Readers: City Better Than A Decade Ago

ABOVE: A decade ago you wouldn't have seen parents lounging downtown with their infants

In the poll last week readers could pick up to three answers, the top answer shows many felt the city has gotten better in the last decade, despite a loss in population.

Q:Reaction to the 2010 Census showing a loss of 29k residents? (pick up to 3 answers)

1. Fewer residents but the quality of the city has improved in the last decade 111 [33.74%]
2. Previous estimates showing a slight increase gave me false hope 67 [20.36%]
3. Very disappointing 61 [18.54%]
4. Happy the losses are getting smaller each decade 26 [7.9%]
5. Partly the outcome of low density housing policy 22 [6.69%]
6. The numbers must be wrong 16 [4.86%]
7. Surprised the loss wasn’t greater 13 [3.95%]
8. Other answer… 11 [3.34%]
9. No opinion 2 [0.61%]

The “other” answers were:

1. St Louis to Jennings
2. Our schools need to be improved if we are ever going to retain our population
3. i am very curious to know how the ave resident/house and income/house changed
4. so many people were not counted.
5. many people didn’t bother to send in cenus forms
6. The numbers Might be wrong
7. Note we gained amongst 18 , MUST fix schools
8. My pride is hurt, but as long development doesn’t slow; it’ll heal.
9. Obviously better with fewer low income African Americans
10. Mixture of some areas (n. St. Louis) and emptyin and fewer large families.

Much work remains but for me the total number of residents is less important than the quality of life of those of us who didn’t leave.

- Steve Patterson

The City Is Better Today Than In 1990

I was just 23 when I moved to St. Louis in August 1990.  At that point the 1990 Census had been completed, but the numbers weren’t yet revealed.  Thus, the last population number for St. Louis at the time I moved here was 452,801 (1980).  I was moving from a city with fewer people to a bigger city, Oklahoma City had 404,014 residents in 1980.  Oklahoma City also has ten times the land area of St. Louis so the urban density was and  is far far less.  But I didn’t live here during the decade of 450k+ residents.

As I was moving from the Central West End to Old North St. Louis (then known as Murphy-Blair) in March 1991 the new population figure was released: 396,685, a loss of 56,116.  That seemed like nothing compared to the loss of 169,435 between 1970-1980. We had just dipped below 400,000, the first time we’d fallen to levels not seen since the 19th century.

In 2001 the 2000 Census showed another loss, this time 48,496 fewer residents.  Each time the Census figures came out I considered bailing, jumping off the sinking ship.  This time is different, leaving is the last thing on my mind.  More than ever I want to stay and fight so the 2020 Census shows a gain rather than a loss.

ABOVE: St. Louis population change 1870-2010

The growth of St. Louis slowed in the 1920s and the the city lost a little population in the 30s.  The shift to newer housing was well under way when the post-WWII boom coupled caused housing shortages and gave St. Louis the false impression the 1940 drop was a fluke.

Harland Bartholomew’s destructive vision to remake the city. From the 1947 plan:

The City of St. Louis can anticipate a population of 900,000 persons by 1970, based on these assumptions:

1. That the population of the St. Louis Metropolitan District continues to maintain its present proportion to total urban population of the United States.
2. That an attractive environment for living will be developed throughout the city to counteract current decentralization trends.
3. That the city is, nevertheless, a maturing urban center that can never expect to attain the tremendous past growth of certain earlier periods.

The #2 item above meant urban renewal.  Erasing the old walkable city and building back an auto-friendly city. Tens of thousands were forced from their homes for highway construction and housing projects like Pruitt-Igoe.

Today our loses are for different reasons: an ingrained anti-city bias and a dysfunctional public school system. I think we can fix these issues.

The 2020 Census may show another loss which is fine if the city continues to get better as it has these last 20 years.

- Steve Patterson

Poll: Reaction to the 2010 Census showing a loss of 29k residents?

The realization that St. Louis continued to lose population between 2000-2010 is on everyone’s mind.  What better topic for a weekly poll?  The poll is in the upper right corner of the site.

Here is some info you may or may not have seen:

Source: City of St. Louis

Only four of the 28 wards showed an increase in residents: 5,6,7, 19.

Wards 5,6,7 & 19 are the only four showing an increase in residents did these four nam

How did these four wards, all grouped in the center, manage to increase population?  Could be this is where the Slay administration focused their attention?  Maybe the core offers the most urban lifestyle?  Or both?

