The Future Outlook on Downtown St Louis
It is probably easy to think the good times are over downtown: Nearly a month ago I brought the city the news of the closure of prominent developer, John Steffen’s Pyramid Companies. The new modern high rise SkyHouse planned for 14th and Washington has been abandoned and Centene is no longer moving their HQ from Clayton to St Louis and Ballpark Village. Big deal.
Generations of all ages are seeking something besides typical suburbia — houses hidden behind garages, strip malls, big box centers, the indoor mall, the office/industrial park , etc… This doesn’t mean everyone wants to live in downtown St Louis because that is not the case. However the perception of downtown has changed considerably over the last decade or so. This is not to say the current mayor or the current crop of downtown civic boosters deserve all the credit. They deserve some but much of it is simply a shift in demographics and taste. Just as decades ago many people fled to the suburbs in large part because everyone else was too. Times have changed and in smaller and bigger towns all over the country inner city areas are seeing renewed interest while the edge suburbs are not the sure thing they once were. People want to be in real cities be that strolling down a downtown street or having your choice to walk over to a restaurant on Hampton or to a great urban park such as Francis Park.
Downtown St Louis will survive the latest setbacks if we allow it to. Over-hyping projects that are not yet sure things is certainly a good way to set up the public to be disappointed and perceive downtown as having failed again. The current financial market conditions will not allow the rate of growth we’ve seen in the last decade but we will move forward.
Many storefronts remain to be leased. Many. It will take some time for the market to absorb these spaces. Eventually something will open. The more we patronize our local commercial districts the better they will do. This includes locally owned and chain places — such as the new Sprint store at Tucker & Washington Ave.
So many factors are in the right spots for a good next 10-20 years. The trick now is to not screw it up with bad decision making. We should now be looking at form-based zoning to guide new construction downtown and the rest of the city. Now is the perfect time to envision how we’d like to see our city develop over the next few decades. We should take advantage of this financial break to plan for the future.
Downtown would be helped by continued investment in transit. Smart businesses will recognize that downtown has the best transit access which more and more of their employees will be interested in using for their daily commutes. Building the Northside/Southside MetroLink lines would reinforce downtown as the center of the region. If we start now, it would be at least 10 years before the line would open, unless their are major policy changes at the federal level. A national transportation policy that would focus more resources on transit would be great for downtowns everywhere. Congress and the new president will have the transportation bill on their agenda in 2009.
Finally, gas was $.92/gal. when Metro opened 15 years ago. What if gas is four times as expensive 15 years from now?
So many factors were in the right spots 10 to 15 years ago but look what failed to happen and some of the most negative trends have become stronger with time. The country has been on one of the longest periods of prosperity, over 26 years, and the downtown has some of our greatest assets. However, these major assets were built-designed over four decades ago. In cities that are progressing and prospering, real estate asset values have skyrocketed. Researchers from the Federal Reserve Bank of NY found the average price of raw land in the New York metro area was at $366 per square foot in 2006, up sharply from $72 in 2002 and $47 in 1999, with prices highest in midtown and sharply dropping off with distance. The researchers say the increasing land prices also “indicate a rise in the perceived value of owning vacant parcels as potential building sites to meet future property demands.†What has land values done in the same period in StL, versus the county?
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The major trends in the StL region continue to be expanded roads and highways which lead to divided neighborhoods and divided communities. Even Danforth has recognized the problems with highways through downtown/next to the Arch and sees the need for change. But do you know where he built his new home? Is the New 64 really change or simply a larger version of what is already in existence? Metro management or East-West Gateway impress you? Care to discuss the north side? Forbes’ study on real estate pricing trends list StL as one of the four riskiest cities along with Detroit, Cleveland and Orlando…we also made their list of cities that are junk food-obsessed. What else do you expect in a city that is so auto-centrict? You even have written numerous entries on how poorly sidewalks are designed…who cares if the majority live in their cars?
