Future Mainstream Automotive Tech, Poll Results

The first hybrid sold in America? If you said the Toyota Prius you’d be be wrong. Seven months before the Prius went on sale in the US, Honda introduced the 2-seat 3-door 3-cylinder Insight hybrid in December 1999.

For perspective, in 1999 GM produced 457 of the second generation EV1s. In 2000 Toyota brought the first generation Prius to America, a compact 4-door sedan. Hybrids were a niche product.

The documentary Who Killed the Electric Car was shown at the Sundance Film Festival in January 2006. However, by 2011:

The price premium for a hybrid compared to a similar conventional car is getting whittled down, in some cases to almost nothing–making fuel efficiency and low emissions increasingly a no-compromise affair. New affordable hybrid sedans, and the wider selection of a hybrid system as an option in a mainstream vehicle, are expected to at least double hybrid market share in the next five years, from about 2.5 percent in 2011 to 15 percent or higher in the next 10 to 15 years. That means millions of new hybrids on the road and a growing number of choices for consumers. (Hybrid Cars Go Mainstream)

The 2015 Lincoln MKZ Hybrid has the starting same price as the conventional model, $35,190. Hybrids, though not the majority, are now mainstream. Auto manufacturers use hybrid models to meet increasingly tough CAFE standards. Plug-in hybrids & electrics haven’t reached this level —  yet.  Which brings us to the results from last week’s poll:

Q: Which of the following, if any, will be mainstream within 20 years (pick up to 4)

1. Electric vehicles 49 [34.51%]
2. Plug-in hybrid vehicles 36 [25.35%]
3. Self-driving vehicles 26 [18.31%]
4. Fuel cell vehicles 18 [12.68%]
5. None within 20 years 7 [4.93%]
6. Unsure/no opinion 6 [4.23%]

I find the answers a bit confusing, more people think electrics will become mainstream than plug-in hybrids. The plug-in hybrid is often the stepping stone between a hybrid and full electrics — both for manufacturers and consumers. In the last 15 years hybrid/electric tech has come a long way, reflected in sales:

Sales of all electrified cars totaled 408,516 vehicles between January and August, down just a tick from the 408,694 vehicles sold during the same period last year.

Of that total, the bigger percentage gain came in plug-in hybrids, which grew from 28,241 vehicles sold to 40,748. Battery-powered EVs — with no gas engine at all — also grew, from 29,917 vehicles sold to 40,349.

But traditional hybrid sales fell from 350,530 vehicles from January to August last year to 327,418 during the same period in 2014.

The market share for electrified vehicles also fell. So far this year, they account for 3.66% of all vehicles sold, down from 3.84% for the same period a year ago. (Electrified car sales stall as buyers back away from hybrids)

As sales increase pieces will decrease, cheaper batteries will drive more sales:

The Gigafactory’s purpose is to streamline production of battery packs and bring down their cost, and subsequently the cost of electric cars. Tesla CEO Elon Musk has said the plant will be vital to the success of the Model 3, the brand’s upcoming lower-priced EV sedan. The Tesla Model S and Model X SUV, due later this year, will also benefit from the Gigafactory eventually, as the plant is expected to cut battery pack costs by at least 30 percent. (Tesla Chooses Nevada as Site for Gigafactory)

Ok, so Tesla will sell a less expensive model. What about the mass market?

Toyota and Tesla have been working together to produce battery packs and motors for the electrified RAV4 EV, but with the program soon coming to a close, the automakers are revealing they’re not ready to go their separate ways. The Japanese automaker has been vocal about wanting to continue working with the electric car company, while Tesla CEO Elon Musk recently revealed he’d like to see the same thing. (Musk: Tesla, Toyota Could Join Forces Again in Next Few Years)

Hard to say where we’ll be with plug-in hybrids & electric vehicles 20 years from now, but I think both will be mainstream within 15 years. Self-driving cars and fuel cell vehicles? I’m still not convinced. Here too we’re seeing repaid adoption:

The age of the self-driving car may soon be upon us. General Motors CEO Mary Barra revealed that we’ll start seeing semi-autonomous technologies in certain Cadillac models in as little as two years. (GM Semi-Autonomous Tech to Debut on All-New 2017 Cadillac Model)

Also see Entire Toyota Lineup to Feature Pre-Collision Tech by 2017.

