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Poll, Population Goal for St. Louis in 2050

The population of the City of St. Louis is currently less than any point in the 20th century.  Our population is what it was way back in the 1880s.

Source: Wikipedia
Source: Wikipedia

Our population decline was as spectacular as the climb.  Both were the result of a number of factors.  My poll this week, visible in the upper right corner of the main page, is asking what St. Louis’ target population should be by 2050.

“The U.S. has nearly 305 million people today, and is projected to reach 400 million by 2039 and 439 million in 2050.” [Wikipedia]  With the U.S. population expected to rise substantially in the next 40 years, mostly in larger regions, what might we expect for the City of St. Louis and the St. Louis region?

I think St. Louis should work to keep pace with the overall growth in our national population.  That would put us at 508,000, roughly, by 2050.    Such an increase isn’t going to happen overnight and it won’t happen if the regional population doesn’t increase as well.

Greater St. Louis has a population of 2.8 million.  If our region were to grow at the projected national rate we’d have just over 4 million by 2050.  Of course some regions will grow more while others will grow less. If the city and region do not grow at all that would be shocking and very telling of major issues.

I think at both the core and regional level we can take actions today to ensure things are rosey by 2050.  A strong urban, walkable, transit-cvonnected core is important to the future health of the entire region.  Our actions could have the reverse impact — causing us to miss a great opportunity to fill in our core (city + inner suburbs).

So thae the poll and share your thoughts below.

 

Happy Birthday to Me!

February 28, 2009 Steve Patterson 12 Comments

Today is my 42nd birthday.

As most of you know, I came very close to not reaching 41 due to a stroke on 2/1/08. But I did survive and on February 25th last year I was moved from Saint Louis University Hospital to St. Mary’s/SSM Rehab.  That day I remember seeing one of my brothers and a cousin.  I don’t remember the ambulance ride to St. Mary’s at all.

A few days later my friends came to my room to help me celebrate my 41st birthday. I remember them being there.  I “borrowed” my own iPhone and called my friend Rich Kenney in Seattle after I learned he had flown in to see me.  He was pleasantly shocked to hear my voice.  At that point I did not yet grasp how long I had been out or how close to death I had come.  March 7th I will be flying to Seattle visit Rich for Spring Break – a well deserved getaway.

I hope to have many more birthdays.

 

Home Ownership & Mortgages

This post is two posts in one.  The first part is a guest piece by regular reader Jim Zavist.  The second part is a press release about a related event at SLU this Friday.

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The Mortgage Crisis

A guest editorial by Jim Zavist, AIA

The current mortgage “crisis” has generated a lot of discussion and created a lot of potential “solutions”.  I’m also old enough to remember the previous “crisis”, the Savings and Loan Meltdown of the 1980’s, and I’m seeing one big difference between then and now.  The biggest change now is that there seems to be an assumption that homeowners who can’t pay their mortgages somehow “deserve” to be given a way to stay in “their” homes.  Back in the ’80’s, homes were foreclosed, people were evicted, and because the S&L’s couldn’t deal with the volume of foreclosed properties, the federal Resolution Trust Agency ended up with a lot of properties that were resold at whatever the market said they were worth.  So, while some people lost their homes, just as many people got some great deals and were able to start down their path to the American Dream.

Bottom line, if you’re still able to make either your original or your current mortgage payment, you won’t be living on the street.  Yes, you’ll probably be paying rent instead of a mortgage, but guess what, if you can’t sell your home and you can’t refinance your home, because its value has dropped, maybe substantially, you don’t have any equity!  Whatever money you put down and whatever you invested in improving the property is gone.  It’s the big downside to investing in anything – sometimes things go poorly and you lose some or all of your investment!  Sure, it affects your credit rating negatively if you have to give up your home to foreclosure or a short sale.  It may even seem that it’s not “fair”.  But it’s part of being an adult – it’s time to cut your losses and move on.

As has been noted multiple times in the media over the past few days, 92% of the mortgage holders today are still making their payments on time – only 8% are falling behind.  I’m one of those 92%.  I’ve been making mortgage payments for 25 years; unfortunately, not all on the same property (otherwise it could be close to being paid off).  But, before I bought my first place, I became educated.  I’ve always put at least 10% down and always had a fixed-rate mortgage (including one at 12%!), so I’ve never had to face rates that adjusted upwards, as many ARM’s are apparently prepared to do soon.  I also never bought into refinancing every time the rates dropped half a point or to finance extraneous luxuries (like a car or a cruise) by pulling out the last couple of years’ appreciation.  And I’m not alone – 9 out of 10 people are riding out the current drop/correction in home values, even though it may mean cutting back in other areas.  Real estate shouldn’t be viewed as a piggy bank.  It should be viewed as a long-term investment, one that will, hopefully, eventually be completely paid off.

