$1 Billion Mississippi River Bridge – The Numbers Just Don’t Add Up

Tuesday evening last week engineers revealed a new proposal for the Mississippi River Bridge. As expected, it is less costly and far less intrusive into the city compared to the old bridge. At first glance it looks fine. But when you dig below the surface the new design falls short of acceptable in an urban environment. Dig some more and the conclusion we need the bridge is questionable at best.

If you haven’t seen the previous design take a look at a prior post. Before I get into the question of having the bridge at all, let’s look at the revised design.

Again, the new design is far better than the catastrophic design previously proposed. Keep in mind the original concept many years ago was to make a highway loop around the West edge of downtown and connect with I-64/Hwy 40 just to the West of Union Station. Later this was scaled back as the 22nd Street Parkway but lofts and restaurants in the path of the parkway and lack of funds have killed the concept. But the engineers for the new bridge had continued to act as though the parkway was going to happen. In prior bridge concepts they had a massive hole and roadway stretching across the North edge of downtown that would dump cars onto Washington Avenue. Lack of money, not a richness of good sense, prompted the engineers to reconsider the Missouri interchange for the bridge.

Now, instead of dumping cars onto Washington Avenue they are being dumped onto Cass Avenue. The shortened on/off ramps are still being called “parkway” by the engineers simply because of all the open grass land around the them. Open grass land that comes from razing buildings and erasing the street grid. Long high-speed on/off ramps in an area where buildings and streets used to exist but now has some green grass is not a parkway, it is a mistake.

With nearly every downtown building being renovated as lofts and renewed interest in Old North St. Louis through their new in-fill houses we have a very unique opportunity to mend the city. Between downtown and Old North much has been lost and changed. But the street grid is mostly intact as are many of the buildings that make up a starting point for filling in the gaps between these two points. If done successfully someone could enjoy a nice walk from downtown to Crown Candy Kitchen. Filling in these blocks with new loft-like buildings, rowhouses and other building types we could create an even stronger residential base to support the growing number of downtown businesses. Strengthening our neighborhoods and seamlessly connecting them together should be a high priority for revitalizing the city. The new bridge design will make such connections visually challenging and literally difficult by foot, bicycle and even by car if you don’t know which streets are closed.

The revised design calls for the ramps to dump onto Cass Avenue between 10th and 11th Streets. Engineers have four lanes of traffic exiting the bridge at Cass. Two lanes turn left and two right. The assumption is many of the drivers that turn left will make an immediate right to take 10th Street into the central business district (CBD). 10th Street is currently a one-way street heading south, serving as a speedy exit from the current I-70. During the morning rush the street is crowded with folks just passing through. After 9am the street is desolate unless we have some sort of sporting event going on. The street is not there to serve the residents and to build upon but simply a pass through. Ninth Street is the opposite. No, it is not a lively street 24/7 but simply a Northbound version of 10th, a pass through on the way to somewhere else.

Between 9th and 10th is some public housing. At the very end at Cass the tired old looking housing has been getting a nice makeover. The new look is a bit too traditional for my taste but they are far more welcoming. The proportion and material selection is quite nice. Looks like a respectable home. But who will want to make their home in the units facing Cass? They’ll have seven traffic lanes just outside their door along with a rush to traffic Southbound on 10th and Northbound on 9th.

Don’t even think about on-street parking as the engineers will object to blocking flow. Seven lanes of traffic and no on-street parking in front of your door is anti-neighborhood. It is unfriendly to residents and pedestrians and inappropriate.

All along Cass Avenue between Broadway and 13th street the story is the same — lots of traffic lanes and nothing that says this is a neighborhood worth spending time in rather than simply passing through. Is this the message we want to send to people? Do we really want to create a high volume corridor that prevents us from melding the Old North St. Louis neighborhood into the loft district?

The mayor says the bridge is good for downtown. What he means is we need to keep suburbanites coming downtown to work and play because we have no real plan to increase our own population and be more self sustaining. Keeping commuters happy will keep jobs in St. Louis. This is a maintain the status quo project. So rather than build our city on strong neighborhoods and mass transit we are going to sell out our neighborhoods and continue to subsidize private auto ownership.

I have a different vision for our city. One where we reconnect our fractured street grid back together permitting our citizens to walk, bike, scooter or drive from block to block. Weave mass transit through the grid and pretty soon you’ve got a real city of connected neighborhoods — like St. Louis used to be.