Fuel cell vehicles are electric cars that generate electricity on-board rather than through the grid, solar, etc. Of the four I think fuel cells have the least chance of becoming mainstream in 20 years.None of us knows for sure, we’ll just have to revisit this issue in the future.

— Steve Patterson

St. Louis Union Station Opened 120 Years Ago Today

The labor of many built the building that opened 120 tears ago today: St. Louis Union Station. This 1894 station replaced the original St. Louis Union Station, which was located six blocks east, at 12th & Poplar. The original had opened 19 years earlier, on June 1, 1875

After millions passed through this station over 80+ years it closed. In ruins it was the location of the fight scene from Escape from New York (1981).  Last Friday, August 29th, marked 29 years since Union Station reopened as a festival marketplace. Basically a mall under the train shed. New owner are replacing the failed mall with convention/meeting space to support the hotel. See StLouisUnionStation.com for more information.

Happy Labor Day!

— Steve Patterson

Poll: Which Vehicle Technology Will Become Mainstream Within Two Decades?

Toyota first began selling the Prius hybrid in Japan in December 1997 — nearly 20 years ago. This form of hybrid is now mainstream, cars from many manufacturers offer some form of hybrid. In all these an internal combustion engine (ICE) comes on the drive the wheels, as needed. Batteries are recharged primarily through regenerative braking. Millions of such hybrid vehicles have been sold worldwide.

What’s next?

Below are four technologies that might become mainstream in the next two decades, listed alphabetically:

• Electric vehicles (plugs into grid, no ICE)
• Fuel cell vehicles (uses oxygen & hydrogen to generate electricity used to power electric motors)
• Plug-in hybrid vehicles (plugs into grid, ICE charges batteries to extend range)
• Self-driving vehicles (the autonomous self-driving vehicle wouldn’t need input from a human)

For the poll this week I want to see which of the above, if any, will become mainstream within 20 years. The poll includes those four plus options for ‘none’ and ‘unsure’, all will be presented randomly. The poll is at the top of the right sidebar, you can select up to four answers.

— Steve Patterson

Aviator Charles Lindbergh Died 40 Years Ago Today

U.S. Route 67 runs north-south from the Mexico border in Texas into Iowa after passing through Arkansas, Missouri, and Illinois. In St. Louis County U.S.67 is better known as Lindbergh Boulevard, named after famed aviator Charles Lindbergh (February 4, 1902 – August 26, 1974):

One of the finest fliers of his time, Charles Lindbergh was the chief pilot for the first St. Louis to Chicago airmail route, in April 1926. While based at Lambert Field, he conceived of an airplane that could fly from New York to Paris, and persuaded a group of St. Louis businessmen to finance the project. The result was the immortal “Spirit of St. Louis,” which he flew across the Atlantic on May 20-21, 1927. The feat made Lindbergh a national hero, and raised public awareness of aviation’s potential to an unprecedented level. (St. Louis Walk of Fame)

Lindbergh was born in Detroit and died in Maui, Hawaii at age 72:

Lindbergh didn’t live here long:

March 1924 – Lindbergh enlists in the Army Air Service and begins training. He graduates, first in his class, from the Army’s Advanced Flying School and is commissioned as a second lieutenant. At loose ends because few squadrons need new pilots, he decides to head for St. Louis, where he begins working as a test pilot, barnstormer, stunt flyer and mail pilot.

Fall 1926 – Bored with mail flying, Lindbergh dreams of capturing the $25,000 Orteig Prize that will be given to the first aviator to fly nonstop between New York and Paris. He starts searching for the financial backers necessary to sponsor his flight. Time is of the essence because several other teams of pilots in the U.S. and France, including U.S. Navy Commander Richard Byrd, are preparing their own transatlantic flights.

