St. Louis Population May Drop Below 300K In 2020 Census

We’re still seven years away from the 2020 census but it’s already on my mind. Last month I attended at I attended a lunch where the two speakers talked about Detroit and St. Louis. From the invite:

Detroit’s New Plan for Urban Regeneration and What It Means for St. Louis

Speakers:

Alan Mallach, senior fellow of the National Housing Institute, is the author of many works on housing and planning, including Bringing Buildings Back and Building a Better Urban Future: New Directions for Housing Policies in Weak Market Cities. He served as director of housing and economic development for Trenton, N.J. from 1990 to 1999. He is also a fellow at the Center for Community Progress and the Brookings Institution.

John Gallagher is a veteran journalist and author whose latest book, Reimagining Detroit: Opportunities for Redefining an American City, was named by The Huffington Post as among the best social and political books of 2010. He joined the Detroit Free Press in 1987 to cover urban and economic redevelopment efforts in Detroit and Michigan, a post which he still holds. His other books include Great Architecture of Michigan and, as co-author, AIA Detroit: The American Institute of Architects Guide to Detroit Architecture.

One of the two said Detroit has accepted that it has shrunk and it is likely to shrink more in the 2020 census, that St. Louis is also likely to lose population again — possibly falling below 300,000. The fact is this may well happen.

Still, others love to dump on St. Louis. For example, a recent opinion piece in the Kansas City Star titled Kansas City is rising as St. Louis keeps falling:

• In 1950, St. Louis was the eighth largest U.S. city, with 857,000 people. But by 2010, St. Louis had lost a stunning 538,000 people and plummeted to the 58th largest city, with only 319,000 residents.

• In 1980, St. Louis was still Missouri’s largest city, barely ahead of Kansas City. But by 2010, Kansas City’s population of 460,000 was 44 percent larger than St. Louis’. 

In response friend Matthew Mourning posted on Facebook:

The 1940 city limits of KC were a 58 square mile box of the Missouri River (N), State Line Rd. (W), Blue River (E), and 79th Street (S). (St. Louis is, and has been since the 1876 divorce, 62 square miles, while present day Kansas City tops out at 315 sq. mi. after a series of annexations).

Those 1940 KC city limits had a population of 400,178. In 2010, the population of the same approximate area was *184,803*. That’s a drop of ~215,000, or nearly 55%. St. Louis’s core loss was around 62% since 1940. – Matthew Mourning via Facebook

The point is to look at what’s happening in the core, not including ring after ring of low-density sprawl. Our fixed city limits is the regional core whereas cities like Kansas City and Oklahoma City were able to annex as population fled their core.

Kansas City is denser than Oklahoma City, but that’s not saying much. St. Louis, Detroit, & Cleveland being denser than the acclaimed Portland OR is huge. But numbers themselves can be deceiving, Portland has very dense central neighborhoods. It’s very walkable & cyclist friendly.

In the 2010 census our tracks that had investment in becoming more urban (downtown, near north & south) saw increases in population, while north & south St. Louis continued to lose population. Wake up St. Louis, we need to make the entire City of St. Louis urban/walkable/bikeable. Not in a half-ass way either, the whole deal with transit, strong pedestrian plan, modern zoning.

Auto-centric monstrosities like Loughborough Commons can’t keep happening if we expect to stop the loss of population. But I don’t see any willingness or leadership to prioritize urbanizing more than a few pieces here and there, fragmented in true St. Louis fashion.

If we stay on our current course I wouldn’t be surprised if we drop below 300,000 when the 2020 census comes out in 2021.

Poll: What is Your Preferred Route For Streetcar Line West Out of Downtown St. Louis?

Plans were presented to the public last week to built a 7-mile modern streetcar line in St. Louis that would:

• Circulate in the downtown central business district.
• Head west on Olive/Lindell past Midtown to the Central West End.
• A north-south segment would connect at 14th Street & Olive, initially going north Florissant Rd to St. Louis Ave. and south to the Civic Center MetroBus Center/MetroLink light rail.
• Open in 2016/17.

