Highway 40 Closure, Much Ado About Nothin’

Economic life was going to come to a complete standstill in the St. Louis region if traffic was not allowed to continue through the reconstruction of highway 40.  That was the prediction of Frontenac Republican Scott Muschany and others at a meeting held on December 17, 2007 that was “organized” by retired traffic engineer Joe Passanise:

httpv://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wewf3pJEAU4

…Make no mistake about it, beginning January 3rd MoDOT is going to unleash the worst economic damage that this community could ever suffer, one of the worst public health crisis… – Scott Muschany 12/17/07

Wow, “worst economic damage that this community could ever suffer.”   The closure came and with a few exceptions it has been a non-event.  People are adjusting their schedules, routes and modes.

Our region’s adaption to the closed interstate highway proves one thing — the highway is not necessary!  Muschany and his road building Republican buddies would probably like to have the project take much longer and cost hundreds of millions more.  The fact we are spending over $500 million for something the region doesn’t need is bad enough.

As I and others have said before, Highway 40 should not be rebuilt as the  “new I-64” but should be a proper urban boulevard with through lanes in the middle and more localized lanes on the outer edges.  These outside lines, separated by a line of trees from the center lanes, would have on-street parking and buildings fronting them.

Mass transit might take the form of a commuter rail line down the center but it also might take the form of more localized service to the local stores, or a combination of both.  Areas North and South of the corridor would be connected through a grid of streets making it easier to get across this long-standing divide.

Instead the traffic folks envision more traffic and more pavement to handle the volume.  Alternates are not considered as we worship the so-called freedom of the interstates.  True enough, getting to Chicago, Tulsa, Kansas City or many other places by car on county roads would be time consuming so I do see value in the highways to connect regions — it is what they do within regions that I have a problem with.

The citizens of the St. Louis region will adapt as they have been to the changes.  There will most certainly be accidents that cause delays and unfortunately lives will be lost.  Of course, lives are lost daily on crashes on our interstates.  And in a couple of years, once the highway is completely rebuilt, most people will drop their car pool or use of mass transit and return to their single occupancy vehicles.  Due to the improvements of the new highway others will join them and in short order we will be back to slow downs and at capacity travel on the new I-64.  When this happens, in 5 or 10 years, the engineers will be back at the drawing board working on the next version. The alternative is that fuel becomes so costly we a drop in use and the highway will seem overbuilt for demand.

One thing is certain, those that sought to keep the highway open didn’t have a clue.  Hopefully the folks in Frontenac will elect themselves a new state rep this coming November.

Crosswalk Leads Directly Into Curb & Light Standard, Missing Ramps

Getting around the city is a challenge for those using mobility devices (wheelchairs, mobility scooters), pushing strollers or pulling luggage. Sure, everywhere you look you do see ramps. So what is the problem, you ask?

Well, ramp placement plays a role in their ultimate usability and sadly placement has been given little thought throughout the city. Of course, it is worse out in the suburbs where sidewalks are a luxury.

Above is looking East across 18th Street at the signalized entry to Union Station (behind me) and across to another parking lot — I like how they managed to center the crosswalk lines with the curb on the other side — perfectly centered between two ramps! Pedestrians headed West from the new multi-modal center (Greyhound & Amtrak services) are directed up a new ramp which takes them out to the above intersection. Those heading South along 18th (toward Ameren/Lafayette Sq) must cross this crosswalk as the viaduct only has sidewalks on the West edge. Those coming and going from Union Station also cross this intersection.

Interesting, the ramp for the corner where I am standing aligns perfectly with the center of the painted stripes yet on the opposite side it runs into a curb and signal post. Brilliant!

When I took the above image a couple of weeks ago the signals here and at the new ramp just a few hundred feet to the South had been placed on yellow flash for 18th and red flash if you were leaving on of the parking lots. For pedestrians, this means no pedestrian signal to indicate when it is OK to attempt to cross the street.

And, as you might expect, the ramps on the other side are a mess of wrong slopes and cross angles. Controlling a wheelchair to keep from having the right ramp spill you out in the street would be a challenge. This situation should not be acceptable given that pedestrians from this new facility are headed this direction.

UPDATE 1/9/08 @ 9am – The new multi-modal center is expected to open in late April.

Accidents in Construction Zones Can Be Worse Than Alternate Routes

As a section of highway 40 (aka I-64) is completely shut down in St. Louis I am in Oklahoma City visiting with family and here a section of highway, known as the Broadway Extension (technically I-235 but nobody calls it that), heading north from downtown to the affluent suburb of Edmond is under reconstruction.  A good analogy to Edmond would be Chesterfield, although they’ve not built any shopping centers in an area that was under water less than a decade ago.  Back to the highway, a section that only has two lanes in each direction is getting a third (maybe 4th) lane as well as getting an awkward curve taken out and an improved interchange (@ NW 36th, see map).

