Southern Illinois will be great farmland to grow locally needed produce. Our city yards have a nice size for growing our own gardens. The inner ring suburbs will boom even more as people from the hinterlands attempt to move in closer. While places in Kirkwood and Ferguson are not close to downtown they are much closer than St. Peters. They also have their own downtown areas that will become more important as our population becomes increasingly pedestrian.
Areas such as Kirkwood and Ferguson were railroad suburbs of St. Louis. We’ll see, over the next 20 years, a return to rail for transportation of goods and people. These former rail inner ring suburbs are well situated. Existing rail lines and highway rights of way will be critical as we switch to more mass transit. MetroLink expansion will be sped up to create work and get those that are employed to work. St. Charles County will beg for some light rail but most of its residents are so spread out it will not be feasible to go beyond the interstate. Cul-de-sac subdivisions, especially those in St. Charles County, will decline in much the same way inner cities did half a century ago.
It will take at least a generation to work through the transition from a fossil fuel economy to a more self sustaining one. St. Louis city and the inner suburbs will become increasingly dense and great places to live. Street life will be outstanding, much like it was 100 years ago (without the horse manure). My friends that have young children will raise them in a much more environmentally conscience than we were. Their kids will see the rebirth of St. Louis of a pedestrian St. Louis despite the hardships from the economy. Those of us more set in our ways will need to adjust.
I’m planning my garden now. I’ve done the garden thing before but never to provide much beyond cooking herbs (I did have one good season of leeks). This time I’ll have to take it more seriously. I may also move to a smaller place, somehow a 2,642sf house for one seems excessive given the cost of energy. A roommate will be an option but that is a sad prospect as I approach my 40s. Part of my space is a corner storefront which may prove invaluable in the new local economy. I will likely keep my car since it still looks great and is paid for. A Vespa (or similar) scooter will likely be on my list for the next motorized vehicle I purchase. Maybe used, maybe new. We will see many more motorcycles and scooters on our roads and far fewer Expeditions.
While the new loft dwellers won’t have a yard to grow their produce they will also be in the best location to be car-free. They’ll have the option to walk, bike or take a scooter to their destination. The key here is we will return to the times when 5 miles is a huge distance from home. Yes, five miles will be a long way away. Ok, maybe 10 miles but anything beyond that will be considered traveling.
In the next 20 years or so we will see the reversal of many bad things. We will return to local economies with your neighbor owning the store where you shop. We as a society will become more connected with our neighbors and city. We will return to the times when we shop at locally owned and operated businesses. It will be a rough transition but well worth the effort.
So you’ve read this far and I’m sure many of you are ready to challenge me on my theories. Before you rush to the comments section please consider this. The concept of peak oil and the coming peak oil crisis is not some liberal hippie notion. In fact, most of the experts are oil industry millionaires. One of the more vocal is T. Boone Pickens. As a quick aside, one of my brothers is a petroleum engineer that received scholarships from Mr. Pickens in the late 70s and early 80s. They had a chance to meet a number of years later when my brother was working for SoCal (Southern California Gas). Mr. Pickens, to put it mildly, is highly regarded in the oil and gas industry. Peak Oil is a serious issue that has not been properly addressed by federal, state or local governments.
I’ve only begun to touch the surface of what Peak Oil will mean to our built environment in the St. Louis area. Please share your thoughts in the comments section.
– Steve
