Looking Ahead To March 3, 2009
The November Presidential election is just around the corner but locally speculation is running high for the St Louis Democratic Primary on March 3, 2009. The general is in April but in our one party town the real election is the primary for the Democratic Party. While the local Democrats may all come together to elect President Obama they’ll be split apart by the beginning of March 2009.
The main buzz is about potential challengers to Mayor Francis Slay, who will be seeking a third 4-year term. Former Alderman and current License Collector Mike McMillan is mentioned often. Outgoing State Senator Maida Coleman is also thought to be considering a run. State Rep Tom Villa is term limited like Sen. Coleman. Villa — a former President of the Board of Alderman, is thought to be pondering a run as well. Each of these three would be formidable opposition for Slay — more so than frequent candidate Bill Haas.
Slay’s hefty campaign bank account is thought to discourage serious competition. Very likely that is the case. Which is unfortunate as competition is healthy. So getting someone fresh to run is very unlikely as the cost to get their name out there in front of the voters is more than a grass-roots campaign can overcome. With no limits to fund raising a wealthy candidate might be able to get the job done.
But for McMillan, Coleman & Villa they already have good name recognition. Each has won a city-wide or large district election at least once. Each is also a seasoned politician. Villa & Coleman are out of their current positions anyway due to term limits. What do they have to lose by running? McMillan was elected License Collector in 2007 so he could run for Mayor in 2009 without risking his current position.
Which brings us to Comptroller Darlene Green. Her office is up for re-election at the same time. For her to run for Mayor would mean not running for Comptroller. Green can probably very easily win re-election to the position of Comptroller but a run for Mayor wouldn’t be so easy. Giving up a pretty sure thing on the chance for a higher office is a tough decision.
Another former President of the Board of Aldermen that might run is Jim Shrewsbury, who was defeated by Lewis Reed in 2007. Reed is another name to watch although I don’t see him moving up just yet. Like McMillan, Reed could run and still retain his office if he lost.
Should be an interesting election if one or more people do try to limit Slay to two terms in office.
And then we have the election of half of the Board of Aldermen. The odd-numbered wards are up in 2009. It’s hard to believe its been nearly four years since I ran for Alderman in the 25th ward, and lost 44.1% to 55.9%.
I haven’t seen anything on the 1st. Anyone out there to challenge Troupe?
In the 3rd Ward look for a rematch of the 2005 race between incumbent Freeman Bosley Sr and Jeffry Hardin. In 2005 Hardin barely lost.
April Ford-Griffin wasn’t the Alderman back when I lived in the 5th Ward. She is the one that told me you don’t use zoning to communicate a community vision — you use zoning as a means of politically extracting something out of a developer. See post w/video here.
The 7th: No secrets here, I’d love to see someone more pro-active in this seat. Someone to lead the ward to articulate a collective vision for future development rather than sponsor quickly closing coffee drive-thrus lacking pedestrian access and even faster closing furniture stores. Someone that will work to get rid of the taxi stand from the sidewalk in front of the convention center.
Ken Ortmann, in the 9th, is a nice guy and less conventional than most. You also can’t email him. We are well into the 21st century, email is a must for anyone expecting to serve the public well.
In the 11th Matt “Loughborough Commons” Villa will probably be re-elected again simply based on the fact nobody is likely to run against him. Election to a 4-year office due to lack of an opponent is just mind boggling to me. This part of St Louis has been represented by a Villa for decades. Family legacies are hard to break.
Fred Wessels, in the 13th, was my alderman from 1994-2001 when redistricting meant I was then in the 25th – by one block.  Like most I just don’t see any progressive or pro-active action here. Very old school.
Will he or won’t he? In 2001 Mike Daus lost the election for Alderman in the 15th by like 20 votes to Jennifer Florida. Daus is now termed out of office as a State Rep and is thought to be considering a rematch with Florida – this time with 8 years experience as a State Rep under his belt. I hope he runs, it would make the 15th one of the most interesting of aldermanic races in 2009.