Like so many projects in St. Louis this one in OKC is taking a while as they are leaving the existing lanes open where possible, closing only ‘as needed.’  The shoulders are gone as they keep the lanes open but squeeze them onto less pavement to allow for the construction work to take place.

Yesterday morning my brother and I are heading toward downtown and traffic comes to a stop long before this construction zone.  Both lanes are solid cars and a fire truck is coming up the shoulder at this part.  Again, as you get toward the construction zone the shoulder goes away.   So then we are all trying to squeeze into the right lane so the fire truck can get by on the left lane.

After about 10 minutes or so we finally get to the issue — a Chevy Suburban SUV had rolled over in the narrow construction zone.  They had it loaded on a flatbed at a crew were in one of the only two lanes cleaning up glass.   All traffic was having to condense from two narrow lanes to a single lane as motorists took their time looking at the wrecked vehicle.  Just a hundred feet or so later the roadway opened up and we were back up to highway speeds on the 3 lanes that were headed south.

So what does all this mean?  Well, those in St. Louis that are still fighting to now re-open highway 40 before the bridges are taken down talk about safety as an issue.  Yet, the safety of having many still doing their commute through the construction zone doesn’t seem to register.  Just as accidents will happen on alternate routes, they would most certainly happen in the construction zone.  The workers on the highway, with it closed, are certainly much safer than keeping a lane or two open.

While I continue to question the need for such an extensive and costly rebuilding of highway 40, I certainly support the closing of that part being rebuilt.   Accidents and delays can become so much worse in a construction zone as opposed to an alternate route.

Gas Price Predictions, My Timing Was Off A Couple of Years

In December 2005, following Katrina & Rita, I was so sure that gas prices would continue to elevate past the three dollar point by the end of 2006. Boy was I wrong! To make matters worse, in June 2006 I was smugly confident that gas would be three-fifty by the end of 2006. In June of 2006 I wrote the following:

Back on December 30th [2005] I predicted that by the end of 2006 “a gallon of regular gas will exceed $3.00, not due to a natural disaster or terrorism.” I think that prediction might turn out to be a major understatement. At the time regular gas in St. Louis was around $2.20/gallon.

Yesterday when I left my house for dinner regular at the two stations near me was $2.69/gallon. Just a couple hours later the price was $2.88/gallon (shameful I didn’t have my camera with me). Today I noticed the price has settled to $2.84/gallon. This is all for regular. Premium fuel, like my former Audi required, is now over $3.00/gallon. Places in metro East are seeing regular in the $2.94 – $2.99/gallon range.

So today I’m revising my estimate, I think we’ll see regular gas at $3.50/gallon before New Year’s Day 2007. And I don’t mean some spike brought on by a hurricane or such. Just normal everyday pricing.

In reality I was not wrong, just off on my timing a couple of years, give or take a few months. Looking closer at the per barrel price of crude oil and I can see where I made my mistake in timing.

In September 2005 oil was pushing up toward $60/barrel following Katrina+Rita and refineries were knocked out along the gulf coast. The market was in place for a short term gas spike. By December, when I made my premature prediction, the price of a gallon of oil had dropped to just pocket change below $50/barrel. I wasn’t totally off, we had started 2005 in the low 30s per barrel so ending up pushing $50/barrel was a big increase.

This month oil prices have been in the high 80s to mid 90s, a considerable distance from $50/barrel.

Yesterday’s LA Times reported (free registration required) that analysts are projecting a US average around $3.50/gallon in the first half of 2008, as demand increases:

“If anyone expects gas to be less than a new record, they are not thinking,” said Fadel Gheit, senior energy analyst for Oppenheimer & Co. “There is no question it will be much higher than last year.”

Americans will start 2008 paying about 65 cents more a gallon than they did in January 2007, according to the forecasts, and by April could see self-serve regular selling for $3.50 to $3.75 a gallon.

In California — where gas this year has fetched as much as 50 cents more than the national average — $4 a gallon “will no longer be considered a rogue number,” said Tom Kloza, chief oil analyst for the Oil Price Information Service. “It will list for that much in a lot of places.”

The Energy Department’s weekly survey of service stations Monday found the average pump price was $2.980 nationally and $3.261 in California, a couple of pennies lower than a week earlier — but much higher than the same period last year, when the number was $2.341 across the U.S. and $2.607 across the state.

Pump prices usually fall between Labor Day and the end of the year, in recent years dropping about 17% in California.  This year they did the reverse, gaining 17%.  