Metro is part of the planning process and this would become part of our transit system. But I know some of you still question the effectiveness of the streetcar over the bus. To be fair, here is a skeptical view that I happen to agree with.

Streetcars that replace bus lines are not a mobility improvement. If you replace a bus with a streetcar on the same route, and make no other improvements, nobody will be able to get anywhere any faster than they could before. This makes streetcars quite different from most of the other transit investments being discussed today.

Where a streetcar is faster or more reliable than the bus route it replaced, this is because other improvements were made at the same time — improvements that could just as well have been made for the bus route. These improvements may have been politically packaged as part of the streetcar project, but they were logically independent, so their benefits are not really benefits of the streetcar as compared to the bus. (source – highly recommended)

He’s right that streetscape improvements are just as important as the mode of transit, but funding realities mean a complete makeover of 7 miles for a bus isn’t very likely. Even if it was, a streetcar is a better choice for other reasons:

Streetcar vs. Bus

Buses are excellent local and regional public transportation options, but they will do little to spur redevelopment and economic investment in Downtown LA. This is due to the inherent flexibility of bus service, as routes change regularly to accommodate varying needs; in addition, buses contribute to nerve-racking pedestrian experiences due to heavy street-level emissions and noise pollution that discourages active use of sidewalks. Streetcars do the exact opposite. They provide developers and business owners certainty that the routes will not change, and are considered preferable to buses by residents, visitors, and employees as they offer more amenities, highly reliable routes and timetables, and enhanced urban experiences.

Buses and streetcars do, however, work together to connect access points within regional transportation networks. For example, sidewalks can be designed to specifically accommodate both vehicle configurations; in return, a transit stop effectively doubles its value within a regional transportation network. (LA Streetcar)

And…

While it’s true that streetcars require a much larger initial capital investment than buses, that capital cost is offset by significant operational savings year to year. In the long term, streetcars are more affordable as long as they are used on high ridership routes.

Streetcars have higher passenger capacity than buses (even bendy ones), which means that if there are lots of riders on your route, you can move them with fewer vehicles. Fewer vehicles means more efficient use of fuel and fewer (unionized, pensioned) drivers to pay.

Streetcar vehicles themselves are much more sturdy than buses, and last many decades longer. While buses must generally be retired and replacements purchased about every 10 years, streetcars typically last 40 years or more. For example, Philadelphia’s SEPTA transit system is still using streetcar vehicles built in 1947. (Washington Post — recommended)

Even in Portland the value of streetcars have been debated, critics questioning claims of Mayor Hales:

So that brings us to the ruling. Hales said “streetcars carry more people than buses … you attract more riders who don’t ride transit now, and actually the operating costs are not any greater than the bus.” Whether these arguments make a persuasive case for the necessity and usefulness of a streetcar system is, of course, up for debate. The statement itself remains factual. While, there’s some missing context, it’s nothing significant. We rate this claim True. (PolitiFact Oregon)

For a detailed look at operating costs of streetcars vs bus click here. Labor tends to be a big factor why streetcars are cheaper to operate.

For the poll this week I want you to vote on your preferred route. I’ve included “don’t build” as an option as well as my idea of Olive to Vandeventer to Delmar: described here.

The poll also has the two options from the study (p17):

My views on a St. Louis streetcar are evolving, more on Wednesday March 20. The poll is in the right sidebar (mobile users need to switch to the desktop layout)

— Steve Patterson

Parking Space Half Into Public Sidewalk

In August 2011 I addressed part of the parking issue at Vito’s on Lindell (see Where is Vito’s Disabled Parking?). Last week I had dinner at Vito’s, going in I spotted another problem with how their parking lot is designed. 

This car is parked in what appears to be a legitimate parking space in their lot. The problem is the space isn’t even long enough for a smart fourtwo so any car parked in the space sticks out into the public sidewalk.