17th: Joe Roddy had a strong challenge in 2005 from Rodney Burchfield. Will he be back for a second round or will someone else go for the 17th
The 19th is McMillan’s former ward. Marlene Davis was elected to the aldermanic seat in a special election when McMillan resigned to take office as the License Collector. This election will be the first full term election for Ald. Davis.
I’m just guessing we’ll see a race in the 21st. This ward likes a good race.
Kathleen Hanrahan is the 23rd Alderman. With Mayor Slay leaving the ward when he moves to his new house this may change the dynamics, although his father is still the committeeman. I’m just not inspired by Hanrahan anymore than I am by most of the others.
In the 25th we know only that I won’t be running as I did in 2005 as I moved to the 6th ward in late 2007. Presumably Dorothy Kirner will seek another term in office?
Like the 23rd I think we’ll see a challenge in the 27th. Just a hunch.
And yes, we have too many seats on the Board of Aldermen. Eliminating party affiliation for municipal/county offices, reducing the number of aldermen and setting term limits would do wonders to keep new blood in the system.
steve for mayor. that’s all i got to say.
Mayor Slay has already moved – there’s an open house at his old place on Sunday.
I don’t think McMillan is likely to run. He has a good gig now and would probably rather wait four more years, at which time Slay may not choose to run for a fourth term. I don’t see Tom Villa trying it either. He and Slay share largely the same base and would likely split the vote, making a default win possible for a third candidate. Maida Coleman? Don’t see it. She’s central corridor and a seasoned pol, but I don’t think she could woo enough of Slay’s people away. While a number of people here will disagree, I think that much of the city’s voting population is generally pleased with the current state of the city. Certain positive trends have emerged during Slay’s tenure that, rightly or wrongly, he and his administration take credit for. I have strongly criticized the mayor many times, but have to admit that his administration brought sorely needed urgency to the development climate in the city. I don’t think that it’s all dumb luck that development downtown and elsewhere surged right around the time he became mayor in 2001. Say what you will about him, but he deserves at least some of the credit for jump-starting stagnant development, moving it from years of blah blah blah to permitting and construction. Geisman too has her detractors for various reasons, but her prodigious energy and unrelenting hard work are unparalleled in city government, in my opinion. Her “style” may not always please, but she eats, sleeps, dreams and breathes St. Louis. Altogether, I think that Slay will be mayor about as long as he wants to be. The interesting time will come when he decides not to run again. It will be a crowded dog fight.
When estimating future political contests in the city, you need to factor in more than the obvious single seat-to-seat races. You have to consider the multifaceted possibilities. Politicians make deals.
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Try this on for size…Shrewsbury cuts a deal with Darlene Green. Shrewsbury runs for Comptroller – a seat he’s always wanted – and Green runs for Mayor.
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Majority black St. Louis elects a black mayor, and Shrewsbury gets his long coveted Comptroller post. Shrewsbury and Green form a majority of two on E and A, and Reed is the odd man out.
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Seeing the threat, Slay convinces Lewis Reed to run for Mayor, with the promise that by splitting the black vote, Reed helps Slay retain his seat. Slay promises to back Reed for a mayoral run in the next election.
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The net result is Reed/Shrewsbury/Slay on E and A, with Reed and Slay being a majority of two and Shrewsbury being considered the spoiler/reformer (a role he enjoys).
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This scenario lays the groundwork for a rematches later between Shrewsbury and Green for comptroller or Reed and Green for Mayor.
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Notice that none of the above factor in the political ambitions of Greg Daly, Mike McMillan, Mariano Favazza, the Villas, or many other St. Louis political families? Why do you think people like Joyce Aboussie are in such demand?
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With so much political intrigue, why would you want to live anywhere else?
Does anyone know if new 21st Ward Democratic Committeman and author of the PubDef blog, Antonio French, supports current alderman Bennice Jones King?
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Does French support the efforts of the North Newstead Association? The last time Bennice Jones King was defeated, the North Newstead Association was nearly put out of business, thanks to one term alderman, Melinda Long.