If we look at population changes on a neighborhood basis (3-page PDF) we see the numbers are all over the place. Downtown had a 359% increase, going from 806 to 3701.  Downtown West, where I live, only had a 79% increase, going from 2,204 to 3,940 residents. Yes, Downtown West (West of 14th St?) has more residents than Downtown proper.  McRee Town, on the other hand, had a 43% decline.

I’ll have my thoughts tomorrow.  In the meantime the poll is in the upper right.

- Steve Patterson

Population Loss, Not Gain, For St. Louis

Last month I did a reader poll asking What Will St. Louis’ Population Be In The 2010 Census? The following week the poll results showed  optimism:

Q: The 2000 Census had St. Louis’ population at 348,189, the 2009 estimate at 356,587. Where will the 2010 count be?

1. More than 356,587: 82 [ 58.57%]
2. Between 348,189 and 356,587: 36 [25.71%]
3. Less than 348,198: 13 [9.29%]
4. who knows, will just have to wait for the results 7 [5%]
5. Other answer… 2 [1.43%]

I was in the #2 camp, thinking we had held steady.  Wrong!

The city of St. Louis lost nearly 29,000 people during the past decade, a decline of about 8 percent of its population. (Census: St. Louis Population down 8 Percent)

On the plus side, an 8% decline is less than 2000 (12.2%) 1990 (12.4%) and way less than 1980 (27.2%).  Still stings though.

As the numbers get examined in the coming weeks, months and years I think we will see much of the population loss occurred in the poorer tracts.  Past loses eroded the middle class – both black & white.  The 2010 Census didn’t collect economic data such as household income so analysis will be difficult.

ABOVE: St. Louis City Hall

We all need to remember the good things we have going on, the numerous walkable commercial districts, the renovated architecture, etc.  That didn’t change yesterday.  I love this city no less today than I did a week ago.

The population loss does affirm my belief that we need major restructuring at City Hall. Every employee, elected official, department, process needs to be evaluated. I don’t want to change the city charter, I want to replace it — start from scratch. We must do something different or in ten years I’ll be saying a 6% loss isn’t as bad.

- Steve Patterson

Did St. Louis Attract Young Whites?

St. Louis’ low cost of living excludes us from an emerging trend of the 2010 Census:

“The number of white children is growing in several large urban centers where the cost of living is high, a trend that runs counter to the decline in white youths in much of the USA.” (USA Today: Urban areas drawing young whites)

A demographer quoted in the article says expensive urban settings are “a new magnet for white families with children.” Young white families with children used to be an assumed for new suburban areas but increasingly these families are choosing urban over suburban living.

Census figures are showing population increases for Asian and Hispanics, thus lowering the percentage of whites overall, making the trend that much more remarkable in those cities.  My own anecdotal observations over the last decade shows a similar trend in St. Louis.

The City of St.Louis has much in common with the state, the percentage of persons of Hispanic or Latino origin, for example.  A look at the U.S. Census Quick Facts, however, shows various figures.

One thing is certain, demographers will pour over the 2010 figures for years — until 2021 when the 2020 Census figures are released.

- Steve Patterson

Readers Expect 2010 Census To Show Population Gain Over 2000 Census

Nearly 85% of you felt St. Louis will show a population gain over the 2000 Census figure with most thinking the number will be higher than the 2009 estimate.

Q: The 2000 Census had St. Louis’ population at 348,189, the 2009 estimate at 356,587. Where will the 2010 count be?

1. More than 356,587: 82 [ 58.57%]
2. Between 348,189 and 356,587: 36 [25.71%]
3. Less than 348,198: 13 [9.29%]
4. who knows, will just have to wait for the results 7 [5%]
5. Other answer… 2 [1.43%]

I fall into the #2 camp, I think our number will be between the 2000 count and the 2009 estimate.  Why?  The methodology used for both is very different. Anything above 348,198 will still be huge though.  Nearly 10% of you think we will show a loss, I hope you are wrong!

The “other” answers were:

1. has to be more than 356,587 due to the amount of construction permits issued
2. >375,000

The actual count taken in 2010 has nothing to do with building permits.  In the last 10 years we’ve shifted population around.  Folks are living in places they didn’t in 2000, like downtown, but other areas have emptied out.