The city has minimum requirements for the size of parking spaces, and the sidewalk can’t be counted toward the minimum.  Vito’s needs to redesign their parking lot to provide a disabled space and to eliminate this space that extends over the sidewalk.

— Steve Patterson

Partisan Candidates Selected For April 2nd General Election

On Tuesday each party selected their candidates to face  each other in the general election.  Apparently we have so many candidates seeking office in St. Louis we must first hold a partisan primary to narrow the field and then a general election where the candidate from each party faces the other and all the independents.

Let’s take a look at all 17 races to see how who was selected to represent each party in the April 2nd primary:

• Mayor: James Eldon McNeely (G) received 115 votes, defeating nobody in the primary, will face incumbent Francis Slay (D). In the 3-way primary Slay had a 10 point victory over President of the Board of Aldermen Lewis Reed and Jimmie Mathews barely registered with 1.31% of the vote. No independent or Republican candidates filed. Unless something major happens, Slay will win an unprecedented fourth 4-year term. Reed’s current seat is up again in two years.
• Comptroller: Jerome Bauer (G)received 108 votes, defeating nobody in the primary, will face Darlene Green (D) who also defeated nobody in the primary. No independent or Republican candidates filed.
• 1st Ward: None of the three candidates in the Democratic primary received greater than 50% of the 1,676 votes. No independent, Green, or Republican candidates filed. Former alderman Sharon Tyrus will be returning to city hall having received 800 votes. Incumbent Charles Troupe came in second with 570. Yolanda Brown got 306 votes.  Read how Tyus got redistricted out of office here.
• 3rd Ward: After the 4-way primary race  incumbent Freeman Bosley Sr. (D) will return to city hall, no independent, Green, or Republican candidates filed. Only 1,483 voted in this race with Bosley receiving 799, Anthony Bell (264), Jeffrey Hardin (261), and Maxine Johnson (159). Bosley has held this seat since April 1989.
• 5th Ward: By far the biggest disappointment of the primary was Tammika Hubbard (D) winning a full term in office, defeating Michelle Hutchings-Medina (713 to 573). No wonder given the family tactics. No independent, Green, or Republican candidates filed.
• 7th Ward: David Brent Gordon (G) received 1 vote, defeating nobody in his primary, will face Phyllis Young (D) , who defeated nobody in the primary with 1,172 votes. Young is seeking her eighth term, yes eighth. Those 7th ward folks love the status quo! No independent  or Republican candidates filed.
• 9th Ward: Susie Mayberry Parker (G) received 8 votes, defeating nobody in the primary, faces Ken A. Ortmann (D), who also defeated nobody in his primary with 1,015 votes. No independent  or Republican candidates filed.
• 11th Ward: Thomas Albert Villa (D) received 1,182 votes, defeating nobody in the primary and faces nobody in the general. No independent or Republican candidates filed.
• 13th Ward: Fred Wessels (D) received 1,456 votes, defeating nobody in the primary and faces nobody in the general. Like Young, Wessels is seeking an eighth term. No independent or Republican candidates filed.
• 15th Ward: Incumbent Jennifer Florida (D) defeated Lisa Miller (996-607) in the primary. No independent, Green, or Republican candidates filed.
• 17th Ward: Joseph (Joe) Roddy (D) received 1,008 votes, defeating nobody in the primary and faces nobody in the general. No independent, Green, or Republican candidates filed.
• 19th Ward: Marlene E. Davis (D) received 955 votes, defeating nobody in the primary and faces nobody in the general. No independent candidates filed.
• 21st Ward: Antonio D. French (D) defeated primary challenger Kenneth D. Wilson (1,527-378), faces nobody in the general. No independent, Green, or Republican candidates filed.
• 23rd Ward: Robert J. Crump (R) received 24 votes, defeating nobody in the primary, faces Joseph (Joe) Vaccaro Jr.(D), who also defeated nobody in the primary 2,418 votes. No independent or Green candidates filed.
• 25th Ward: Shane Cohn (D) received 830 votes, defeating nobody in his primary and faces nobody in the general. No independent, Green, or Republican candidates filed.
• 27th Ward: Incumbent Chris Carter (D) defeated Pamela Boyd (1,278-446).  No independent, Green, or Republican candidates filed so Carter will get a full term.
• 6th Ward (special election): Eugene Frison, Jr. (G), who defeated nobody in the primary, will face Christine Ingrassia (D), who received just over half the votes in the primary (1,043 to Jones’ 541 and Witthaus’ 477).  No independent or Republican candidates filed.

