Readers Wrong On Closest Primary Race
I know from experience that political polls generate fewer responses than other topics I cover, still this was a timely poll and I was curious.
\Here are the final poll results:
Q: Which race in the August 7th primary will be the closest:
- MO US Rep Dist 1 (Dems: Britton, Clay, Carnahan) 26 [36.62%]
- STL Treasurer (Dems: Wessels, Wahby, Jones, Boyd) 21 [29.58%]
- MO US Senate (GOP: Akin, Beck, Steelman, Brunner, Memoly, Lodes, Poole, Maldonado) 13 [18.31%]
- Unsure/no opinion 6 [8.45%]
- MO State Senate Dist 5 (Dems: Wright-Jones, Nasheed, Mott-Oxford) 3 [4.23%]
- MO Lt. Gov (GOP: Kulmann, Lager, Kinder, Carter) 2 [2.82%]
Readers clearly thought Russ Carnahan stood a chance against Lacy Clay. Voters yesterday proved otherwise. With 97% of the precincts reporting Clay won with a 27 point spread — not even remotely close. So which race was the closest?
Lieutenant Governor (R): The Republican nomination for Lt. Governor turned out to be the closest of those on my list. Incumbent Peter Kinder defeated Brad Lager by just 2 points (44% to 42%). Only two readers correctly selected that option in the poll.
St. Louis Sheriff (D): Also by a 2 point spread was the democratic race for St. Louis Sheriff. Incumbent James Murphy defeated challenger Vernon Betts by 2 points (46% t0 44%). A third candidate, David Mosley, received 10%. This race wasn’t in the poll but an option for a race not listed was, no readers voted for that answer.
US Senate (R): US Rep Todd Akin was 6 points ahead of John Brunner with 96% of the precints reporting. Sarah Steelman was just behind Brunner with 29%. Readers correctly thought this would be the third closest race.
St. Louis Treasurer (D): State Rep Tishaura Jones defeated #2 Ald. Alfred Wessels with an 8.6 point spread (34.92% to 26.31%). Ald. Jeffrey Boyd finished less than a point behind Wessels with 25.50% and Brian Wahby finished a distant 4th place with 13.27% of the vote. Readers thought this race would be the 2nd closest.
Missouri’s 5th Senate District: State Rep Jamilah Nasheed defeated incumbent Robin Wright-Jones by 11 points (41% to 30%). State Rep Jeanette Mott-Oxford came in third with 29%.
My personal choices were among the winners and losers. In most of these races no candidate got at least 50% + 1 vote. Instant-runoff voting would’ve been a nice option and it might have changed a few outcomes.
Note: This post was finished at 11:30pm Tuesday August 7, 2012. Final results may vary from those shown above.
— Steve Patterson
In none of these larger races was there a 50% + 1 margin, but there was in the mid-County 87th House district, Stacey Newman defeated Susan Carlson by 1 vote.
I was a bit surprised Murphy won for Sheriff. How bad of a record do you need to lose in this city?
http://www.votevroman.com or Facebook Vote Vroman 🙂
Hey Steve, I think that’s neat that you guys passed, with a 7:1 margin, the amendment that will allow Wickans and Muslims the freedom to conduct public prayer in the public schools. Waytogo Missouri.
Alf