Poll: What Will St. Louis’ Population Be In The 2010 Census?

The 1940 Census showed a loss of population in the City of St. Louis for the first time in it’s history, a drop from the 1930 Census.  The 1947 Comprehensive Plan ignored this loss and predicted continued growth, albeit slower than in prior decades:

The City of St. Louis can anticipate a population of 900,000 persons by 1970, based on these assumptions:

1. That the population of the St. Louis Metropolitan District continues to maintain its present proportion to total urban population of the United States.
2. That an attractive environment for living will be developed throughout the city to counteract current decentralization trends.
3. That the city is, nevertheless, a maturing urban center that can never expect to attain the tremendous past growth of certain earlier periods.

Planner Harland Bartholomew clearly made the wrong assumptions but, as many know, the 1950 Census was showed a population increase — the peak.  Each subsequent Census since has shown a drop in population.  The biggest drop was in 1980 when the population dropped more than 27% from 1970.

Each year between the decennial Census an estimate of population is produced. In recent years St. Louis successfully challenged the estimated figures. The 2009 estimate showed a population of 356,587, a slight but important increase over the 2000 Census figure of 348,189.  The poll is located in the upper right of the blog, it will be there until the morning of Sunday January 16, 2011.  But here is the question and provided answers:

Q: The 2000 Census had St. Louis’ population at 348,189, the 2009 estimate at 356,587. Where will the 2010 count be?

• Less than 348,198
• Between 348,189 and 356,587
• More than 356,587
• who knows, will just have to wait for the results

As always, you can provide your own answer if you don’t like the ones provided. Results will be published on Wednesday 19, 2011.

– Steve Patterson

Poll: What Issues Would You Like The Board of Aldermen To Address In 2011?

There is still some time left in the current session of the Board of Aldermen ends, the last meeting before the Spring break is Thursday February 10, 2011.  A new session begins in April 2011.

My poll question this week asks: “What are three issues you’d like the St. Louis Board of Aldermen to address in 2011?”

The answers are numerous but you have have additional ideas, pick up to three.  The poll is in the upper right of the blog.

– Steve Patterson

Poll On Missouri’s Historic Tax Credit Program

The State of Missouri is facing a budget crunch so everything is on the table, including tax credits:

“Missouri has 61 tax credit programs that waived $521 million in state income taxes last year. Costs for tax credits have increased five-fold during the past dozen years while state revenues have risen much less.” (AP via Bloomberg)

One credit that may be scaled back is the historic tax credit:

“Gov. Jay Nixon’s tax credit commission recommended Tuesday lowering Missouri’s annual cap on historic tax credits from $140 million to $75 million a year.

The commission said the reduction, which would be permanent, should cover all historic renovation activity under the program. Nearly $100 million in historic tax credits were authorized in 2010, according to the commission’s report.”  (St. Louis Business Journal)

In 2010 “nearly $100 million in historic tax credits were authorized” so lowering the cap would reduced the number of projects getting renovated using the tax credit.  This is the subject of the poll this week.  I want to know how you, the readers, feel about the cap being lowered.  The poll is in the upper right corner of the blog.

– Steve Patterson

Readers Mixed On ‘Most Dangerous’ List

The results were mixed on the poll last week.

Q: St. Louis was recently named the ‘Most Dangerous City’ by CQ Press. Your thoughts:

1. The methodology may be flawed but there is some truth to it 51 [29.31%]
2. If they looked at metropolitan areas the St. Louis region wouldn’t be on the list at all. 50 [28.74%]
3. The study methodology is highly flawed so the results can’t be trusted. 27 [15.52%]
4. St. Louis is dangerous, but not the most dangerous. 27 [15.52%]
5. Other answer… 8 [4.6%]
6. Take that Camden NJ, we’re #1 this year! 7 [4.02%]
7. Agreed, St. Louis is the most dangerous. 3 [1.72%]
8. unsure/no opinion 1 [0.57%]

The other answers were:

1. The city is very dangerous
2. Horsecrap. So far.
3. Major cities like Chicago aren’t even considered for this “honor”
4. Dangerous enough to matter in the negative!
5. The city is extremely violent, however the city/county divide scews the results
6. No, St. Louis is not the most dangerous city.
7. Not the most dangerous, but dangerous enough and we need to fix it, now!
8. St. Louis is no more dangerous than any other large city.

I have no great conclusions based on the above other than 1) St. Louis can be dangerous 2) the results are flawed & 3) probably not the most dangerous. You see anything else in the numbers?

– Steve Patterson

Readers Do Not Support Exempting Casinos From Smoke-Free Laws

In the poll last week readers overwhelmingly support banning smoking in casinos.

Q: Should casinos be exempt from Smoke-Free laws?

1. No, smoke-free laws are in place to protect workers, including casino workers. 82 [62.12%]
2. All 21+ businesses should be exempt (casinos, nightclubs, etc) 23 [17.42%]
3. All smoking bans should be repealed, exempt everyplace! 12 [9.09%]
4. Yes, casinos should be exempt because of their economic impact, but not bars, etc. 9 [6.82%]
5. Other answer… 4 [3.03%]
6. Unsure/no opinion 2 [1.52%]

The four “other” answers were:

1. NO! All public places should be smoke free.
2. Air filtration systems to a certain safe air code.
3. No, it’s not about workers, it’s about everybody.
4. Casinos should be banned.

This as Illinois is considering amending it’s smoke-free law to permit smoking in casinos.

Last week a community considering a smoke-free law, including casinos, was granted the final casino license in Missouri:

“The Missouri Gaming Commission awarded on Wednesday the state’s 13th and only available gaming license to St. Louis-based Isle of Capri Casinos, which wants to build a $125 million casino in Cape Girardeau.” (St. Louis Business Journal)

Last week I heard a radio commercial for smoke-free gambling at Harrah’s St. Louis:

“Remember that so-called “non-smoking” section tucked away in the back corner of the casino filled with the most unpopular games? Well, we’re shaking things up! In addition to our smoke friendly casino, we’ve also created the largest smoke-free casino featuring over 600 of your favorite games and tables!” (Harrah’s)

I don’t like casinos either way but the workers have no choice if they want to remain employed.

– Steve Patterson