It makes zero financial sense to hold a partisan primary and a general election a month later! Decades ago when we had more people, and more candidates, it made some sense. We need to go to nonpartisan elections and to instant-runoff voting, doing so will level the playing field and get more people involved. Of course the incumbents don’t want to do either.

Six candidates have filed for three seats on the school board and a tax issue will be on the April 2nd ballot, will post about these before the election.

— Steve Patterson

Two Events Today: St. Louis Streetcar Open House & Free Screening of ‘ENVISIONING HOME’

1) A public open house to look at the initial plans for a modern St. Louis streetcar line will be held today from 4pm-7pm at the Moto Museum 3441 Olive. This is an open house so you can come anytime to see the materials. More information here and the draft study is here.

2) A free screening of ENVISIONING HOME: The Jean King and Richard Baron Story is tonight:

Two wildly different individuals come together in St. Louis in the tumultuous 1960s and bravely transform the world of public housing–and in the process take on poverty and racism throughout the country.

ENVISIONING HOME is a feature length documentary film exploring the dramatic world of two imaginative leaders, Jean King and Richard Baron, two agents of change in public housing. A remarkable, homegrown leader, Jean King meets Richard Baron, a legal aide-turned-visionary planner and developer during the St. Louis tenant strike in 1968-69. From that moment to the present day, they have together changed the face of inner city life in St. Louis and beyond. By inspiring resident and family empowerment while creating more humane places to live, their work invigorates the lives of residents and builds vibrant neighborhoods and communities from distressed central cities.

Drawing on Richard and Jean’s personal memories along with spontaneous conversations between the two—both in studio and along the streets and inside the homes of these new communities–we see how a dangerous, volatile moment in St. Louis public housing drew these two together into a shared passion for improving the lives of people in distressed and neglected inner city neighborhoods. Along the way, Jean and Richard forcefully remind us that despite stubborn matters of race and poverty, individuals with conviction and vision can make a difference.

Combining Richard’s unique “mixed income” approach that ends the ‘warehousing” of the poor isolated from the rest of the city, with Jean’s powerful vision of “building people for housing”—fostering job creation and better schools, child care and elder care programs in new public housing developments—their vision focuses on building new affordable housing communities grounded in safe, sustainable neighborhoods. What were once volatile, dangerous, crime-ridden areas of distressed central cities, now become an environment for turning peoples’ lives around. ENVISIONING HOME takes us into this new world of safe and productive urban communities in cities across the country (from St. Louis to Pittsburgh, New Orleans, Los Angeles, and San Francisco), where we meet some of the residents and their families who have transformed their lives thanks to more humane and livable neighborhoods and an affirming sense of resident empowerment. 

ENVISIONING HOME is a powerful and revealing exploration into what happens when two people—and all those who have joined forces with them—relentlessly follow their hearts in trying to make a difference.

You can watch the trailer on YouTube and Vimeo. I’ve not seen anything except the trailer so I don’t know if it is worth seeing.

The screening is at 7pm in the Lee Auditorium of the Missouri History Museum. “After the film, King and Baron are joined by filmmaker Daniel Smith, Will Jordan (Executive Director, Metropolitan St. Louis Equal Housing Opportunity Council) and moderator Casey Nolen, KSDK and host of Nine Network’s Stay Tuned” for a panel discussion. Additional information here.

— Steve Patterson