April 1927 – Construction on Lindbergh’s plane, built by the Ryan Aeronautical Company in San Diego, is completed, and Lindbergh conducts a series of test flights.

May 12, 1927 – Lindbergh arrives in New York. He had crossed the entire country in less than twenty-two hours of flying time. The media takes a shine to Lindbergh, not only because he is physically the most attractive of all the fliers attempting the New York/Paris flight but because he is the only one attempting the journey on his own.

May 20, 1927 – At 7:54 am, Lindbergh, who has not slept in almost twenty-four hours, takes off from Long Island’s Roosevelt Field.

May 21, 1927 – At 10:54 pm, Lindbergh lands at Le Bourget airfield near Paris. A human tidal wave of spectators, 150,000 strong, is there to greet him and Lindbergh is quickly caught up in the riptide of the masses. Overnight, the modern wonders of communication transform the 25-year “boy” into the most famous man on earth. (Lindbergh Foundation)

Lindbergh needed financial backing to buy the plane he needed for the attempt, it came from St. Louis businessmen:

He had $2,000 in savings, and he figured he’d need an additional $15,000.

The first to pony up was Maj. Albert Bond Lambert (note the last name), an enthusiastic balloonist and the city’s first licensed pilot. The others were banker Harold M. Bixby, head of the St. Louis Chamber of Commerce; broker Harry H. Knight and his father, Harry F. Knight; aircraft execs Frank and William Robertson; Earl C. Thompson; J.D. Wooster Lambert; and St. Louis Globe-Democrat publisher E. Lansing Ray.

Bixby suggested that Lindbergh name the plane the Spirit of St. Louis. Today Bixby’s nephew, Charles Houghton, says his Uncle Harold had more in mind than honoring his own city. “What most people don’t know is that the patron saint of Paris was Louis IX, Saint-Louis,” Bixby says, “so the French were just thrilled when this plane arrived. Besides honoring the backers and the community, there was that wonderful connection to the French people.” (St. Louis Magazine)

I wasn’t able to find out where Charles Lindbergh lived during his couple of years living in St. Louis prior to the famous flight, perhaps someone out there knows. Charles A. Lindbergh was born on

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Braille Bus Stop Signs Shouldn’t Face The Street

For nearly a decade this blog has been about my observations, even if some think they’re trivial.  Monday & Tuesday I noticed something I’d never seen before, braille signs to mark bus stops.

Out of curiosity I turned to the web to learn more. I found the following on a site administered by Easter Seals, Inc., but funded by the U.S. Department of Transportation & Federal Transit Administration:

Question: Is braille required on bus stop signs?

Answer:

For bus stops, there is no requirement for braille. However, if braille is provided, then the information must meet certain standards.
The braille information should be placed uniformly on the bus stop pole, and not on the traffic side. Always ensure that braille dots are raised to the touch. If possible, have a person who reads braille confirm that it is the correct label. Materials for braille include embossed labels, polymer, chemically welded raster beads, cast metal and stamped metal. Costs vary depending on the process and materials.

Placement and orientation of braille is important and should be placed below any corresponding text. Braille signs should be mounted and installed in the correct location. For details on signage, see Chapter 7, Communication Elements and Features in the 2010 ADA Standards.

http://www.ada.gov/regs2010/2010ADAStandards/2010ADAstandards.htm#c7

Other accessibility considerations include providing bus stop sign poles that are stylized with tactile features to distinguish them from other poles for customers with visual impairments. For example, some transit systems have selected a square pole that uniquely identifies the stop from traffic sign posts. It is important to consider tactile raised letter information with the braille information as many people who are blind or have low vision are not braille readers. (Project ACTION)

The 2nd sign shown above, with the rose, is facing the street. Metro’s signs are often installed toward the street, not toward the pedestrian on the sidewalk. The visually impaired want to be independent like anyone else, the least we can do is think where they’d walk to read a braille sign.

— Steve Patterson