2020 Census Prediction: St. Louis City & County Will Each Lose Population

The decennial census is ramping up for an important task three months away:

The U.S. census counts each resident of the country, where they live on April 1, every ten years ending in zero. The Constitution mandates the enumeration to determine how to apportion the House of Representatives among the states. (U.S. Census)

The 2010 census officially showed population losses for St. Louis City (a smaller percent than prior decades), St. Louis County (first time losing population), and a small gain for Missouri (resulting in the loss of a seat in the U.S. House of Representatives).

I haven’t seen anything happen during the last ten years to convince me we won’t see a repeat for 2020. Yes, St. Louis’ central corridor will again see gains, but the net for the city will be a loss. The percentage of loss may drop again, but that’s small consolation.

I have no doubt St. Louis County will see another net loss, as the exodus from North County continues. Hopefully I’ll be proven wrong about the city & county, but I don’t think I’ll have to eat my words.

Here are the results of the recent non-scientific Sunday Poll:

Q: Will the City & County population change with the 2020 census?

1. St. Louis City & County will both have population losses: 16 [64%]
2. St. Louis County will have a population increase, St. Louis City a loss: 4 [16%]
3. St. Louis City & County will both have population increases: 3 [12%]
4. St. Louis City will have a population increase, St. Louis County a loss: 2 [8%]
5. Unsure/no answer: 0 [0%]

Obviously the majority agree with me.

Missouri is expected to hold onto its congressional seats, but Illinois won’t be so fortunate. Illinois is one of ten states expected to lose a seat(s).

New census figures will be used to redraw everything from the city’s wards (dropping from 28 to 14) to House & Senate districts. New wards/districts will be in place for 2022 elections.

— Steve Patterson

Future Medical Marijuana Cultivation Locations in the City of St. Louis

Last week Missouri announced which applicants will be awarded licenses to grow medical marijuana.

The Missouri Department of Health and Senior Services announced the winning 60 applicants for cultivation facilities sought by an estimated 500 companies hoping to cash in on the legalization of pot.
Approval of the growing operations comes just days after the state awarded licenses to companies seeking to transport cannabis products. Among those are companies in St. Louis, Festus, Eureka and Florissant. (Post-Dispatch)

Seven licensees will be located in the City of St. Louis.  Three will operate out of the same large warehouse, so there’s five total locations.

I decided to look into each location.

7110-7140 North Broadway

• Property Owner: 7110 North Broadway LLC  (Sauget IL)
• Year Built: 3 buildings in 1941, and 1 in 1947
• Neighborhood: North Riverfront
• Ward: 2nd
• Applicants: Kindbio LLC (7110), Certified Alternative Medicine (7140), VMO-Ops Inc. (7110)
• Comments: I imagine the Broadway facade was originally a beige brick, though perhaps reddish. Located across Broadway from Bellefontaine Cemetery, this location has easy highway access. Separate licenses have been issued to companies that will transport cannabis product, so having three facilities at one location may prove advantageous from a logistical perspective.

3417 South Broadway (part of the large Lemp Brewery complex)

• Property Owner: Historic Lemp Brewery LLC
• Year Built: Early 20th century
• Neighborhood: Marine Villa
• Ward: 9th
• Applicant: Blue Arrow Holdings LLC
• Comments: This is large building, though small compared to others on the former Lemp Brewery site. My guess is this will give this cultivator room to expand as demand warrants.

1315 Cherokee St

• Property Owner: Mound City Partners LLC
• Year Built: 1966
• Neighborhood: Benton Park
• Ward: 9th
• Applicant: BeLeaf Medical LLC
• Comments: Local news reports showed cute storefronts near Jefferson when mentioning one cultivation facility would be on Cherokee Street, another showed the north side of the Lemp Brewery across the street. This is the most out of character property on Cherokee Street.

1400 North 7th Street

• Property Owner: Northside Regeneration (Paul McKee)
• Year Built: 1959
• Neighborhood: Columbus Square
• Ward: 5th
• Applicant: TC AppliCo LLC
• Comments: This is just around the corner from our apartment, so I was hoping this applicant would be approved. Will be nice seeing it occupied.

2727 Hamilton Ave

• Property Owner: St. Louis’ Land Reutilization Authority (LRA)
• Year Built: 1923
• Neighborhood: Wells-Goodfellow
• Ward: 22nd
• Applicant: Growing Jobs Missouri LLC
• Comments: This is probably the most ambitious/challenging location of this list — but easily one of the most interesting architecturally. A 1909 Sanborn Fire Insurance map indicates the adjacent warehouses were part of A. Leschen and Sons Rope — manufacturers of wire rope and tramways, etc.  The building is very open — literally. Hopefully renovations can happen quickly, though not sure how long it will take for the applicant to secure title from the LRA. The Wells-Goodfellow neighborhood made headlines earlier this year after a concentrated effort to raze buildings deemed beyond renovation — see Options For The Wells Goodfellow Neighborhood. It would be great if, as the applicant name suggests, this location generated new jobs for local residents.

