Predictions for 2006, How Did I Do
A year ago I made a few predictions, some were on target, some where off and a couple were way off.
Gas Prices:
A gallon of regular gas will exceed $3.00, not due to a natural disaster or terrorism. Republicans and Democrats will argue over the best way to maintain our wasteful habits. Locally our sprawl and mass transit shortcomings will damage the local economy but the same will be true for most of the U.S.
Boy, I really blew this one! I even went so far to revise this in June to $3.49/gallon. All the signs were there but I did not factor in the ability of those in Washington to open up the market in time for the election. It will happen, perhaps in 2007? World demand is increasing and supply is leveling-off. .
Major Projects:
The public will balk at the final design & costs for the riverfront plan, stalling the project. Areas we may not expect like the Gateway Mall, St. Louis Centre, 22nd Street Interchange Alterations and the former Pruitt-Igoe site will begin having serious attention. Easy guess but I do think the Ballpark Village and Bottle District will move forward in some form. I predict I’ll have a review of the proposed Bottle District in a January issue of the West End Word…
Well, the public didn’t really balk at the riverfront plan but there were not huge calls to focus attention & money there. St. Louis Centre has received considerable attention, along with the financial backing of the city. The Gateway Mall has received attention from various groups in the community, a national competition is in the works. The 22nd Interchange, Pruitt-Igoe and Bottle District haven’t really progressed while the Ballpark Village is moving along as expected.
Politics:
The measure to make it harder to recall aldermen will fail by a wide margin, two more aldermen will be recalled. The remaining Aldermen will continue with the status quo known as “aldermanic courtesy†rather than recognize the city would be better served by legislators that view the city as a whole rather than 28 odd-shaped fiefdoms. Candidates file to challenge more than half the incumbent aldermen in the even numbered wards as the filing period opens in late 2006.
Ald. Florida’s charter amendment to make it harder to recall aldermen received 51% of the vote, shy of the 60% required to pass. As we saw, a couple of recall attempts were started against Bosley, Florida and Roddy but none managed to succeed. At this point five of 14 aldermanic seats are contested, will we see a couple more this week?
MetroLink:
St. Louis County residents will love the new MetroLink extension and they’ll forget about most of the delays and cost overruns (but not all). Efforts will begin to ask voters in the City and County to pony up for the next extension which will include North city and West County.
This has pretty much come true, look for a city & county vote for more funding for MetroLink in 2007.
St. Al’s:
One of the big issues I was writing about a year ago was the proposal to raze St. Aloysius Gonzaga. The developer failed to justify to the Preservation Board why the church could not be renovated but machine politics prevailed and Ald. Vollmer got his way with a redevelopment plan with the other aldermen conveniently ignoring good sense and approving the measure. In March 2006 I made the following prediction:
In place of this unique setting we’ll have some very ordinary houses — maybe. I’m not holding by breath. Based on what I’ve seen to date this developer won’t get very far beyond razing the historic structures. My prediction is he’ll get no more than 5 houses completed and sold this calendar year with another 5 in 2007. More than half the sites will remain vacant eyesores.
Well, it is too early to see if all of this will be the case but at this point only one house is occupied. A couple more displays are done with a number of others in various stages of construction.
2007:
I’m still working on my predictions for 2007. I’ll combine it with my “wish list” for 2007. Look for this later in the week.
How about taking a stab at the impact of the highway 40 construction, also, for mass appeal, you better weigh in on the 07 Cardinals chances!
“Boy, I really blew this one! I even went so far to revise this in June to $3.49/gallon. All the signs were there but I did not factor in the ability of those in Washington to open up the market in time for the election. It will happen, perhaps in 2007? World demand is increasing and supply is leveling-off.”
It continues to amaze me how many people continue to believe this nonsense about oil prices.
For the last time – oil prices are set by traders on a global market. Their goal is to try to make as much money as they can. These traders don’t care who is in power. In fact, most are not even American. They are located around the world. They are not interested in helping democrats or republicans. They are only interested in helping themselves. So “those in Washington” did nothing to “open up the market”. In fact, there is little they could do, even if they wanted to.
Your last statement is correct – “World demand is increasing and supply is leveling-off.” Gas will hit $5.00 before it hits $1.00.
“MetroLink:
St. Louis County residents will love the new MetroLink extension and they’ll forget about most of the delays and cost overruns (but not all). Efforts will begin to ask voters in the City and County to pony up for the next extension which will include North city and West County.