Joe Vaccaro is already looking towards the 23rd. Kathleen Hanrahan told a member of the St Louis Realtor’s Association that she heard Collen Bridges and Tom Noser were also eyeing the position. Dave Drebes in the spring gave the names of Mike Sorth and Mary Homan. Mike Sorth has since decided to not run according to certain members of the 67th House and 4th Senatorial.
CANDIDATE Date Established:7/1/2008
Date Terminated:
COMMITTEE: MECID:C081332
FRIENDS OF JOE VACCARO INC
2130 HAMPTON AVE
ST LOUIS MO 63139
TELEPHONE:(314) 781-8844
TREASURER: BRIAN D SWEENEY
727 LE MANNS DR
BALLWIN MO 63021-7059
WORK PHONE: (314) 552-4119
HOME PHONE:(636) 394-3430
DEP. TREASURER: CRYSTAL SUE VACCARO
6227 HANCOCK AVE ST LOUIS MO 63139
WORK PHONE:(314) 781-8844
HOME PHONE:(314) 645-3038
CANDIDATE: JOSEPH VACCARO JR
6227 HANCOCK AVE
ST LOUIS MO 63139
TELEPHONE:(314) 645-3038
OFFICE SOUGHT: ALDERMAN WARD 23 – CITY OF ST LOUIS
Date of Election:3/3/2009
Political Party:DEMOCRAT
Is McMillan going to come out of the closet if he runs?
Why not? I think it is time St. Louis embraces our GLBT community. I am not a big fan of Mr. McMillan but if he would finally come out and be proud I think I could look past some of his past bad politcal decisions.
If we want to be a progressive city we need to take this first tiny step. An openly gay license collector is a good start.
I agree with Steve – one’s sexuality, religious views and number of children, to name just a few issues, have little to do with one’s ability to serve well and to lead successfully. I want to elect someone who shares goals similar to mine, is motivated, responsive to constituent concerns, is ethical in their dealings, and is willing to focus both on their ward and the greater good of the city. And if someone wants to come out of the closet, or chooses to stay in it, I really don’t care.
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Since I live in the 23rd, it’s good to see a contested race coming. Unfortunately, I know none of the folks a.n.m. listed – guess I’ll be doing some research!
Well I don’t agree with you Jim or with Steve. I want candidates who share my goals and values too. One of those is honesty. Since gays and lesbians are treated as 2nd class citizens and the Republican party is advancing in the polls, it’s time for our officials to be honest and stop hiding. Maybe he is planning to come out. What if he’s asked point blank and denies it? If that’s who you want in office go for it. This is public office we are talking about.
Will Darlene Green run for Mayor?
I’d love to run in the 7th, but since this town is addicted to only electing dem’s, I wouldn’t stand a chance. You were right though, it would be nice to see some competition for a change.
By the way. It’s good to be home! You never realize how great this city is until you leave for a while.
How about Rodney Hubbard? After a narrow loss for state senate, he’s in the market for something new….in any of these possible job shuffling scenarios, perhaps he’ll make a play for something.
Joe Vaccaro owns Hampton Car Wash and is an Airport Commissoner. Mary Homan and Colleen Bridges are members of Saint Joan of Arc (Colleen with kids about grade school age) and Tom Noser attends Epiphany with kids just finishing college.
In the 25th we know only that I won’t be running as I did in 2005 as I moved to the 6th ward in late 2007. Presumably Dorothy Kirner will seek another term in office? NO, MAGGIE LAMPE IS GOING TO RUN!!!
WE NEED AN ALDERMAN IN THE 9TH WHO IS GOING TO CARE ABOUT THE WARD, JUST NOT BENTON PARK AND KEEPING THE PARK HOUSE!
While, I don’t think he is running, Lewis Reed would be the best match up against the mayor. He has southside supporters (look at numbers v. Shrewsbury) and would lock down the Northside. Again, I don’t think he is ready yet, but would be a much better challenger to the mayor than McMillan, Green or anybody else because he has ‘white support’ which is lacking with any other African-American candidate. His base and politics are much more progressive than any of the other candidates because he is not one of the typical ‘St. Louis politicians’ because he isn’t from St. Louis and has made it on his own without a family name or blatant racist politics. 2013 should be really, really interesting because there may be a lot of politics played with all sorts of factions in the city battling it out.
