City’s Press Release Contains Misleading Statement on Population

On Wednesday the Mayor’s office issued a press release announcing a press conference.  I attended on Thursday AM and wrote a post about facts & figures.  Here is the press release:

Mayor’s Office     Wed, Apr 18, 2007
St. Louis City Population Grows for Fourth Consecutive Year Official Census Bureau Estimate at 353,837
Mayor Francis G. Slay will join Rollin Stanley, City Planner & Urban Designer on Thursday, April 19, 2007, at 10:30 a.m. to announce the results of the latest U.S. Census Bureau estimate of population.

After five decades of non-stop decline, the population in the City has increased by nearly 18,000 in the last four years.

The announcement will be in the Mayor’s office, Room 200.

WHO:    Mayor Francis G. Slay Rollin Stanley, City Planner & Urban Designer

WHAT:    City Population Grows for Fourth Consecutive Year

WHERE:    St. Louis City Hall Room 200

WHEN:    Thursday, April 19, 2007 10:30 a.m.

# # #

But one sentence above gives a totally false impression of the true picture:

After five decades of non-stop decline, the population in the City has increased by nearly 18,000 in the last four years.

Wrong!  The population has not increased by 18,000. The misleading information above is from the city’s official press release but the mayor’s campaign site, mayorslay.com, got it right:

The U.S. Census Bureau, which annually estimates cities’ populations, has agreed that our population for July, 2006, was 353,837, an increase from the previous July. This marks the fourth straight year our population has gone up.

It has not been a dramatic jump, about 6,000 people since the last Census, but it has been a steady one.

Yes, the actual rise in population since the 2000 Census has been 5,648, less than a third of what the press release from the mayor’s office is reporting.

In the Mayor’s announcement on Thursday he actually repeated the 18,000 figure.  Mayor Slay said:

“Compared to the 2002 estimate the city’s population has grown by almost 18,000 people.”

Again, this is misleading at best.  So where’d they get this “almost 18,000” figure?  Well, they are comparing the Census’ original 2002 estimate (336,253) and saying compared to the newly accepted figure the difference is almost 18,000 higher (17,584).   This is playing with numbers and twisting the truth around.

For this to be true, we must accept that between the 2000 Census figure of 348,189 and 2002 that we lost 11,936 and then gained back 11,783 in a single year (2002 to 2003) to reach the revised census figure for 2003 of 348,039.  I think we can all reason that we did not gain nearly 12,000 residents in the 12 months between July 1, 2002 and July 1, 2003.

So the Mayor’s staff is comparing original low estimates with higher revised estimates to create the illusion of “almost 18,000” in new residents.  Luckily, I didn’t find that any of the news agencies went with this misleading figure.  I expect better of our city’s higest leader and his staff.

St. Louis Population: Census History, Estimates, Challenges and Projections

St. Louis, like most “rust belt” cities, experienced significant popuation loss during the later half of the 20th Century. Yes, old news but here is a recap:

In the 1950s St. Louis lost 106,770 people (12.5%), in the 60s that figure was up to 130,757 (17.4%), and in the 70s it continued to clime to 166,465 (26.9%). By the 80s we saw the losses slow to 56,119 for the decade (12.4%). In the 1990s the rate of decline dropped again, this time to 48,496 — the lowest decline in a decade, but still a major decline (12.2%). Added up we lost almost 60 percent of our population.

Nearly everyone we will agree the city is no longer hemorrhaging population as we had during the previous five decades. Today Mayor Slay and Planning Director Rollin Stanley announced the U.S. Census Bureau had once again partially accepted the city’s challenge to official 2006 population estimates. The Census had estimated a population of 347,181 while the city argued for 354,943. The final number per the Census for July 1, 2006 is 353,837.

Compared to the 2000 Census population of 348,189 we show a total net population gain of 5,648 in a six-year period. While an average annual gain of 941 people is not substantial it is certainly cause to celebrate compared to losing anywhere from 4,850 to 16,647 people per year (avg.) as in prior decades. Still, this represents a gain of only 1.6% since 2000 so I wouldn’t really call that gaining — more like treading water. When we have double digit gains in a decade then I think we can proclaim we are indeed increasing our population.

Census figures show a 1,175 drop in population from 350,214 in 2002 to 349,039 in 2003. The city’s figures, shown at today’s press conference, show our population lower than the census figures for 2001 & 2002 (347,954 & 347,252, respectively).  UPDATE @ 3:15pm – Director of Planning Rollin Stanley just returned my call from earlier with a clarification on why the census figures for 2001 & 2002 don’t match that of the city.  As the city had challenged 2003-06 figures the newly revised are etched in stone but the Census continues to make slight adjustments in those numbers which were unchallenged by the city (2001-02).  Regardless of the differences, the city & census seem to agree we continued to loose population very slowly between 2000 and 2003 for a net loss of 150 people.  Thus, our gains are only very recently. For 2006 we show an increase of 1,265 but in 2005 the increase was 1,867 and a large 2,666 in 2004. Each increase is a fraction of one percent of our population.

So while the census and the Mayor annually hug and come to agreement something is still not right with population figures: projections on future population from the East-West Gateway Council of Governments. Their most recent figures, from the Legacy 2030 Transporation Plan (adopted March 2005), shows St. Louis continuing to decline through 2010 before making a slow climb by 2030 to a figure lower than today:

This is not exactly a rosey picture. The 2000 figures shown above are from the 2000 Census, the balance are projections. We will know in a few years after the 2010 Census how accurate the projections, published in 2005, really were. I confirmed with East-West Gateway these are the most recent public projections they have released. A spokesperson indicated they are in the process of revising their projections and was uncertain what decisions, if any, were based on these figures from their Legacy 2030 Transportation Plan.