This has pretty much come true, look for a city & county vote for more funding for MetroLink in 2007”
Of course it’s come true that Metro is asking for more money. That will be an annual event for the rest of our lives and our children’s lives because the monster can not sustain itself.
The key here is that Metro is asking for more money just to sustain its current services during the construction of the “New I-64”. We’re a long ways away from the construction of any new lines (thank God).
I wish MODOT wouldn’t get so much money… since they cannot sustain themselves.
All things that cannot sustain themselves should not exist? Really, the argument that public transit shouldn’t exist since it can’t sustain itself is tired and old. It is a public good and public goods by there very nature can’t sustain themselves and require funding. St. Louis will need to develop a public transit system that includes many different modes of transport, and if you think otherwise then you must live in your own 1960’s bubble. We won’t be competitive if we don’t develop a modern transportation system. With the baby boomers getting older, younger people wanting more urban environments, employers wanting to offer their employees more urban environments, peak oil, and the demand to create a stronger social capital, urban living will be more in demand as the years go on and if our city isn’t prepared to offer the amenities that more progressive cities offer we will decline. While I would like it if Metro could cut down on future construction cost, they must continue building a modern transit system. Highways are also expensive to build and maintain and they don’t maintain themselves. Plus, when you factor in the cost to the private citizens and the negative externalities, they are a piss poor deal. 40,000+ people a year die on them in the U.S., air pollution, oil pollution, landscape destruction, division of towns and cities, dependence on foreign oil, social isolation, etc, etc, etc. They come nowhere near to paying for themselves. We need more options as a city, more freedom to choose.
If you want a viable public transit system, the simple reality is that it’s going to take more money. The transit systems that are doing well around the country receive a lot more taxpayer funding than Metro receives now. (Dallas and Denver, to name just two, spend more than four times as much on their [expanding!] systems than we do.) And yes, it all depends on your perspective. If you don’t see a need for public transit, the taxes you pay now are “excessive”. But the same can be said about any government service – I don’t have any kids (including any in school), so I’m not too interested in voting for more funding for public schools. In contrast, I can be convinced pretty easily to support higher taxes for transit, parks and, yes, even roads. The reality is, especially in urban areas, that we band together to support a range of services, that, taken collectively, raise the standard of living for all of us. The trick is balancing the diverse needs and managing our limited resources carefully and creatively. One big hurdle here remains the plethora of local governments (and in the city, wards), special districts and taxing entities, each with their own boards and budgets, with too many people with their “fingers in the pie” and way too much replication of jobs, equipment and services . . .
Well the highways are used by virtually everyone. Even someone who doesn’t drive on them probably buys goods that were shipped on them.
A very small percentage of the St. Louis metro area population uses any type of public transport on a regular basis — much less Metrolink. So why keep pumping Metrolink with cash just to provide a service to a small portion of the citizens? Don’t buses serve areas that are also served by Metrolink? As Sonic Youth says, What a waste.
Well transit is used by virtually every segment of society. Even someone who doesn’t ride transit probably buys goods from retailers that employ transit riders. A very small percentage of the St. Louis metro area population even drives Highway 40 on a regular basis — much less the Page Avenue extension. So why put the majority of roadway money into a few select projects? Don’t roads already serve areas that are also served by highways? As Sardonic Urbanites say, what irony.
Semi-trucks lined up on arterial roadways are a very good idea. Maybe they would slow down the rest of the traffic. Let’s get rid of highways. They are not worth it.
Let’s build another duplicative form of public transportation with the money we’ll save. We need to serve the same area with as many types of public transport as possible. If a person doesn’t like to take the bus, she should be able to take a trolley or light rail. Anything less and you are depriving people of options and that is not fair because we are trying to build a close-knit community built on equality.
We should also evaluate our public transportation for its hipness every 5 years. If the mode of transport is no longer hip then we should start a new mode that is deemed hip by people who study urbanity in colleges and universities. Otherwise, how will we attract the creative class and bolster the engines of our economy–coffee houses, book stores, vespa dealerships, sushi restaurants, and REIs.
Dude.
