Sunday Poll: What Change In Population Will The 2020 Census Reveal?

March 15, 2015 Featured, Sunday Poll 7 Comments
Please vote in the poll, located in the right sidebar
Please vote in the poll, located in the right sidebar

In 1962 something happened nobody 100 — even 50 — years earlier would’ve predicted:

St. Louis County overtakes St. Louis City in population

The American Statistical Association’s St. Louis Chapter Metropolitan Census Committee listed the population of St. Louis County as 762,000, and the population of St. Louis City at 740,000. For the first time in history, the population of St. Louis County exceeded that of St. Louis City. The recent creation of the Interstate Highway System would drastically change the lives of American cities forever, with St. Louis taking a particularly extreme stance as those with means fled outwards from the center. St. Louis County’s population had begun rising steadily around the turn of the century, but in the post-World War II years, it jumped with shocking speed. From 1950 to 1960, the population of St. Louis County jumped from 406,349 to 703,532. Meanwhile, St. Louis City had experienced its first population loss in history in the 1960 census. Dark days were still ahead… from 1970 – 1980, St. Louis City would lose 27% of its population. (STL250 via Facebook)

The above text isn’t totally correct — the 1940 Census showed a net loss of less than 1%, followed by a 5% increase in 1950. St. Louis County has had losses in only two Census counts: a 90%+ plus in 1880 after the city succeeded and a 1.7% decline in 2010.

Here’s today’s poll question: St. Louis’ 2010 population was 8.3% less than 2000 — the smallest decline since the 1950 peak. What change will the 2020 Census reveal?

The poll, as always, is at the top of the right sidebar on desktops — mobile users can switch to the desktop view at the bottom of their browser.

— Steve Patterson

 

Tax Scams Make Sensational News But Media Fails To Mention Adjusting Withholding To Reduce/Eliminate Refund

March 13, 2015 Crime, Economy, Featured, Media, Taxes Comments Off on Tax Scams Make Sensational News But Media Fails To Mention Adjusting Withholding To Reduce/Eliminate Refund
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I’ve circled the three places on KMOV’s home page where “Tax Cheats” stories appeared

When we watch television (vs Netflix, etc) it’s usually CBS — KMOV 4.1 here — unfortunately their promos on tax scams/cheats seem nonstop. Wednesday morning I checked local news sources for similar reports. KMOV had 3 mentions on their homepage, the others didn’t — but many had stories from this month:

These stories are designed to frighten you into worrying about someone steeling your refund — you go to file and someone else has already filed a return for you — taking your refund.  Meanwhile, commercials for auto dealers talk about using your refund as a down payment — some will even double it.  So a $3,000 refund becomes a $6,000 down payment.

Many get excited by a big refund — the bigger the better. The ideal, however, is little or no refund. Why? If you get a huge refund it means you’ve lent the federal & state governments your money interest-free.  A $7800 refund means you could’ve had another $15 in your pocket every week — $65/month.  I know some people use their refund as a savings plan, if so, put that amount into a savings plan every pay period rather than letting Uncle Sam hold it. In savings it’ll earn interest and should an emergency arise  — like car trouble — you can access your money.

You want your withholding set so you get little to nothing back at tax time. You can use the IRS’s Withholding Calculator to determine how your W-4 should be completed.

If you get a big annual tax refund you are leaving yourself vulnerable to fraud.

— Steve Patterson

 

Downtown’s Papa John’s Pizza To Reopen In Different Parking Garage

After Papa John’s Founder & CEO John Schnatter commented on the Affordable Care Act during the 2012 presidential campaign I stopped patronizing the downtown location — then located just 4 blocks East. My taste buds, waistline, and wallet were grateful.

Pape John's was located at Tucker & Pine until July when it closed for repairs to this parking garage.
Pape John’s was located at Tucker & Pine until July when it closed for repairs to this parking garage.
Workers building out the interior of the new Papa John's 2 blocks South in the Park Pacific garage.
Workers building out the interior of the new Papa John’s 2 blocks South in the Park Pacific garage.

It will be nice seeing a business in these storefronts facing Tucker, the spots facing Pine are occupied. More space remains available facing Tucker & Olive.

Renovation work at the garage where Papa John’s had been located (see Parking Garage Undergoing Time-Consuming Multi-Million Dollar Restoration; Businesses Closed, Jobs Lost) has slowed to be almost nonexistent. Yesterday the security guard told me what I already suspected — there was far more damage than originally thought. The owner isn’t sure how much more they want to put into it but a couple of guys are still around working — but nothing like the crew when the work first started.

How long can the owner keep a garage that’s producing zero income?

— Steve Patterson

 

Readers & Legislators on Daylight Saving Time

March 11, 2015 Politics/Policy 6 Comments

In the Sunday Poll nearly half of you felt Daylight Saving Time (DST) is no longer necessary, but more than half support it or are indifferent. In the news the next day:

Rep. Mike Kelley of Lamar is sponsoring a constitutional amendment that would ask voters whether Missouri should use daylight saving  time all the time. 