Which brings me to my next point.

We don’t need this bridge.

The numbers just don’t add up.

One of the questions I asked everyone in sight on Tuesday was specifics on where the projected traffic was coming from and where it was going. Nobody seemed able or willing to give me an answer. Finally I found one person to agree to email me more detail — the two charts shown below left. To my knowledge these numbers have not been previously shown to the general public.

The first chart indicates “Average Daily Traffic” or ADT Westbound traffic from Illinois into Missouri, presumably mostly morning traffic, while the second is ADT Eastbound traffic heading from Missouri to Illinois.

Westbound into Missouri show a total ADT count of 49,108 vehicles on the new bridge with 44% (21,623) coming from an I-64 connector and the remaining 56% (27,275) coming from a relocated I-70. Once the Westbound traffic is on the bridge it is estimated that 43% (21,277) will use the “parkway” to Cass and then into downtown. Thirty-three percent (33%, 16,289) will head south to I-44. Another 13% (6,197) will exit at a collector street to get to the North Broadway warehouse area and the remaining 11% (5,326) will head West on I-70.

The number heading Westbound on I-70 in the direction of the airport and St. Charles County looks low to me. I have no proof but my suspicion is we have far more people heading to low-paying service sector jobs in St. Charles County.

The Eastbound numbers into Illinois look similar to the Westbound numbers. The ADT total is estimated at 49,253 with 54% (26,361) heading East on I-70 with 46% (22,890) taking I-64. This traffic is coming from the “parkway” (51%, 25,310); I-44 (26%, 12,782) and I-70 (23%, 11,146).

Presumably traffic from the warehouse area along North Broadway will use I-70 and the “parkway” to cross the bridge Eastbound to Illinois. The numbers to and from I-44 are quite different — perhaps Eastbound traffic from I-44 will use the PSB rather than the new bridge?

Keep in mind that when first proposed, many years ago, the bridge was going to connect to a long parkway that would loop around the Western edge of downtown and connect with I-64/Hwy 40.

So what will the new bridge do for the big picture of all Mississippi River crossings?

---

The total volume of traffic is going to increase. Big surprise right? Later I’ll look at population numbers more closely and how those numbers relate to these. If we don’t build the new bridge the engineers predict the Poplar Street Bridge (PSB) will increase to 148,600 total crossings from 135,900 (+12,700). The balance of the 84,200 increase, 71,500, will go to the other bridges crossing the Mississippi. If we do build the new bridge the PSB will still carry a hefty 113,000 vehicles, a drop of 22,900 per day. The other bridges will see a slight drop as well. Here is the interesting part.

From the look of things by 2030 we have just barely finished all the various phases of the bridge and this and the other bridges will be at or near full capacity. Nobody ever likes to talk about this but it is a common occurrence — use increases to meet capacity. So 2030 arrives and we’ve just spent nearly $2 billion on the bridge and future phases

---

Future congestion is the main argument behind the new bridge. The Chicken Little’s of our region are saying if we don’t act now the amount of congestion crossing the river, in particular the Poplar Street Bridge (aka PSB @ I-64/I-70), is going to cause major problems:

The economic future of the urban core on both sides of the river depends on the efficient movement of goods and services, and the ability of people to simply get to work. Transportation paralysis will force businesses, jobs and new growth out of the urban core. An improved highway system at the heart of the Bi-state will help to revitalize downtown St. Louis, the north riverfront and the Metro East area, notably East St. Louis and the National Stockyards redevelopment area. By the year 2020, the 90-minute period of rush-hour congestion will double to three hours. Average delays will increase from 10 to 55 minutes.

The charts, at right, are from the East-West Gateway’s “Legacy 2030” transportation plan. Currently the St. Louis region ranks below average for delays measured in different ways. Despite what you might think, many regions have it much worse than St. Louis. Of course, this is not an argument for saying we should ignore future congestion. The real problem is determining what our transportation needs will be 25 years in the future.

---

One of the first steps is to look at expected changes in population. The estimates don’t look good for the City of St. Louis with population continuing to decrease over the next 20 years, albeit at a slow pace, with it increasing again to about the current level in 2030. St. Louis County shows a slight rise in population over the next five years but then a continued decline. The remaining jurisdictions in the region all show increases in population.

