Did St. Louis Attract Young Whites?
St. Louis’ low cost of living excludes us from an emerging trend of the 2010 Census:
“The number of white children is growing in several large urban centers where the cost of living is high, a trend that runs counter to the decline in white youths in much of the USA.” (USA Today: Urban areas drawing young whites)
A demographer quoted in the article says expensive urban settings are “a new magnet for white families with children.” Young white families with children used to be an assumed for new suburban areas but increasingly these families are choosing urban over suburban living.
Census figures are showing population increases for Asian and Hispanics, thus lowering the percentage of whites overall, making the trend that much more remarkable in those cities. My own anecdotal observations over the last decade shows a similar trend in St. Louis.
The City of St.Louis has much in common with the state, the percentage of persons of Hispanic or Latino origin, for example. A look at the U.S. Census Quick Facts, however, shows various figures.
One thing is certain, demographers will pour over the 2010 figures for years — until 2021 when the 2020 Census figures are released.
– Steve Patterson
USA Today article aside, this post seems very presumptuous of you, especially given how the Census will reveal, this week, 2010 data about the City of St. Louis, St. Louis County, and all of Missouri.
It is hard to speculate AFTER the figures have been released.
The data you are looking at is from 2009 estimates or earlier. As I said before, data from the 2010 Census for Missouri has not yet been released, but will be released sometime this week.
Speculation absent data is poor journalism. Anecdotal observations over the last decade are about as reliable as surveys with only a handful of respondents. I'm with Herbie – I'm more interested in analysis than speculation.
I was pondering a trend we've seen so far and setting up a scenario for post-data analysis.
If thinking quality (of life), instead of quantity (of people), then total number of households (or occupied housing units), percentage of college graduates, and per capita income are all much more important to a city's future than total population.
But I wouldn't be surprised if St. Louis pulled out a small gain in population from ten years ago. Basically, St. Louis is performing as Chicago did ten years ago. That is, St. Louis is attracting smaller-on-average middle-income households, but still not too expensive (yet?) to push out larger-than-average working-class households.
And if other cities (in the 1990's) are any indicator, this initial gain in population is actually laying the foundation for increased gentrification next decade. And that's when per capita income really starts to matter more than the actual capita. But since St. Louis has so emptied out, future gentrification may not even displace others, unlike other, more expensive cities.
It looks as if you're right. The 2000 Census numbers show 156,000 Whites in St.Louis (43.8%). The 2009 estimates show 170,000 whites (48%). Interesting.
Are you wishing more white people moved to the area or are you just trying to make an observation? I noticed you mentioned Latinos & Asians but nothing about African Americans – which seems a little strange in my opinion.
Historically St. Louis has lost whites and nationally we expect gains from Hispanics & Asians. St. Louis has also lost African-Americans but their percentage has increased due to the huge loss in whites.
I actually hope that the above poster is right that St. Louis is slowly (maybe glacially would be a better word) towards gentrification. South St. Louis vaguely feels like a part of Brooklyn i used to live in which went from dangerous-but-interesting to (in my opinion) overly-gentrified but overall a pretty sweet place to own/rent. St. Louis' disadvantage of an overstocked housing might just be the advantage it needs to continue to attract singles/couples/families just starting out.
And I also just want to say that I really don't see why someone who is writing on their own blog not an article in the Post-Dispatch can speculate on what the data looks like it's trending towards. The interpretation could be wrong – which i don't think it is – but isn't the point of a blog to voice an opinion/interpretation on something? Honestly, I read this blog because of Patterson and other commenters opinions. If someone with their ear to the ground finds that the people they talk to are starting to feel differently about their neighborhood and city (less safe, more safe, more exciting, more economical, etc), then I'm interested in that.
Speaking anecdotally, I know many younger white professionals that have moved into St. Louis. My question is, will they stay?
Five or so years from now, when they have school age children, what will keep them in the City? Unless the schools get fixed, I wouldn't expect these trends to be permanent.
It will continue to be the same trend that has been plaguing St. Louis for the last 3 decades. Couple buys house in city, has children, moves out when they come to school age. Fix the schools keep people in the city, its pretty simple. Oh yeah fixing the crime wouldn't hurt either.