We should pump money into public transit because hopefully it will encourage people to use a form of transit that has fewer negative externalities, and public transit can also be used as a way to stimulate urban development. It would also help to save people a lot of money, which could then be invested into a better built environment, or the stock market. Also, we should plan for the future because a better, more efficient form of public transit will be needed. We shouldn’t get rid of the highways because they are still useful for inter-urban travel, but we shouldn’t put all of our eggs into one basket. If things change, we won’t be able to adapt…and things are changing in the world. I’m not quite sure how we can gauge the hipness of a transit system. I guess it is hip to give people more options, to want to reduce air pollution and loss of open space, to want to reduce the number of people that are needlessly killed each year because their only way to travel is the most unsafe way to travel. Areas will receive the form of transit that can serve them best. You can’t offer everyone everything, but that doesn’t mean that we shouldn’t attempt to build a modern system.
The argument that no one rides metrolink so it shouldn’t be funded is irrelevant. St. Louis lacks a comprehensive viable transit system, so it’s no wonder that it isn’t used more. If a road was built that didn’t connect to many other roads and didn’t go to many places do you think people would drive on it too often? Would that be an indication that roads are useless?
There are some here who are clearly against public transportation and feel that everyone ought to be required to buy a car if they plan to ever leave their neighborhood. So Craig, “Common Sense”, and others, what do you suggest to people who would rather not have to buy a car to function in a normal way? Should we all move to cities that do provide a viable form of public transit?
I’m curious what the general attitude is of St. Louis area people regarding public transit. Are most of them more like Craig or are they more like Steve? Is the tide turning? Should us public transit hungry folks stick it out or move on?
So Craig, “Common Sense”, and others, what do you suggest to people who would rather not have to buy a car to function in a normal way? Should we all move to cities that do provide a viable form of public transit? I’m curious what the general attitude is of St. Louis area people regarding public transit.
I will say that it’s difficult to get the general attitude of members of the area when your statistical cross section solely represents yuppies posting on the Internet, but my opinion is that Bi-State/Metro just doesn’t seem to care so much about increasing ridership.
The Shrewsbury Metrolink line has been open for four months now and just a week or two ago they finally put out some minimal signage on the stations. There are bus stop signs all over the city that don’t even have a route number stamped on them, and none tell you where the bus line goes or how often it runs. As even described on this very site, the trip planner tool on their website is painful to use and generates truly wacky travel plans.
All of these sorts of things combine to make it difficult to use public transit for quick one-off trips for which you’d normally use a car. In the amount of time that I’d spend trying to figure out how to take the bus from my office so I can get some tacos on Cherokee, I could have just driven there.
Whether it’s the intent or not, the marketing of the system (or lack thereof) has the unintended consequence of making driving more attractive.
Also, “Transit Oriented Development” needs to not be the sole guidepost as to where to lay out a transit system. Not everyone is going to embrace your personal opinion of not owning a car, and remember that a car dropped at a conveniently located park-n-ride is still a car that is driven less.
The city is for all. Riding mass transit can be a beautiful and fulfilling part of life. It is a different lifestyle than running around in an auto, parking in a massive parking lot and wandering across a sea of asphalt to the mass market box store.
Mass transit allows the rider to experience the art of the city in its fullness and wonder. A well designed city enhances life with art: buildings, fountains, squares and economic activity: markets, shops, stores. Transit supports walkable environments, the scale is human and many alternatives are available on a short walk.
Ride a well designed transit system in a well designed city and critics well understand the design of the current system in St. Louis is poor at best. Faulty design decisions of all types discourage usage of trains and buses. Beyond the design considerations that can help transit to contribute to daily life, there are other serious issues.
Americas’ national security interest demands that there is a multi layered system of movement. What if gas and oil suddenly became unavailable, especially over an extended period? This is real now. St. Louis would be in big trouble, quickly. Think about it, how would people move? get to the store, or the store get food for that matter.
A sensible transit system that compliments autos and is part of a comprehensive movement system that includes buses, walking, bicycles, scooters, streetcars, light rail, trains and taxis will help protect the ability of citizens to move freely in the city and the region at all times.
It would be difficult to attain the 70 percent of travelers who take transit to the center of the city everyday in Stockholm, Helsinki or Berlin, but any actions to support and promote alternate forms of movement will only enhance the security and welfare of society.
Steve, this is a subject that requires a lot of predictions. Your prediction that there will be more funding for MetroLink is a start and much needed at this point, but a complete house cleaning is in order.
For instance, remove responsibility for mass transit from MoDot and EWGCC and create a separate transit district. Maybe the new transit body should be elected by public vote. Much more debate is needed. Talk about predictions, how many lifetimes do you think it would take MoDot and EWGCC to build a viable alternate transportation system?
I wish I was a yuppie. I’m poor and can barely afford internet access. GMichaud and Kara have some good points to make…i’m going to bed. good night.