With the clarity of 20/20 hindsight, we’re relatively fortunate that the St. Louis area didn’t see the huge increases in home values that other parts of the country experienced, since we’re not seeing a huge drop, either.  Sure, we have pockets where too many property owners succumbed to the lure of easy money, but, overall, we don’t seem to being hit nearly as hard as places like, say, Tampa, where property values are down nearly 40%.  Because of that, and even though I agree the government needs to do “something” to “fix” the economy, I’m not all that comfortable with several of the President’s proposals to “help people stay in their homes”.  The fundamental problem is that home values simply became higher than actual buyers were willing to pay.  They will continue to fall until buyers are willing to buy.  And while there are concerns being expressed about the availability of credit, in the world of home buying, if you have good credit and an appropriate down payment and you want to buy a home around here, you can do it!  Realistically, there is no “right” to home ownership.  It’s something that’s earned, and we’re all learning a hard lesson.

Jim Zavist

Local Architect Jim Zavist was born in upstate New York, raised in Louisville KY, spent 30 years in Denver Colorado and relocated to St. Louis in 2005.

Property Ownership and Economic Stability Focus of Symposium
at Saint Louis University School of Law

WHO: Saint Louis University School of Law and Saint Louis University Public Law Review

WHAT: Property  Ownership and Economic Stability: A Necessary Relationship? This symposium brings together a group of leading scholars and practitioners to examine the relationship between property ownership and economic stability.

WHEN: 8:30 a.m. to 4 p.m.; Friday, Feb. 27, 2009

WHERE: Saint Louis University School of Law, William H. Kniep Courtroom, 3700 Lindell Blvd., St. Louis, MO 63108

WHY: The recent instability in America’s housing markets has demonstrated the complex relationship between property ownership and economic stability for lower-income families. Until recently, many experts argued that low-income families could not hope to achieve the “American dream” without owning their own homes. Increasingly, events from the past year are calling the assumptions underlying these assertions into question.

Leading scholars from prestigious law schools across the country join real estate and urban planning experts — including Richard Baron of McCormack Baron Salazar — to discuss an array of pressing property ownership issues, including barriers to creating affordable housing, property rights in the international context and the changing definition of property ownership in the United States.

The symposium offers 6.0 CLE credits in Missouri.

For a detailed schedule of speakers and topics or to register, go to law.slu.edu/news/conferences/property.

 

First Month of Google Analytics

February 22, 2009 Site Info 2 Comments

I’ve always had access to stats for my blog since its inception on Halloween 2004.  But until a month ago I had not had Google Analytics.  But I now have had it for a full 30 days.  Here are some of the numbers for January 22nd through February 20th:

  • 20,782 visits
  • 33,040 page views
  • 9,592 absolute unique visitors

More visitors use the Firefox browser than Internet Explorer.

Here are a few more bits of info:

  • 97% of the visits were from the United States.  Canada was 2nd with the UK 3rd.
  • 68% of the visits came from the state of Missouri. Rounding out the top 10 states were Illinois, California, New York, Texas, Florida, Virginia, Minnesota, the District of Columbia and Colorado.  I had visits from all 50 states.
  • The top 10 cities in Missouri were St. Louis (duh), St. Ann, Maryland Heights, Fenton, Ballwin, Lake St. Louis, Columbia, Hazelwood, Arnold, and Jefferson City.
  • 84.36% were from Windows with 14.50% from Macintosh  (smart choice).  Linux was 3rd with the iPhone 4th, each with less than 1%
  • Of the Windows visits, 79.55% were from XP with only 17.72% from Vista.  Just under 2% were from Windows 2000.
  • The most common connection was Charter Communications
  • 22% of visits came from Google vs 3% from Yahoo and fewer than 1% from MSN.
  • The top 3 blogs referring people to my site are Ecology of Absence, STL Rising and STL Dotage.  Thank you gentlemen!
  • More than half the traffic came directly to the site.
  • 971 page titles were viewed in the period.

I’m a geek, I just love this stuff.   It will be interesting to see the numbers after I have 6-12 months of stats.  Thank you for reading!

 

Poll, Should St. Louis’ Municipal Elections Go Non-Partisan?

St. Louis likes to pretend like we have multiple active political parties.  We don’t.  This year the Green party has a Mayoral primary but that is it.  For decades now the real election has been the Democratic primary with the general election a month later simply being a formality — an expensive formality.

We have no good reason to continue to have partisan primary elections followed by a general.  None.  It costs taxpayers additional money and requires two trips to the polls when one would suffice.

In the 23rd Ward we have seven candidates in the Democratic primary.  Reading their answers to my questionnaire you can tell that not all are Democrats.  But to win an election in this city, it is said, you must run as a Democrat. When I ran four years ago I remember talking to an older man going in to vote.  “I’m voting for the Democrat, ” he said.  It was the primary and both candidates were Democrats. There was no Republican, Green or Libertarian ballot as an option.

Please vote in the poll in the upper right corner of the home page and share your comments below.

 

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