With yesterday’s announcement that Cordish and the Reds want to extend their bonds for BPV for an additional 10 years*, and the current Board’s apparent willingness to approve the concept, there’s all the more reason to get some new people in down there. Few retail concepts are viable for more than 30 years, so doing a 35-year bond would mean that the city will likely see no new revenue, ever, and best case, wouldn’t see any until nearly 2050 (when many of us will be dead). The city’s role is not to fund special interests and to make developers rich. The city’s role is to deliver fundamental services to its citizens. What if we were just now paying off bonds that paid for the bulk of the work for Laclede’s Landing or Union Station or that City Center Mall and were expecting to see some big spike in sales tax revenues? They were OK ideas when they opened, but significant revenues now? Not!
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*Much like a residential mortgage, bonds are front loaded with interest payments. Most of the additional revenues will go to the bond holders, not to Cordish, the Reds or the city. And I don’t buy the argument that “it won’t make money” unless we have a longer term – it either will be profitable or it won’t, and making the city a silent (and stupid?) partner chasing a dream that isn’t viable simply makes no sense!
Zavist-
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Do you mean Reds or Cardinals? Is Cordish doing another BPV in Cincy?
I would love to see Shrewsbury to run for mayor!! He would have my vote!
Ooops . . . meant the Cards
I won’t have a vote so my two cents worth is literally two cents worth. My question for the sake of the city. Does any of the city politicians take a stand against the 1/2 cent payroll tax (Cent one – my wife works downtown so in a way I do have a vested interested, cent one)? None of the above will do much better on the economic front then Slay when employers don’t have that burden in the county and Metro East makes up for high state taxes by waiving property taxes on new warehouses and light industrial. The city has to face the fact that a lot of tax credits and incentives are being thrown out their just to keep some businesses to stay while getting developers just do something in the city (Including a lot of Federal and State historic tax credits – another vested interest on my part, cent two).
If I was Slay, I would base my choice of re-election on who is elected President. Because of one simple question. How is the city going to get funds from programs to infrastructure since city tax reform is a non-starter. He doesn’t have many ways to leverage any more tax dollars and the city is certainly not going to get anything from the state in the latest down turn (including tax credits). So the feds are the cities only hope in my mind. That will depend a lot on the Presidential election.
I had some unsupported notion that Lou Reed might be a different sort of pol, then he goes and tries to hire a body guard. Sounds like an out sized ego to me and a disappointment. He won with an exceptionally light turnout. I doubt he can win city wide again.
Heres my prediction:
Green – why give up a good thing to lose it all?
Reed – See ya in 2016 – 8 years of responsible steering of the BOA will mean alot even with a do nothing Mayor
Daly – see Green
McMillan – I say wait, bank the money, become visible in the community outside of the LC position and have a team ready to go in 2011. Oh yeah , find someone else to be LC.
Favazza – run baby run
Hubbard – run baby run
23rd Ward – possible 4 way primary? yowza!! it’ll all come down to the quality of candidate and who can appeal to that broad base in the 23rd. Getting the ward endorsement/blessing will also be key. Tough to unseat an incumbent though.
I Would Love To See Jim Shrewsbury To Go Beat Incumbent Francis Slay D-St.Louis Big Time As MAyor Of St.LOuis,Mo.
And I Wolud Love To See Mayor Jim Shrewsbury To Have The St.Louis Metropolitan Towing Company And Aimee Mokwa
Placed Under Federal Investigation And Placed Under Arrest Now, And I Would Love To See Mayor Jim Shrewsbury To Go
Have Anheusier-Busch Restored To It’s Former Glory Without The Inbev Merger Now. And I Would Love To See Mayor Jim Shrewsbury To Keep The St.LOuis Public Schools Safe,Clean And To Make Sure The Teachers At The St.Louis Public Schools
Do Thier Jobs With More Students Learning And Graduating From St.Louis Public Schools Permantly Across The City Of
St.Louis,Mo. Now
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