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StL is part of a larger region and real estate trends have been fortified by local governments and city leadership that increasingly prefer to use blight, eminent domain and TIFs. Some would describe these trends as a direct outgrowth of the increasing need for tax revenues with little concern for the quality of life in the surrounding neighborhoods. The fallout will be more difficult to manage as the real estate market deteriorates. Business trends continue to be weak and major home based companies are now managed by absentee landlords …you do know what it is like to deal with those who homes are not next to yours? The “easy times” are over especially for communities that are overly dependent on autos-SUVs-trucks. As Warren Buffet said at his annual meeting, “the party is over”…too bad StL blew the opportunity when the time was right.
Steve, I’m glad to see your optimism, but I’m sure not feeling it myself. We can plan until we’re blue in the face, but until a lot more people choose to be in the city, all these plans will end up gathering dust on the shelves, like too many before them. It takes both money (investment) and political will to implement them. You’re involved in real estate, you know that perception, to too many people, IS reality. Between most suburbanites (and many southsiders) being afraid of the northern half of our fair city, a public school system that’s continuing its death spiral and that 1% earnings tax that convinces too many CEO’s that the city isn’t a place that’s friendly to business (especially ones with well-compensated employees), we have some fundamental, structural hurdles to get over before there’s going to be any real renaissance, high gas prices or not. We can build more transit, but until monthly parking costs twice as much as a monthly transit pass, it will be viewed as something for “other people” to use. (And the only way parking costs are going to go up is a lot more demand and/or a lot less supply.) Bottom line, until St. Louis becomes more attractive in a lot of areas (in comparison to its competitors, near and far), we’re going to continue to see more of the same.
I’m not too worried about Downtown.
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When all the bad news was shaking out about a month ago, I went for a walk Downtown. It was a nice evening, and there were a lot of people walking around. Washington Avenue was especially chock full of people and looked livelier than the Central West End. And I thought to myself, “It’s too late for the naysayers.†Despite Centene, Pyramid’s troubles and all the rest, Downtown has already turned the corner. We’re going to see a stall, but it’s not going to last years, and maybe not even one year.
The problems for St. Louis may be more strategic in nature.
The Urbanophile over in Indianapolis is grappling with some of the same issues for his city.
“Indianapolis: Mayor Ballard 100 Day Report”
http://theurbanophile.blogspot.com/
Here’s my drive-by take of what needs to happen:
1) Define a compelling strategy/vision that differentiates St. Louis from other Midwestern cities
2) Create/align/build consensus for revitalization goals and objectives that support the strategy
3) Make it happen
From a marketing perspective, what is the St. Louis “brand promise?” Why St. Louis? What will compel investors, visitors and future residents to choose (or continuing choosing) St. Louis?
My thought is the city’s near term future may be more like Youngstown, OH than Chicago (downsize infrastructure, focus on core assets, abandon and land bank parts of the city for future revitalization if necessary).
Downtown, especially, probably needs to get smaller, more concentrated and, hopefully, more vibrant and more attractive for investors before it gets bigger again.
I want to congratulate Tom on achieving part of his vision with the ‘WeCar.’ I remember you speaking about it a few years back. How is the program going? I would love to hear an update on that. By the way the Intermodal really turned out well. I think that whole area around Savis, Sheraton, Amtrak, Metro, is starting to really look the part and hopefully serve the functions attributed to it as well. I like it anyway.
And in contesting the Indianapolis comparison, there will always be a major difference between them and us. Their suburbs and city are one. We in St. Louis still remain apart. That fracture alone would be one thing I would love to see change in my lifetime. I actually think St. Louis suffers from some real P.R. issues as people see themselves different from it.
There are many in the older age bracket of St. Louis county and other areas that never come downtown, as there is nothing in there mind to do so. This is why I love the Susan G. Komen race so much, it brings down a demographic that ordinarily would not venture outside a predefined event zone, such as Busch , Jones dome, Forest park, or the Botannical Gardens. They assemble early in the A.M. and traverse the city streets. This event is a bigger deal than people give it credit for in DT. St. Louis. I have witnessed it from its start and marvel at what is possible that day in DT ST. Louis P.R. possibilities. I witnessed it for a few years, hearing people discuss a new revalation about DT that was commonplace to me. More so than any event. The Race for the Cure could and should be piggybacked by everyone DT for an ends to show us off.