- Steve Patterson

Poll: What Will St. Louis’ Population Be In The 2010 Census?

The 1940 Census showed a loss of population in the City of St. Louis for the first time in it’s history, a drop from the 1930 Census.  The 1947 Comprehensive Plan ignored this loss and predicted continued growth, albeit slower than in prior decades:

The City of St. Louis can anticipate a population of 900,000 persons by 1970, based on these assumptions:

1. That the population of the St. Louis Metropolitan District continues to maintain its present proportion to total urban population of the United States.
2. That an attractive environment for living will be developed throughout the city to counteract current decentralization trends.
3. That the city is, nevertheless, a maturing urban center that can never expect to attain the tremendous past growth of certain earlier periods.

Planner Harland Bartholomew clearly made the wrong assumptions but, as many know, the 1950 Census was showed a population increase — the peak.  Each subsequent Census since has shown a drop in population.  The biggest drop was in 1980 when the population dropped more than 27% from 1970.

Each year between the decennial Census an estimate of population is produced. In recent years St. Louis successfully challenged the estimated figures. The 2009 estimate showed a population of 356,587, a slight but important increase over the 2000 Census figure of 348,189.  The poll is located in the upper right of the blog, it will be there until the morning of Sunday January 16, 2011.  But here is the question and provided answers:

Q: The 2000 Census had St. Louis’ population at 348,189, the 2009 estimate at 356,587. Where will the 2010 count be?

• Less than 348,198
• Between 348,189 and 356,587
• More than 356,587
• who knows, will just have to wait for the results

As always, you can provide your own answer if you don’t like the ones provided. Results will be published on Wednesday 19, 2011.

- Steve Patterson

Light posting schedule now through mid-June

Due to my employment with the U.S. Census Bureau I will most likely not be able to maintain the post-per-day schedule that I have had for quite a while now. At this point the only thing I can commit to is a new poll on Sundays and the results of the prior poll on Wednesdays.  As I have posts from contributors I will post those. If I have other posts they may be less involved than usual.

ABOVE: A Census Enumerator follows up on a housing unit where a census form was not returned. Photo Credit: U.S. Census Bureau, Public Information Office

My role will be to train and supervise a crew of Enumerators.   At the conclusion of this temporary job I will resume full daily postings.

- Steve Patterson

Poll results on where readers live

The poll last week was simple and non-controversial but it got the highest vote count out of any poll I’ve done.  Four hundred twenty one of you voted. During the week the site had 2,910 unique visitors so that is nearly a 15% participation rate.  Here is the question and final results:

Q: Where do you currently live?

1. City of St. Louis 226 [54%]
2. St. Louis County (inside I-270) 78 [19%]
3. St. Louis County (outside I-270) 33 [8%]
4. Elsewhere in the United States 32 [8%]
5. Metro East (IL) 16 [4%]
6. St. Charles County, MO 8 [2%]
7. Chicago metro 6 [1%]
8. Kansas City metro 5 [1%]
9. Other answer… 5 [1%]
10. New York City metro 3 [1%]
11. Other Missouri 3 [1%]
12. UK 2 [0%]
13. Jefferson County, MO 2 [0%]
14. Country other than USA, CAN or UK 2 [0%]
15. Canada 0 [0%]

From the above I count 363 (86%) as being part of the St. Louis metro area.  I personally consider the “core” of the region to be the City of St. Louis and the part of St. Louis County inside I-270.  Actually the core is tighter than that but I-270 was a good reference line.  So 304 (72%) are part of the core as I just defined it. These numbers confirmed what I knew from my site statistics.

Weekly poll: Where do you live?

In honor of the start of the 2010 Census, I want to know where you live.  I know quite a bit from my statistics about all readers, but those that take the time to vote each week in the poll (right sidebar) is only a fraction of the total readers for that time period.

The choices provided are:

• City of St. Louis
• St. Louis County (inside I-270)
• St. Louis County (outside I-270)
• St. Charles County, MO
• Jefferson County, MO
• Metro East (IL)
• Kansas City metro
• Other Missouri
• Chicago metro
• New York City metro
• Elsewhere in the United States
• Canada
• UK
• Country other than USA, CAN or UK
• Other:

ABOVE: St. Louis Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA); Source: Wikipedia

The poll is in the right hand column.

- Steve Patterson