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St. Louis Population May Drop Below 300K In 2020 Census

We’re at the midpoint between the 2010 & 2020 Census, in six years we’ll have the results of the 2020 Census. St. Louis’ population peaked in the 1950 Census — dropping in the following 6. Here’s a quick look:

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The 70s was the decade of the greatest loss in terms of total numbers and percentage.

I think these figures are a reflection of what was happening in the city & region in each decade.  In the 50s you had the start of Urban Renewal Programs clearing out older neighborhoods, end of restrictive covenants/white flight, and initial highway construction in the city, in St. Louis County new subdivisions sprang up to accommodate the middle classes fleeing the city. This continued in the 60s & 70s. In the 80s & 90s it there wasn’t the big Urban Renewal or highways — decay was allowed to take hold in many areas. Now you began to see Black flight as middle class African-Americans left the city, largely for North County.

This continued in the 2000s but downtown and its perimeter areas we saw a boom in loft conversions and the addition of other new housing units in the central city. A result of the 2000s building boom, we saw the 2010 Census loss drop below 10%, as the city finally offered a little of the urban/walkable neighborhoods a segment of the general public desires. To be sure, most of the market likes suburbia.

Source: City of St. Louis
Four of our 28 wards showed an increase, the biggest drops came in North city wards. Source: City of St. Louis

For decades the city tried to remake itself into the suburban ideal — but this failed to appeal to those seeking suburbia as well as those seeking urban/walkable lifestyles.  Some, sadly, think the city should continue down the suburbanization path — even though we have decades of huge losses to show that strategy is a total failure. Just as urbanists aren’t drawn to places like New Town St. Charles, suburbanites aren’t drawn to our city version of suburbia. Both are compromises that attract a small segment.  The only strategy to limit losses in the city is urbanization.

The last 5 years we haven’t been doing much to add units in existing urban/walkable neighborhoods nor have we worked to turn more in the urban/walkable direction. This is why I think we’ll see another loss in 2020. If we lose another 28,895 people that would represent a 9% loss, and put us at 290,399. A loss of 19,294 would put us at 300,000 — this would be a 6% loss. I think our loss will be between 20,000-25,000.

North St. Louis County will see middle class blacks & whites leave in large numbers, but see an influx of lower income blacks from North city for newer housing. Of course this is all speculation at this point, the count will start in 5 years and we’ll know the results in 6.  Ward boundaries will be redrawn based on these numbers — down to 14 from 28 based on a charter change approved a few years ago. We still have five years to take action.

In the Sunday Poll more than half also think we’ll see a loss, while nearly 40% think we’ll see a gain.    Here are the results:

Q: St. Louis’ 2010 population was 8.3% less than 2000 — the smallest decline since the 1950 peak. What change will the 2020 Census reveal?

  1. Less than 5% LOSS 10 27.78%]
  2. Less than 1% GAIN 7 19.44%]
  3. Less than 10% LOSS 4 11.11%]
  4. TIE: 3 [8.33%]
    1. Less than 5% GAIN
    2. Greater than 10% LOSS
  5. TIE: 2 [5.56%]
    1. Less than 1% LOSS
    2. Less than 10% GAIN
    3. Greater than 10% GAIN
    4. Unchanged
  6. Unsure/No Answer 1 [2.78%]

My curiosity is if the Wards/Census tracks that had gains in 2010 can hold onto those in 2020.

— Steve Patterson

 

Contractor Thought The Public Sidewalk Was A Good Location For Construction Signs

Recently, while taking 14th Street, I noticed construction signs limiting the width of the too-narrow public sidewalk — the East side between Olive & Locust — adjacent to the main library.

Looking North
Looking North from Olive you see the first sign on the sidewalk. Behind it is another on the sidewalk and a third in the grass to the right of the sidewalk.
This is the 2nd sign on the sidewalk, a bus stop is just beyond
This is the 2nd sign on the sidewalk, a bus stop served by five MetroBus routes is just beyond

I posted one image to Facebook & Twitter with the caption: “14th street sidewalk almost completely blocked by temp road sign #ADA” A response on Twitter suggested I tweet this to the CSB (aka Citizens Service Bureau). Instead I emailed two people at the Streets Dept, copying two from the Office on the Disabled.  Streets quickly identified the culprit — hired contractor Intren — working for Ameren.

The two signs on the sidewalk were reduced to one on the grass.
The two signs on the sidewalk were reduced to one on the grass.
The 3rd sign that was always on the grass --likely because they didn't want to cover/block the fire hydrant.
The 3rd sign that was always on the grass –likely because they didn’t want to cover/block the fire hydrant.

Temporary signs are a necessity, but so is the sidewalk next to the main library used by 5 MetroBus routes. The sidewalk is too narrow for the pedestrian volume but the historic library landscaping and the street width prevents it from being widened.  Once again, people unaware/unconcerned about pedestrians.