These will not be peaks and then drop back below $3/gallon. Demand continues to increase, both in the US and from other countries such as China and India.  World populations are increasing, as are vehicle registrations and total miles driven.  Not a formula for lowering prices.

All you folks with your V-8 SUVs and your 40-mile one-way commutes, get ready to pay lots more.  Sadly, the working poor who need a car to get to their jobs will also be paying more as well.  While some can handle the increase, others will not be able to do so.  And while many can handle short-term increases the long-term impact will be felt as consumers slow down their consuming to afford the gas for the Explorer.
Of course, this is an election year so that adds a whole new layer to the mix.  Will the Republicans in Washington find a way to artificially lower/stabilize prices between now and the November 2008 election?  Many factors such as the fallout from the subprime mess will really screw up the economic situation in 2008.
What will be interesting is how rising gas prices, combined with next weeks shutdown of highway 40, will impact the voters in St. Louis County with respect to a sales tax increase in August to help support ongoing operations at Metro as well as fund some future expansion.  Will the voters be see the folly of being so dependent upon cars that they decide to fund better transit or will they conclude they are already paying more money for gas and therefore can’t afford any more taxes?

Back to the LA Times:

Motorists found the New Year predictions infuriating.

“It’s absurd, ridiculous,” said Eric Mills, 40, a special-event coordinator for the entertainment industry, as he filled up his 1990 Honda Prelude with $3.399-a-gallon gasoline at a downtown Los Angeles Shell station.

“Every year I hear about fuel cells and other promising alternative fuel possibilities — and every year I’m still putting gasoline in my car.”

For all of you just waiting for that new fuel cell Taurus or Caprice, don’t hold your breath.  While these alternatives might pan out in a decade or so they are not going to help you this year.   Interestingly, motorists just keep motoring as if one day they will just instantly trade the gasoline powered car for some  fuel cell car and things will continue as before.  How simplistic.

Today’s Post-Dispatch has a story on people selling storage condos in St. Charles County.  For $40,000 you can get a storage unit for your extra car, boat or RV.  I guess when your 3-car garage is full that is what you do, buy a storage unit.  For these folks, the new reality that we are seeing unfold will come as a big shock.  When the market crashed in 1929 it was not the poor man jumping out of office windows.  Of course, today, the business man in Earth City doesn’t have operable windows and is likely at most on the 2nd floor.

So my predictions for 2008?  Nothing specific, I learned my lesson on that.  Gas prices will continue their upward trend, malls will continue to be yesterday’s news as people seek open air street-like shopping districts or actual shopping districts.  Projects in far St. Charles County that people think are temporarily on hold will be permanently on hold.  Developers and home builders will realize that 2008 is different than 1958 — the demographics are different, cheap gas is gone and people are seeking quality public space.  It will look rough while we are in it but in 2009 and beyond we will be thankful.

Restaurant Cuts Dinner Hours Due to Highway 40 Closure

The Southside Journal is reporting that Giuseppe’s Ristorante at Grand & Meremac is axing it’s dinner hours starting next week, in anticipation of a drop in business from it’s largely West County clientele.

When the highway reopens, Giuseppe’s could start its evening hours again.”Sixty percent of our customers live in West County,” said Forrest Miller, who owns the restaurant with Eric Stockmann and Mark Manfrede. “You can’t expect people to go through that aggravation.”

While I think that many people on all sides of the construction zone will spend more time nearer their homes, I still think people will venture out for an evening meal to a well-known place they enjoy. The Fox and Symphony will continue. Life will continue, unless places begin to shutter their doors beforehand.

“When they closed the highway last summer, each time they closed it our weekend business was in the tank,” said Miller, who also owns the popular South County banquet hall Royale Orleans at 2801 Telegraph Road with his wife Donna. “We noticed our business was off like 60 percent every weekend.”

“This is a big restaurant,” Miller said. “If you have a bad day, you go in the hole.”

I appreciate that restaurants cannot have food prepared only to send it home with the staff because their business was down. Still, the temporary shut downs that we had were very temporary — a solitary weekend here and there. People were like, “let’s just go some place close tonight.” Well, that is going to wear off very soon.

In January our roads will be a mess. However, I think folks will get into a routine and before long it will seem rather normal. Someone coming for an 8pm Saturday dinner reservation will still manage. They might do well to consider a weekend only evening schedule, say Thursday-Sunday, starting in February. Still, the Feasting Fox across the intersection might pick up some business from people that arrive for dinner only to find the establishment closed.
Forrest Miller spoke at the stop highway 40 closure meeting last week held by Joe Passanise.