The two Illinois counties immediately across the river from St. Louis, Madison and St. Clair, will have an increase of just under 60,000 residents. Remember, St. Louis City population will only increase by about 1,000 people from today. St. Louis County population will drop nearly 14,000. The net difference is roughly 47,000 more people will live in the center of the region consisting of counties of Madison IL, St. Clair IL , St. Louis MO and the City of St. Louis.

---

But look at the numbers a different way. Everyone loves to talk about the city’s 1950’s peak population of nearly 900,000 and how we’ve fallen from grace. The chart above projects an increase in regional population between 2000-2030 of 287,565. That is a hefty number. Especially when we look at the change in regional population from the last 30 years. From 1970-2000 the region added only 101,528 to our ranks — 93,496 of which was in the decade from 1990 to 2000.

Will we actually continue to add 100,000 people to our region every 10 years? Maybe so. I’m sure they used some complicated computer software to model trends with ages, birth rates and such. But as history has shown, periods of little to no growth can exist. Keep in mind these numbers look less significant as percentages because as the total rises another 100,000 people becomes a lower percentage. It is always wise to look at raw numbers in addition to percentage to make sure one isn’t misrepresentative.

But for now let’s assume population numbers do rise at these unprecedented levels. Our regional governments are assuming we will continue the auto centric suburban experiment of the last 50+ years. It is funny how organizations predict certain outcomes such as suburban sprawl and then advocate policies that pretty much guarantee their predictions comes true. By spending a billion of our dollars on a new bridge we will ensure sprawl continues unchecked in the Illinois countryside.

I don’t want to limit Illinois but I’m just not willing to sacrifice a city neighborhood to do so. As a region I think we can have our cake and eat it to. Illinois can have compact development along the existing MetroLink line and the city can revitalize our neighborhoods through the future Northside & Southside MetroLink lines. It is a win-win situation.

The real problem is 25 years from now our population in the city is expected to be where we are now. Planning and spending for the region is based on this assumption. I can’t get past that. The mayor’s office is quick to jump on the Census Bureau when they mess up our population count today but somehow the agency that hands out federal funds say the population of the City of St. Louis is going to remain stagnant after spending a billion dollars on a new bridge and they are silent. Where is the outrage?

The traffic count across the Mississippi River is expected to be only 1,000 less if we don’t build the bridge. Granted, the other bridges will be at or above capacity. But fears of no work force i the city just isn’t true. Returning to the question of population. The two Illinois counties across the river are projected to increase by nearly 60,000 over the next 25 years. All three Illinois counties will have an increase of 67,600. Somehow this population increase will translate into 85,200 bridge crossings. Dividing that number in two, that is 42,600 additional crossings from Illinois. Based on current numbers less than 35% of residents of the three Illinois counties make their way across the river. But we are supposed to believe that 63% of the increase in population will make their way across the river? Of course, we have Missouri residents that commute to Illinois but remember that the planners expect a population drop in St. Louis County and for the city to be at the current level after dipping. The Legacy 2030 plan, where these charts are from, says employment will increase where population increases. But expecting more Illinois residents to be coming to Missouri is counter to the idea that they will increase their employment base along with their population.

Making the bridge a toll road is another topic being debated. Many say it is double taxation but why not have people that use the transportation system pay for part of it through a use tax. For example, those that take the bus or MetroLink are expected to pay a fee. If the bridge is free why not make MetroLink free? At the bridge meeting the planners estimated use of the new bridge would drop from ADT of 98,400 to 66,000. Some of the difference would likely be due to some taking other bridges. But it would fair to say that some may chose to carpool or take MetroLink to offset the cost of the toll. Reducing the number of vehicles, through a toll, would be a good thing.

Another justification for the new bridge is trucking. To fuel this growth in the region, so goes the argument, we need to have more trucking capacity. Pop quiz: what business is the mayor’s family in? Yes, trucking. If you believe oil will always be plentiful then you can continue to think that goods will still be shipped across country on tractor trailers. Realities of peak oil says the trucking industry will be affected by rising fuel prices long before construction would even begin on the bridge.

The new bridge continues the decades long pattern of sprawl and destroying our urban core. I’m not content accepting our region will grow only in the suburbs and that we must continue rebuilding the core to accommodate their cars. We should instead have a serious conversation about how we break the sprawl habit and strengthen the greater St. Louis area in a manner that will be sustainable long after the year 2030.

We should not build this bridge.

– Steve