I put together the above chart to see the differences between the 2005 estimated projection by E-W Gateway and the Census estimates for the same year. Most were close but three stand out: St. Louis City, St. Louis County and St. Charles County. E-W Gateway under-estimated the populations of both St. Charles County (4.6%) and St. Louis City (7.4%) while over-estimating St. Louis County (a minor 1.6%). Clearly, the population is moving around differently than E-W Gateway had anticipated in just the first five years of their transporation plan, much less the remaining 25 years.

Success of SLU Arena Depends Upon Coachless Basketball Team

Today Saint Louis University fired head coach Brad Soderberg. SLU’s review of the team and lack of qualifiying for a tournament cost Soderberg the head coach job he has held for the last five years. But the disturbing part is how this relates to their new costly arena project, here is from a SLU statement:

Because the success of the new Chaifetz Arena is largely contingent on the success of the men’s basketball team, it is imperative that the team be led by a coach who we believe can establish a program that consistently vies for conference championships and engages in postseason play.

Wait a minute! SLU is building an $80 million dollar arena, just a couple of miles from the Scottrade Center downtown, with the success hinging on the men’s basketball team? Furthermore, at least $8 million in public subsidies in the form of TIF Financing (Tax Increment Financing) is going into this project resting in the hands of the team and an as yet to be hired new head coach. Well, I’m confident our “leaders” made the right decision.

Oh boy, has anybody told the bond holders on this project the old coach was fired because the team isn’t good enough to make the arena a success? That is kinda like all of SLU’s largely vacant parking garages — the success of them depends upon students, faculty and staff paying huge fees for parking passes. Ever wonder why SLU doesn’t support transit passes the way Washington University does? Follow the money, or debt in this case.

Mark my words folks, we’ve got another St. Louis boondoggle in the making!

April 17, 2007 – SLU Statement on Soderberg
February 19, 2007 – Urban Review Post on Legal Issues on TIF Financing
August 28, 2006 – SLU Press Release on Arena Ground Breaking

DPZ To Hold Charette in Dardenne Prairie, MO

Dardenne Prairie, a largely bedroom suburb of St. Louis located in fast growing St. Charles County, is about to hold a week-long design charette with leading New Urbanist firm DPZ of Miami. Bringing DPZ to Dardenne Prairie has been a long effort of Mayor Pam Fogarty and 1st Ward Alderman Scott Kolbe, both seeking to create a sense of place in their community.

Dardenne Prairie originally designated 85 acres for a downtown. Ald. Kolbe on the initial stages:

“While we tested the waters – overall feedback has led to us creating a 285 acre site – I was pleasantly surprised by community feedback”

Ald. Kolbe continues on the feedback from residents, “They are craving that third place.”

The entire week is open to the public, the city has posted a schedule online here. Andres Duany, DPZ’s celebrity boss is not scheduled on the charette but will likely make an appearance at some point during the week.
Scheduled Presentations:

• Opening Presentation on Thursday 4/19/2007; 7pm-9pm
• “Pin-up” Review on Sunday 4/22/2007; 2pm-4pm
• Final Presentation on Wednesday 4/25/2007; 7pm-9pm

Again, the charette is open to the public from 4/19 – 4/25. Except for some tours to be held on the first day (4/18), the event will be held at the Knights of Columbus Hall located at 2199 Post Road, Dardenne Prairie, 63368 (see map).

So what do you think?  I personally love the idea of these residents (population estimate 7,000) creating a sense of place for themselves centered on a mixed-use downtown.  This has the potential to become an interesting and livable area.

Zoning Error Puts Collinsville IL in Middle of Dispute

Mistakes happen, but they are often costly. The City of Collinsville IL (St. Louis Metro East) is realizing as much. From the Belleville News-Democrat:

The city is facing threats of lawsuits from a new business and from its potential neighbors thanks to an error in a zoning map.

According to City Manager Bob Knabel, the developer sought zoning information about 102 Gaylord Drive before buying it, and was told that it was commercial. The developer later was issued a building permit.

The problem: The zoning map was in error, and the building was in a residential zone.

Now the residents of Gaylord Drive are asking the City Council to stop the construction of a beauty salon in the middle of their residential street.

Oh, not good. No matter which way the city goes they will have a lawsuit on their hands. But the above description of the “middle of their residential street” is not really accurate.

Per Google Maps (and Mapquest) the site in question is on a corner of Gaylord Drive (small street to the left) and a larger arterial street, Vandalia (diagonal upper right to bottom left). As you can see, Vandalia St is lined with suburban commercial establishments in both directions. Residential housing, such as those on Gaylord, also abut Vandalia while some even front on this street. Quite the delima.

The first question I have is if the developer, if they knew it was residentially zoned, could have pursueded the city to rezone the property before purchasing the land? That is, could they have taken out an option and tried to rezone to commercial. Neighbors would have objected but if Collinsville is anything like the rest of the region they would have jumped at the chance to increase their tax base with more commercial property.

The bigger issue is that Vandalia St looks like a hodge podge of pure vanilla suburban development — zero thought as to creating a cohesive streetscape. No wonder the residents object to the end of their street potentially contributing to this nothingness. Vandalia St. is a typical 4-lane arterial with a center turn lane and generic buildings on each side. Both the residential areas and Vandalia St. lack sidewalks so nobody sees the point in walking down the block to one of the nearby establishments.

The developer will likely prevail in court regardless of which side the city takes.