Poll: What Will St. Louis’ Population Be In The 2010 Census?

The 1940 Census showed a loss of population in the City of St. Louis for the first time in it’s history, a drop from the 1930 Census.  The 1947 Comprehensive Plan ignored this loss and predicted continued growth, albeit slower than in prior decades:

The City of St. Louis can anticipate a population of 900,000 persons by 1970, based on these assumptions:

1. That the population of the St. Louis Metropolitan District continues to maintain its present proportion to total urban population of the United States.
2. That an attractive environment for living will be developed throughout the city to counteract current decentralization trends.
3. That the city is, nevertheless, a maturing urban center that can never expect to attain the tremendous past growth of certain earlier periods.

Planner Harland Bartholomew clearly made the wrong assumptions but, as many know, the 1950 Census was showed a population increase — the peak.  Each subsequent Census since has shown a drop in population.  The biggest drop was in 1980 when the population dropped more than 27% from 1970.

Each year between the decennial Census an estimate of population is produced. In recent years St. Louis successfully challenged the estimated figures. The 2009 estimate showed a population of 356,587, a slight but important increase over the 2000 Census figure of 348,189.  The poll is located in the upper right of the blog, it will be there until the morning of Sunday January 16, 2011.  But here is the question and provided answers:

Q: The 2000 Census had St. Louis’ population at 348,189, the 2009 estimate at 356,587. Where will the 2010 count be?

• Less than 348,198
• Between 348,189 and 356,587
• More than 356,587
• who knows, will just have to wait for the results

As always, you can provide your own answer if you don’t like the ones provided. Results will be published on Wednesday 19, 2011.

– Steve Patterson

Poll: What Issues Would You Like The Board of Aldermen To Address In 2011?

There is still some time left in the current session of the Board of Aldermen ends, the last meeting before the Spring break is Thursday February 10, 2011.  A new session begins in April 2011.

My poll question this week asks: “What are three issues you’d like the St. Louis Board of Aldermen to address in 2011?”

The answers are numerous but you have have additional ideas, pick up to three.  The poll is in the upper right of the blog.

– Steve Patterson

Some Expectations For 2011

Wow, 2011 already?  In my 20+ years in St. Louis I’ve seen a lot of good &  bad change, I suspect both will continue. Hopefully the good will outnumber the bad.

This year the city, like the states, faces the issue of redistricting. A decade ago it got ugly! St. Louis made the national news when 20th ward Ald Irene Smith allegedly urinated into a trash can rather than cease a filibuster on redistricting.

“Twas the whiz heard ’round the globe as Ald. Irene Smith apparently decided she’d rather fill a bucket than give up a filibuster. Shielded by aldermanic allies, the alderwoman-with-‘tude — a former city judge, mind you — allegedly peed in a garbage can after she was refused a potty break during a rigorous redistricting debate.” (RFT)

Click here to see video from that meeting.

Missouri & Illinois will each lose one seat in the US House of Representatives, but the total remains at 435. In the city the total remains, for now, at a staggering 28 – the same number as when the city had half a million more residents.

So for the city the issue becomes how to draw the new ward boundary lines with an equal number of constituents. Will the changes in population result in fewer predominantly white wards? Fewer black wards? Will the lines be drawn so that we might see an Asian or Hispanic ward so that our representatives better reflect our population numbers?

And just what will our population be? Will this be the first decennial census in decades that we’ve not lost population?  Did St. Louis County lose population?

In a few days the filing will close for the spring 2011 elections, half of the Board of Aldermen (even numbered wards) as well as the President of the Board.

In April voters will decide if we continue to collect the earnings tax on the wages of residents as well as those who work in the city.

We should expect to see some construction start on the first phase of Ballpark Village. Who knows what year we will see the rest of the site completed, hopefully before the Cardinals want to replace the 2006 stadium.

The opera house formerly known as Kiel will reopen this year as the Peabody.

The clock is ticking on the Rams lease for the dome, expect some maneuvers in 2011 that will hint at if the Rams will exercise their option to get out of the lease if the done is not in the top quarter of the NFL. It won’t be. I think they will get out of the lease in 2012 but stay put because options for an other facility are slim. California can’t afford to bankroll a new stadium to get the Rams to return to Los Angeles.  The real action will be in 2012 though.

Some long-established businesses will fold in 2011, no doubt blaming the new smoke-free law that starts tomorrow. There are some places I look forward to visiting again but others that I think will need a few months to air out.  I’ve already visited some formerly smoking places that decided to get a head start by going smoke-free in 2010.  I still haven’t decided how much effort I’m going to put into making complaints against establishments that deliberately don’t comply.

I don’t expect to see a lot of new construction to review.  This is probably a good thing as most new construction is so horribly anti-pedestrian.

Overall I’m far more optimistic than pessimistic about 2011. Are you?

– Steve Patterson

2010 Highlights

What a year 2010 has been! I started the year with a list of Regional goals/strategies.  Only one came to be — the April passage of the transit tax in St. Louis County.  That vote triggered a previously approved tax in the city.  Metro has restored & improved transit service, keeping the region mobile.

We saw the Obama Administration announce high speed rail with improvements from St. Louis to Kansas City and to Chicago.  It will be some time before this pays off but when it does St. Louis will benefit.

The City to River concept of a tree-lined boulevard replace 1.5 miles of soon to be former I-70 gained momentum, including acknowledgment from all five finalists in the City + Arch + River Competition.

We did see some construction projects get completed in 2010, such as the offices of Paradowski Creative at 20th & Locust.  The St. Louis Centre bridges over Washington Ave & Locust were removed and the former indoor mall is being turned inside out with retail facing the sidewalks on all four sides.

Just down the street, the long-annoying taxi stand on the sidewalk in front of the convention center has been relocated to 8th Street.

Work has started on the adaptive reuse of the Clemens Mansion on Cass.  Other small projects have been completed or started in the city.

The St. Louis Rams were sold and the team seems to be trying to impress their new owner.  All in all, not a bad year.

On a personal note, August 2010 marked 20 years of living in St. Louis, in 2013 I will have lived half my life here.  To the natives, it doesn’t matter.  I wasn’t born here, I can’t stand St. Louis-style pizza, and I didn’t go to high school here. For me, St. Louis is home.

Celebrate safely tonight.

– Steve Patterson

Happy Holidays!

No matter what your beliefs are, I hope you are not home alone today.

httpv://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CK2Btk6Ybm0

Best wishes!

– Steve Patterson