Parking costs me $125 per month downtown. A metro pass is definitely less. If I didn’t to get around to meetings out of the office, I’d be leaving the car and riding Metrolink
Good post Steve,
Looking at the status of downtown today, I can’t help but look back and see how far it has come in the past decade.
In the early 90’s, the downtown area was COMPLETELY DEAD after 5pm. There were no sidewalk cafe’s. There was no need for green boxes encouraging people to pick up after pets. There were no people with pets!
Abandoned Washington Avenue warehouses are now being successfully sold out as condos or apartments.
The City overall has achieved significant improvement. Compared to 15 years ago, areas that were 100% rental property are now rehabbed and owner occupied. Neighborhoods are being cleaned up and shops are opening.
As a life-long St. Louisan, my tendency is to whine about what St. Louis isn’t. Working with people relocating to St. Louis from outside the area, its amazing to me that many are excited about what we have to offer.
Obviously there is room for criticism, but certainly not due to any recent events. Anyone with any feel for what has been going on downtown had to have known that developers were pressing forward agressively when ALL the signs were pointing towards slowing down.
As you suggested, we still have a job if we’re interested in continuing to improve the city. Centene to me still wasn’t a failure entirely. 5-10 years ago, they woundn’t have even CONSIDERED downtown.
Taking this time to get feedback from the community and look towards how our city can continue positive improvement is an excellent idea.
Optimism was everywhere! New stadium to be built along with adjoining structures, the Arch legs were reaching toward the skies, Gas Light Square was hopping and being served by the Smother Brothers, Woody Allen, Lenny Bruce, Miles Davis, Mike & Elaine, …even Kerouac and Ginsberg would stop in the Lou to be part of the unique blend of talent and hot bed of entertainment. DT was being given a major push for more tourists dollars not only with the Arch and new ballpark, but also with the Spanish Pavilion and revitalization of the river front for the Queen and new boats. New housing structures in midtown were being built so the disadvantaged could live in nicer homes. The population was still over 800 thousand and school problems were rare. DT businesses were thriving. Lambert was an international hub and home of the famous TWA. Regional carriers like Ozarks were started to fill the growing demand.
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The Dept of Highways/Transportation was optimistic too. Highway 40 needed to be expanded especially west of Skinker. 270 was being built and an inner belt (170) was designed to link 55 with 70 just west of the city’s western boundary. Most of the old trolley tracks had been removed and the sun was shining brightly out west. Yes I too am amazed by the progress made in the last 40 years.
Nice post Steve. Since I started working downtown in 1999, there has been a massive transformation that everyone in the region recognizes, even if they do not patronize Downtown, work there, or plan to ever live there. The momentum now is almost unstoppable, even if it will be temporarily slowed by the current economic conditions. Pyramid’s former projects will be completed by various parties. Spinnaker is moving forward with the Laurel, and plans to take on St. Louis Centre, as well as the MX Retail District. Other buildings like the Arcade and Leather Trades are already drawing interest from other developers. Something will be built north of Busch Stadium that will likely contain a mix of retail/restaurant, office, and maybe residential… the location is simply too valuable. Same goes for 14th and Washington. Maybe a 20 story tower was not the best solution for that corner anyway.
A good way to look at downtown is to compare it to the Loop. 10 years ago there was no reason to go east of Skinker on Delmar. Now it is a completely different environment, and much like downtown it is still evolving and growing. There are still vacant parcels and buildings and storefronts, but the momentum continues, even as there have been some projects there that have faltered such as the former Yellow Cab site. Again, something will eventually be built there.