So there you have it, the five city locations for the seven applicants recently awarded cultivation licenses. All will need investment to get ready to operate as an indoor growing operation. As this is a new highly-competitive business we will have to see how each performs, it’s possible not all will survive their initial first year or two in business.  Others may thrive and need to expand in place, or relocate to larger facilities.

Really looking forward to seeing where the city’s dispensaries will be located.

— Steve Patterson

Sunday Poll: Will The City & County Population Increase or Decrease With The 2020 Census?

The new year will bring with it the decennial U.S. Census:

The U.S. census counts each resident of the country, where they live on April 1, every ten years ending in zero. The Constitution mandates the enumeration to determine how to apportion the House of Representatives among the states. (U.S. Census Bureau)

After the 2010 Census Missouri lost one seat in the U.S. House of Representatives.

Today’s poll isn’t about Missouri, but the population of both the City of Saint Louis and St. Louis County.

This poll will automatically close at 8pm tonight. My thoughts and the non-scientific poll results on Wednesday morning.

— Steve Patterson

Will Know In February 2020 How Well My Cancer Treatment Is Working

This year, like most, has had ups & downs. The big downer this year was when I was told I have Metastatic Renal Cell Carcinoma, aka Stage 4 Kidney Cancer.

My two prior posts:

• October 31st
• November 29th

Today I want to talk about kidney cancer and treatments. When a person has a small tumor in a kidney (stage 1) the solution is usually to surgically remove the tumor. Unfortunately, kidney cancer is often hard to detect — so it spreads — metastatic or stage 4.

One of my kidneys is now completely tumor. We can live with one kidney but surgery would’ve delayed treatment. My tumors have been growing and spreading since my initial CT scans so further delay wasn’t an option.

I’ve had two treatments so far — the 2nd was on Monday. Side effects have been minor, mostly greater fatigue. My 3rd treatment is next month.

Chemotherapy, right? No. Radiation? Nope. Immunotherapy!

Wait, what?

Cancer treatments like chemotherapy and radiation use medications or high-energy X-rays to kill cancer cells. Immunotherapy is different because it uses your own immune system to fight off the cancer.

Some immunotherapy treatments help your immune system find the cancer or work harder to attack it. Others give you man-made versions of proteins or other substances to help your body fight the disease. Immunotherapy is a type of biologic therapy.

Immunotherapy is approved to treat certain kinds of cancer, including melanoma, lymphoma, and lung cancer. Immune-based treatments for many other types are being tested in clinical trials. (WebMD)

As chemotherapy has been ineffective with kidney cancer, I’m fortunate to be getting the latest in immunotherapy treatment. My treatment is two different drugs administered intravenously every few weeks. I’m also in a clinical trial testing a third drug taken orally every day. It’s a double blind study — neither I nor my doctor know if I’m getting the third drug or the placebo.

In February I’ll get another scan — our first chance to see how well my immune system has attacked the cancer. A good result will be either no growth or shrinkage of the tumors.

— Steve Patterson

‘Die Hard’ Is A Christmas Movie If You’re A Fan

The recent Sunday Poll was about the 1988 Bruce Willis action film Die Hard being a Christmas movie, or not. Here are the non-scientific results:

Q: Agree or disagree: The 1988 movie ‘Die Hard’ is a Christmas movie.

• Strongly agree: 7 [31.82%]
• Agree: 2 [9.09%]
• Somewhat agree: 3 [13.64%]
• Neither agree or disagree: 1 [4.55%]
• Somewhat disagree: 2 [9.09%]
• Disagree: 2 [9.09%]
• Strongly disagree: 4 [18.18%]
• Unsure/No Answer: 1 [4.55%]

My husband loves this movie as much as Home Alone, so my opinion doesn’t really matter. The following comes closest to my own thoughts:

The film is a deceptively rich text that crucially hinges on John McClane flying across the country to reconcile with his estranged wife over the holidays. That is, all things considered, pretty damn Christmas of him. Pair that with the bond he builds with Sgt. Al Powell via walkie-talkie over the course of the film (the moment they finally meet at the end of the movie and greet each other as old friends gets me as good as any great Christmas Movie) and you’ve got the makings of all the naked sentiment and emotional exploration required of a Christmas Movie.

The catch is that while the events of Die Hard are technically instigated by the holiday season, Christmas isn’t the lens through which these relationships are explored so much as the trauma stemming from the attack on Nakatomi Plaza is. John and Holly don’t reconcile because it’s Christmas so much as they reconcile because they’ve both seen the other narrowly escape death (multiple times) and had to contemplate living in a world without one another. Al and John’s friendship stems from survival and personal growth, neither of which have any concrete tie to the holiday. It’s a great movie, a great movie that takes place on Christmas. But don’t get it twisted: it’s not a Christmas Movie. (Geek)

Being set during Christmas doesn’t make a movie a Christmas movie. At least not for me, maybe for you it does. I think a movie you like a movie set during Christmas can become a classic Christmas movie for you.

Enjoy your day!

— Steve Patterson