Future Mainstream Automotive Tech, Poll Results

The first hybrid sold in America? If you said the Toyota Prius you’d be be wrong. Seven months before the Prius went on sale in the US, Honda introduced the 2-seat 3-door 3-cylinder Insight hybrid in December 1999.

For perspective, in 1999 GM produced 457 of the second generation EV1s. In 2000 Toyota brought the first generation Prius to America, a compact 4-door sedan. Hybrids were a niche product.

The documentary Who Killed the Electric Car was shown at the Sundance Film Festival in January 2006. However, by 2011:

The price premium for a hybrid compared to a similar conventional car is getting whittled down, in some cases to almost nothing–making fuel efficiency and low emissions increasingly a no-compromise affair. New affordable hybrid sedans, and the wider selection of a hybrid system as an option in a mainstream vehicle, are expected to at least double hybrid market share in the next five years, from about 2.5 percent in 2011 to 15 percent or higher in the next 10 to 15 years. That means millions of new hybrids on the road and a growing number of choices for consumers. (Hybrid Cars Go Mainstream)

The 2015 Lincoln MKZ Hybrid has the starting same price as the conventional model, $35,190. Hybrids, though not the majority, are now mainstream. Auto manufacturers use hybrid models to meet increasingly tough CAFE standards. Plug-in hybrids & electrics haven’t reached this level —  yet.  Which brings us to the results from last week’s poll:

Q: Which of the following, if any, will be mainstream within 20 years (pick up to 4)

1. Electric vehicles 49 [34.51%]
2. Plug-in hybrid vehicles 36 [25.35%]
3. Self-driving vehicles 26 [18.31%]
4. Fuel cell vehicles 18 [12.68%]
5. None within 20 years 7 [4.93%]
6. Unsure/no opinion 6 [4.23%]

I find the answers a bit confusing, more people think electrics will become mainstream than plug-in hybrids. The plug-in hybrid is often the stepping stone between a hybrid and full electrics — both for manufacturers and consumers. In the last 15 years hybrid/electric tech has come a long way, reflected in sales:

Sales of all electrified cars totaled 408,516 vehicles between January and August, down just a tick from the 408,694 vehicles sold during the same period last year.

Of that total, the bigger percentage gain came in plug-in hybrids, which grew from 28,241 vehicles sold to 40,748. Battery-powered EVs — with no gas engine at all — also grew, from 29,917 vehicles sold to 40,349.

But traditional hybrid sales fell from 350,530 vehicles from January to August last year to 327,418 during the same period in 2014.

The market share for electrified vehicles also fell. So far this year, they account for 3.66% of all vehicles sold, down from 3.84% for the same period a year ago. (Electrified car sales stall as buyers back away from hybrids)

As sales increase pieces will decrease, cheaper batteries will drive more sales:

The Gigafactory’s purpose is to streamline production of battery packs and bring down their cost, and subsequently the cost of electric cars. Tesla CEO Elon Musk has said the plant will be vital to the success of the Model 3, the brand’s upcoming lower-priced EV sedan. The Tesla Model S and Model X SUV, due later this year, will also benefit from the Gigafactory eventually, as the plant is expected to cut battery pack costs by at least 30 percent. (Tesla Chooses Nevada as Site for Gigafactory)

Ok, so Tesla will sell a less expensive model. What about the mass market?

Toyota and Tesla have been working together to produce battery packs and motors for the electrified RAV4 EV, but with the program soon coming to a close, the automakers are revealing they’re not ready to go their separate ways. The Japanese automaker has been vocal about wanting to continue working with the electric car company, while Tesla CEO Elon Musk recently revealed he’d like to see the same thing. (Musk: Tesla, Toyota Could Join Forces Again in Next Few Years)

Hard to say where we’ll be with plug-in hybrids & electric vehicles 20 years from now, but I think both will be mainstream within 15 years. Self-driving cars and fuel cell vehicles? I’m still not convinced. Here too we’re seeing repaid adoption:

The age of the self-driving car may soon be upon us. General Motors CEO Mary Barra revealed that we’ll start seeing semi-autonomous technologies in certain Cadillac models in as little as two years. (GM Semi-Autonomous Tech to Debut on All-New 2017 Cadillac Model)

Also see Entire Toyota Lineup to Feature Pre-Collision Tech by 2017.

Fuel cell vehicles are electric cars that generate electricity on-board rather than through the grid, solar, etc. Of the four I think fuel cells have the least chance of becoming mainstream in 20 years.None of us knows for sure, we’ll just have to revisit this issue in the future.

— Steve Patterson

Poll: Thoughts On Flordell Hills Police, Pop 822, Starting Its Own Police Force On Oct 1st

Starting October 1st St. Louis County will have another police force:

Flordell Hills has decided to form its own police department even though the city only has 822 residents.
The city said the move has been in works for months. The department will feature six full time officers, and it will cost more than what the city paid to have County Club Hills patrol the municipality. The city will have one officer for every few square blocks. (KMOV)

There are different ways one might view this change, so I thought this would be a good poll topic this week. The exact poll question is “Starting Oct 1st the north county suburb of Flordell Hills, pop 822, will have its own police force again. Thoughts:” I’ve provided a few answers but you can also type in your own if you don’t like mine. The poll is in the right sidebar. Mobile users need to switch to the desktop layout.

— Steve Patterson

Poll: Which Vehicle Technology Will Become Mainstream Within Two Decades?

Toyota first began selling the Prius hybrid in Japan in December 1997 — nearly 20 years ago. This form of hybrid is now mainstream, cars from many manufacturers offer some form of hybrid. In all these an internal combustion engine (ICE) comes on the drive the wheels, as needed. Batteries are recharged primarily through regenerative braking. Millions of such hybrid vehicles have been sold worldwide.

