Geologist: World Wide Oil Peak Occurred on December 16, 2005
Via Green Car Congress:
Ken Deffeyes, Princeton geology professor emeritus, former Shell geologist and author of two books on peak oil, has calculated that the world passed the peak of oil production (production of half of available oil) on 16 December, 2005.
Two years ago, Deffeyes, who had worked early in his career with M. King Hubbert at Shell, had forecast crossing the peak threshold on Thanksgiving Day, November 24, 2005. Deffeyes revised his calculations based on 2005 data.
In 1956, Hubbert calculated—and then publicly predicted—that US oil production would peak in the early 1970s. Although Hubbert was widely criticized by some oil experts and economists, in 1971 US oil production did indeed peak and has since been in decline.
All the detail can be found here.
What does this mean for St. Louis? The age of cheap motoring is over. Done. Finished. In the next 20 years we will see energy prices skyrocket.
Now is the time to wean ourselves away from an auto-centric environment to one where the car has its place alongside walking, biking, scootering, and quality mass transit (read: streetcars). The cities that prepare for this inevitability today will be the ones that do well in twenty years.
– Steve
…yeah, so let’s redo highway 40 and build a new bridge before gas prices go up too high…
idiots.
We’ve been running out of oil for years. It boils down to how much do you want to spend? It’s getting harder to get to the oil, but it’s still there. The easy-to-get-to stuff may be gone, but we’re a long ways away from running out. Plus with the current research into alternative fuels, the menu of options will continue to expand in the future. For better or worse, the single-occupant-vehicle is and will continue to be the preferred means of transport for the vast majority of Americans. People continue to vote yes with their pocketbooks every day, and in large and growing numbers!
That said, I still support pushing for alternatives. The challenges we face here include non-bike friendly roads, weather that favors air conditioners and heaters (unlike places like southern California) and a byzantine governmental structure that favors single-family homes on ¼-acre lots, suburban office parks and strip shopping centers (even in the city), and a distinct lack of vision (or support) for higher-density, regional planning.
Metro (both bus and rail) continues to struggle with inadequate funding and a lack of focus on truly meeting regional needs (being ham-strung by artificial barriers [non-participation by Jeffereson and St. Charles County] and having to provide services that aren’t really needed into areas that generate needed sales tax revenues).
One answer would be a regional form of government, much like the ones implemented by Indianapolis, Louisville and Lexington. Another could be a larger role for Metro, much like how transit is playing a greater role in addressing the growth issues around greater Atlanta and Denver. The current system of many, many small suburban cities, combined with tightly-held wards in the city, is a recipe for maintaining the status quo, not envisioning (much less building) a much more urban and realistic future. The likelihood of this happening? Slim and none, and Slim left town a long time ago . . .
Still, it boils down to “How do you eat an elephant?” . . . One bite at a time . . .
Well I am gonna say something important to remember: the world has faced peak enegery production problems before and will do so again and it won’t make a dern bit of difference.
Sure, it might mean people drive less, or that the current design for a car is abandoned. But people should not confuse peak oil with any coming problems. See the truth is that if people desire/ demand walkable bikeable city’s, then thats what the market wil respond with to address peak oil.
yet, I will argue that the car is so liberating that people will instead simply seek out another fuel source for the auto. Remember, whale oil once was the primary fuel in the world for lamps. You know what? People demanded light over darkness and other energy soultions were created. The market will provide.
“The age of cheap motoring is over.”
Well, I consider it a cheap proposition to pay 2 bucks to travel 25 or so miles. The ability to travel such a distance at my own accord and will is worth at least three times as much to me and probably to many, many others. Perhaps such a price is worth it to most Americans.
As the previous comment alluded to, I would not underestimate the ability of the market (read: car manufacturers) to keep “cheap” motoring around for quite some time.
I just paid $1.09/lb. for bananas yesterday. Fuel prices affect EVERYTHING — not just “The ability to travel such a distance at my own accord.” Our entire economy is based on moving things (not just people) with cheap energy. We will need to find new (read: old) systems for the localized supply of goods. Those grapes from Peru in February just may not be as available or affordable this time next year.
Dustin, your comment is totally off the topic of Mr. Patterson’s post and the comments that followed. The post and subsequent comments focused on the the “auto-centric” nature of this region.
Your point, that fuel prices affect everything, is obvious and I wonder why you even mentioned it. Better wean yourself off of your bananas, Dustin. The locally produced ones will be much more expensive than $1.09/lbs (if they can be produced in Missouri at all).
By the way, to further indulge your inane comment, isn’t it amazing that those bananas only cost you $1.09 a pound when you consider their production and transport?
[REPLY – Actually Craig, Dustin’s comment is very appropriate to the topic. Part of our auto-centric lifestyle is not just that we can drive 10 miles to go to dinner but that cheap fuel is a key part of our society. It may be worth it to you to pay $5/gallon for gas but when everyone is doing so it has to come out in the wash at some point. This will mean higher retail goods as long distance transportation becomes outragiously expensive.
The alternative fuels and more efficient vehicles and things simply don’t happen overnight. Niether do market responses to the need for walkable communities and efficient mass transit. – SLP]
I don’t think many things would become “outrageously expensive” even if gas hit $5.00/gallon. As I pointed out, it’s pretty amazing that you can get a South American fruit here in the midwest in the middle of winter for even a buck a pound. Would $3.00 a pound bananas be expensive? Fuel prices would have to increase quite a bit for bananas to cost that much. But that’s exactly what out of season asparagus costs.
The mass producers and retailers of the world have created such cost-efficiency that basic products come to us extremely cheap. Even increased fuel prices will not move the prices enough to make these basic products “outrageously expensive.”
Not that we haven’t reached peak oil, because it is quite possible we have or maybe haven’t, but how do you put an actual date on something like that? Does he have the minute and second also?
Gas is $1.96 as I type this, so it doesn’t seem to be effecting price yet. In fact, prices are falling. I don’t think peak oil is going to matter much for a few more years. Hopefully more people will start paying attention in that time.
Yeah. Gas prices going up will be good for this country’s culture… unless we end up fighting another series of wars to keep the oil flowing…
Anyway, even if everyone keeps driving all they want by buying hybrids and electric cars and whatnot… at least the streets will be quieter and the air cleaner. I can’t wait, seriously, for gas to hit $4 a gallon. I eagerly await that fine day….Just think about how much your smaller, cheaper to heat, close to services home in the city will be worth in 10 years!