Also we can compare Downtown to Clayton over the last decade. Clayton may have won Centene, and has had several other office buildings built as well as some residential. Overall though, much of Clayton is no more vibrant than it was a decade ago, and many of its streets are pretty desolate after 6pm. Downtown has seen a much wider scope of re-generation and has more integration of residential, office, and retail uses. This gives Downtown an edge over Clayton.
I look at downtown today as only half complete in terms of its overall redevelopment. It has come a long way in 10 years, and it will go a long way in the next 10, even if it is at a slower pace.
Steve makes a good point about planning and establishment of an urban code for new construction city-wide. For redevelopment of the North Side, this would make the difference between having it turn into another Winghaven or North Park as McKee would likely prefer, or something looks more like New Town (in density/form but not in style). Of course the other major issue to solve is schools. We can make all the rules we want, but families will not move to and will continue to move away from the City until that dilemma is tackled.
another city, another effort: http://www.denverpost.com/opinion/ci_9276017
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Vibrant cities and vibrant neighborhoods are created when “demand” is created and sustained and evolve over time. Whether it’s the CWE or Wrigleyville, Portland or Greenwich Village, there’s the “right” combination of appropriate density, interesting architecture, businesses with a certain “cool” factor, public transit that works and people wanting to be there, to live, work and recreate.
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Downtown St. Louis has great potential, but for whatever reason, seems to be lacking the spark to put all the pieces in place. I don’t know if it’s the perception of crime (petty or murders) or too much “opportunity” (too many vacancies) or no real core area (other than a few blocks on Washington).
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I’m guessing that getting rid of the pedestrian and mall bridges would be a good first step. I also can’t reconcile how to balance the evolving shift from office (or manufacturing) uses in many buildings to residential ones – a large amount of downtown’s building stock is made up of 20 to 40-year-old high-rise office buildings (and their obligatory adjacent parking structures) that can’t seem to attract the requisite “cool” businesses nor can be easily converted to residential uses. They’re too new to justify tearing down yet they don’t have the brick and wood or rough concrete that typifies “loft” living in many people’s minds (and in too many cases, have little or no exposure to daylight. as well). IF we could figure out how to attract more businesses to locate in these concrete canyons, then a synergy might develop to support the residential and retail side. But right now, they seem to be more of a drain than a spark . . .
hey all, longtime reader, first time poster. Steve, I love love love the site and wish you well on your recovery. I’m a KCian, but our cities share a variety of the same problems, and of course, the same beautiful, infuriating state.
Regarding downtown StL, and particularly Jim Zavist’s most recent comments – I believe that the vast scale and lack of a real ‘core’ area in downtown are two of the largest somewhat intangible factors holding DT StL back from developing into a truly powerful destination for business and residential uses. I spend a large amount of time in StL, and was in attendance at a Cubs-Cards game during their last home series…my girlfriend and I parked over near Washington, which is no doubt the crown jewel of DT StL’s rebrith, and walked over to Busch. The vibrance around the stadium and around Washington is quickly sapped along the walk across massive Market St., and unfortunately the almost complete 60’s-70’s-80’s rebuild of stretches of downtown will make it difficult to attract the kinds of ‘cool’ uses that might otherwise find desirable space in, say, a historic warehouse or streetfront retail spot. DT StL feels huge, with a lot of open space and suburban-esque glass office buildings. Wash Ave, of course, is delightful, with great scale, beautiful building stock and a sense of real, organic vibrance, and the Ballpark Village site will no doubt be developed at some point, creating a nice mix of dense uses to the north and west of Busch, but the connections between these areas are lacking dramatically. DT StL really does need to ‘shrink’ a bit, to focus its energy into the areas that have the building stock and/or investment (i.e. stadiums, metrolink, City Museum) that will attract visitors and residents alike. Simply improving connections between existing infrastructure and hotspots would seem a better investment than more disconnected mega-projects, which seem to be among the recent batch of potential developments DT (M/X, SkyHouse, Roberts, BPV).
another city, similar perspective: http://www.post-gazette.com/pg/08141/883163-28.stm
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