What’s next?

Below are four technologies that might become mainstream in the next two decades, listed alphabetically:

• Electric vehicles (plugs into grid, no ICE)
• Fuel cell vehicles (uses oxygen & hydrogen to generate electricity used to power electric motors)
• Plug-in hybrid vehicles (plugs into grid, ICE charges batteries to extend range)
• Self-driving vehicles (the autonomous self-driving vehicle wouldn’t need input from a human)

For the poll this week I want to see which of the above, if any, will become mainstream within 20 years. The poll includes those four plus options for ‘none’ and ‘unsure’, all will be presented randomly. The poll is at the top of the right sidebar, you can select up to four answers.

— Steve Patterson

Weekly Poll: Two Questions About Michael Brown and Ferguson MO

More than a week ago a young man lost his life, shot by Ferguson police officer Darren Wilson:

His mother, Lesley McSpadden, said the shooting took place as her son was walking to his grandmother’s residence.

Piaget Crenshaw, 19, said she was waiting for a ride to work when she saw a police officer attempting to place Brown in the squad car.

She then said she saw the teen, hands in the air, attempt to flee. Several shots hit Brown as he ran, Crenshaw said. She complied with a request that she give photos of the scene to authorities. (stltoday)

In selecting this subject for the poll this week my hope is to gauge reader sentiment.

The first question this week is:

Which of the following do you think happened in Ferguson MO on Saturday Aug 9th?

• Michael Brown, an innocent unarmed teenager; was murdered by Ferguson PO Darren Wilson.
• Michael Brown, an unarmed teenager, forcefully stole cigars from a convenience store a half mile away; was killed by Ferguson PO Darren Wilson who used excessive force
• Michael Brown, an unarmed teenager, forcefully stole cigars from a convenience store a half mile away; was killed by Ferguson PO Darren Wilson who used appropriate force
• Unsure/No Opinion

Note that the above will be presented in random order  in the poll in the upper right sidebar on the desktop layout.

The second question is: Which two of the following officials has displayed the BEST leadership regarding Ferguson? (PICK 2) See poll for list, they’ll also be presented in a random order.

Please discuss in the comments below.

— Steve Patterson

Readers: Allowing A 7-9 Year Old Child To Play At A Local Park Is NOT Child Neglect

In the poll last week most readers agreed the two moms arrested the week before shouldn’t have been arrested, letting their kids play in the park wasn’t child neglect. To refresh your memory:

In South Carolina a mom was arrested after allowing her 9-year old daughter to play in the park unsupervised:

She spent 17 days in jail, temporarily lost custody of her girl, thought she lost her job, and still faces 10 years in prison if convicted of felony child neglect. (CBS News) 

A very similar case reported in Florida the next day when a mom allowed her 7-year old to play in a park:

Dominic was playing when Port St. Lucie Police pulled up. Police took him home and arrested his mom charging her with child neglect. (source)

Here are the poll results.

Q: Is allowing a 7-9 year old child to play at a local park ‘child neglect’?

No 120 [71.43%]
Maybe 35 [20.83%]
Yes 9 [5.36%]
Unsure/No Opinion 4 [2.38%]

Comments on the post raised valid questions, such the time frame between letting a kid play and neglect; apparently one mom had her kid play in the park while she was at work.  I don’t know that we can put at time frame applicable to every kids. I know I was away from home for hours at a time as a child. My concern is those who answered “Yes” and “Maybe” might be too over protective.  As kids get older they need the freedom to gain independence.

A Psychology Today post titled Parenting: Raise Independent Children, Are you raising responsible or contingent children? addresses the issue:

One of your most important goals as a parent is to raise children who become independent and self-reliant people. Certainly, in early development, your children count on you. As infants, they rely on you for nourishment, cleaning, and mobility. As your children grow, they become more independent in these basic areas of living, but still depend on you for love, protection, guidance, and support. As your children reach adolescence and move toward adulthood, they become less reliant on you and gain greater independence in all aspects of their lives. This process of separation prepares your children for the demands of adulthood. But this progression toward adulthood is not inevitable and is often stymied by well-intentioned, but misguided, parents.

Contingent Children

Contingent children are dependent on others for how they feel about themselves. Some parents want to foster this dependence. These parents act on their own needs for power and use control and coercion to ensure that they remain the dominant forces in their children’s lives. Contingent children can be recognized in the following ways:

Depend on others to provide them with incentive to achieve.
Depend on others for their happiness because they have no ownership of their lives and little responsibility for their own thoughts, emotions, and actions.
Reinforced with inappropriate rewards and no limits, and regardless of their behavior.
Poor decision makers because their parents hold the belief that they always know what is best and make decisions without soliciting their children’s wishes.

Independent Children

Independent children differ from contingent children in several essential ways. If your children are independent, you have provided them with the belief that they are competent and capable of taking care of themselves. You offered them the guidance to find activities that are meaningful and satisfying. You gave your children the freedom to experience life fully and learn its many important lessons. Independent children can be recognized in the following ways:

Intrinsically motivated because they are allowed to find their own reasons to achieve.
Were given the opportunity and guidance to explore achievement activities of their own choosing.
Parents use extrinsic rewards appropriately and sparingly.
Collaborative rather than a controlled relationship with their parents in which the children’s ideas and wishes are solicited and considered.
Good decision makers because they were allowed to consider various options and, with the support and guidance of their parents, make their own decisions.

The world is no worse than it was 20-30-40 years ago, we just have more news outlets with time to fill. Keep your kids safe, but please make sure they learn how to become independent.

— Steve Patterson