— Steve Patterson

 

Will the Urban League’s New Ferguson Center Be Urban or Suburban?

This afternoon the Urban League is going to give more details about something they released on Friday, a new center at the site of the burn-out QuikTrip on West Florissant in Ferguson:

On Friday, the Urban League said the center would be “an important extension of its services in North County to further the League’s mission of empowering communities and changing lives.”

The center will “expand the Urban League’s work to broaden access to education/job training, employment and economic self-reliance for residents of the St. Louis metro area,” the League said in a news release.

A news conference is set for Monday afternoon to announce details, which the Urban League would not provide Friday. (Post-Dispatch)

Job training is needed in Ferguson, a better-trained workforce will benefit the entire region.

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The former QuikTrip at 9420 W. Florissant on  August 16, 2014, click image for map
St  Louis County records list the irregularly-shaped property as being 1.14 acres.
St Louis County records list the irregularly-shaped property as being 1.14 acres.

St  Louis County records list the property as being 1.14 acres with irregular borders. This afternoon we might see preliminary ideas for the planned building. Hopefully the Urban League is planning to build the structure out at the street corner, close to the public sidewalk. My fear is they’ll set a building at the back, behind parking. The latter would send the wrong message to a community with many who use sidewalks and public transit. Since they’ll be starting with a cleared site I’m hopeful, I applaud the effort but remain cautious until I see specifics.

The press conference will be held 3pm at the Urban League’s non-walkable St. Louis County Operations Center at 8960 Jennings Station Road. To be fair, it’s located in a rented former grocery store built in 1967.

— Steve Patterson.

 

Sunday Poll: What Change In Population Will The 2020 Census Reveal?

March 15, 2015 Featured, Sunday Poll 7 Comments
Please vote in the poll, located in the right sidebar
Please vote in the poll, located in the right sidebar

In 1962 something happened nobody 100 — even 50 — years earlier would’ve predicted:

St. Louis County overtakes St. Louis City in population

The American Statistical Association’s St. Louis Chapter Metropolitan Census Committee listed the population of St. Louis County as 762,000, and the population of St. Louis City at 740,000. For the first time in history, the population of St. Louis County exceeded that of St. Louis City. The recent creation of the Interstate Highway System would drastically change the lives of American cities forever, with St. Louis taking a particularly extreme stance as those with means fled outwards from the center. St. Louis County’s population had begun rising steadily around the turn of the century, but in the post-World War II years, it jumped with shocking speed. From 1950 to 1960, the population of St. Louis County jumped from 406,349 to 703,532. Meanwhile, St. Louis City had experienced its first population loss in history in the 1960 census. Dark days were still ahead… from 1970 – 1980, St. Louis City would lose 27% of its population. (STL250 via Facebook)

The above text isn’t totally correct — the 1940 Census showed a net loss of less than 1%, followed by a 5% increase in 1950. St. Louis County has had losses in only two Census counts: a 90%+ plus in 1880 after the city succeeded and a 1.7% decline in 2010.

Here’s today’s poll question: St. Louis’ 2010 population was 8.3% less than 2000 — the smallest decline since the 1950 peak. What change will the 2020 Census reveal?

The poll, as always, is at the top of the right sidebar on desktops — mobile users can switch to the desktop view at the bottom of their browser.

— Steve Patterson

 

Tax Scams Make Sensational News But Media Fails To Mention Adjusting Withholding To Reduce/Eliminate Refund

March 13, 2015 Crime, Economy, Featured, Media, Taxes Comments Off on Tax Scams Make Sensational News But Media Fails To Mention Adjusting Withholding To Reduce/Eliminate Refund
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I’ve circled the three places on KMOV’s home page where “Tax Cheats” stories appeared

When we watch television (vs Netflix, etc) it’s usually CBS — KMOV 4.1 here — unfortunately their promos on tax scams/cheats seem nonstop. Wednesday morning I checked local news sources for similar reports. KMOV had 3 mentions on their homepage, the others didn’t — but many had stories from this month:

These stories are designed to frighten you into worrying about someone steeling your refund — you go to file and someone else has already filed a return for you — taking your refund.  Meanwhile, commercials for auto dealers talk about using your refund as a down payment — some will even double it.  So a $3,000 refund becomes a $6,000 down payment.

Many get excited by a big refund — the bigger the better. The ideal, however, is little or no refund. Why? If you get a huge refund it means you’ve lent the federal & state governments your money interest-free.  A $7800 refund means you could’ve had another $15 in your pocket every week — $65/month.  I know some people use their refund as a savings plan, if so, put that amount into a savings plan every pay period rather than letting Uncle Sam hold it. In savings it’ll earn interest and should an emergency arise  — like car trouble — you can access your money.

You want your withholding set so you get little to nothing back at tax time. You can use the IRS’s Withholding Calculator to determine how your W-4 should be completed.

If you get a big annual tax refund you are leaving yourself vulnerable to fraud.

— Steve Patterson

 

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