Under his measure, Missouri residents would switch to daylight saving time in March 2017 and never turn their clocks back again.  (Missouri House panel considers eliminating daylight saving time)

A voter-approved constitutional amendment? While I’m one of those who is indifferent to DST — I can see the pros & cons:

PROS:

  • Conserves Energy
  • Maximize Natural Daylight
  • Reduces Exposure to Artificial Lighting
  • Lighting Effect on Individual Performance
  • Prevents vitamin D Deficiency
  • Increases Sunlight Effect on Cardiovascular Illnesses
  • Reduces Light Pollution
  • Reduces Traffic Accidents
  • Reduces Rolling Blackout “Load Shedding”
  • Deters Criminal Activity
  • Increases Consumer Spending & Business Benefits
  • Extends Daylight Leisure Time
  • Extends Daylight for Outdoor Work
  • Increases Specifically Halloween “Candy” Sales
  • Benefits Indoor Ecosystems Benefits Travel & Tourism
  • Serves as a Reminder to Change Fire & Smoke Detector Batteries

CONS:

  • Energy Conserving Deemed a Myth
  • Effects Health & Healthcare Devices
  • Effects Psychology
  • Disturbs Sleep Pattern
  • Electronic Malfunctions
  • Criminal Effects on Vulnerable Population
  • Effects Financial Markets
  • Effects Personal & Professional Logistics
  • Effects Farmers’ Morning Productivity
  • Ineffective In Equatorial Regions
  • Increases Road Traffic
  • Effects Commuting Between Time Zones
  • Effects Television Networks
  • Timekeeping Challenges
  • Effective Only During Mass Observance
  • Observance Varies Between Regions
  • Ineffective Daylight Savings Researches & Studies

To read more on the above points click here. The following are the poll results:

Q: Is Daylight Saving Time Still Necessary?

  1. No, daylight saving time is no longer aiding energy conservation. 17 [48.57%]
  2. I’m indifferent. It’s only an hour’s difference. 14 [40%]
  3. Yes, because it’s engrained in our society. 4 [11.43%]

Hopefully in a week or two my brain will have adjusted to DST.

— Steve Patterson

 

Think Before Converting Small Units Into Larger Units

ABOVE: My 3-room flat in Old North at 1422 Sullivan
In March 1991 I moved from the CWE to a 3-room flat in Old North at 1422 Sullivan

The other day I saw an article that caught my attention: Preserving micro units in Norman, Oklahoma: A small infill builder tests a new housing type in a neighborhood next to a university, generating a win for housing diversity.  My first three years as an undergrad at the University of Oklahoma I lived at home and drove 17 miles each way to campus daily. Residential dorms & fraternities weren’t of any interest to me, nor were either affordable.

During my last two years I lived in two different 4-unit buildings. Both were older buildings, the first in poor condition The rents were affordable, they were spacious, and I could live alone.  I was evicted from the first after complaining to the city after the slumlord painted our windows shut. Both have since been razed — the first for a campus parking lot. At the time new apartment complexes were being built on the edge of town — these would require multiple roommates and driving to campus.

In August 1990 I moved to St. Louis, quickly taking an efficiency apartment on Lindell. Six months later I moved to a 3-room flat in Old North, my rent going from $330/mo to $75/mo.My landlady had moved into the building as a child and lived there until her kids convinced her to go to a nursing home. One day I came home from work and the front shutters were removed and workers were painting the 19th century brick dark brown. I moved one block North to a slightly larger 3-room flat, a 2nd floor unit entered from an exterior rear stair.  Both flats were in 4-unit buildings.

These smaller housing units in 4-unit buildings can be good options, especially for the 20-something crowd. Back to the article, a developer intended to convert a 4-unit building into two 3-bedroom units:

I asked Keith about the cost and return comparison for the fourplex versus duplex approaches. He told me that if he had renovated the building into a duplex, like he had planned before talking to me, that he was expecting to get $600/month per bedroom and each unit would have been 3 bedrooms for a total of $3,600 in revenue per month for the two units. He was happy to tell me that he is now renting each of the one-bedroom units for $1,000 each for $4,000 in total monthly revenue. That is an 11% increase in monthly revenue! In this one project Keith has blown the top off of this market and is getting $1,000 per bedroom for these small, well-designed micro units located in a walkable context. We see much of the same happening with other Missing Middle Housing types in walkable neighborhoods across the country.

In order to compare apples to apples, I then asked him about renovation costs of converting to a duplex versus simply renovating the fourplex. Keith said the renovations cost about 20% more, due to having 2 additional kitchens, bathrooms, and HVAC systems, in addition to installing sprinklers that the building code requires on buildings with 3 or more units. It will take Keith several years to make up this cost difference, which makes me even prouder of him for taking this risk. (Better Cities & Towns)

The demand had existed for these type of units but nobody knew it or offered a nice product, everyone just did what everyone else was doing — saying the market only supports larger multi-bedroom units. Despite what many may think, the free market isn’t always up to speed on demand, trends, etc. — it often takes fresh thinking to show the free market other options besides the status quo.

What does this have to do with St. Louis?

Glad you asked! Developers shouldn’t assume our 4/6/8-unit buildings are better off converted into larger units.  The total building revenue might be higher as smaller units while allowing people to not have to get a roommate(s). I’ll be able to hear the author next month at CNU23 — more on this in the coming weeks.

Right now my alma mater is currently dealing with other problems.

— Steve Patterson

 

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