Missouri Primary Four Weeks Away on August 2, 2022

Seven states, including Missouri, will hold primary elections on Tuesday August 2, 2022 — just four weeks from today. My goal in this post is to make you aware  of all items on your ballot, not just the high-profile U.S. Senate race.

St. Louis City (election website):

First, with redistricting and ward reduction from 28 to 14 it’s very likely you’re ward and precinct numbers are different than they were on the previous election. I’ve been in the 5th for a decade, now it’s the 14th!

City voters have two propositions on their ballots:

PROPOSITION S
Shall The Board of Education of the City of St. Louis borrow money in the amount of One Hundred Sixty Million Dollars ($160,000,000) for the purpose of acquiring, constructing, renovating, repairing, improving, furnishing and equipping school sites, buildings and related facilities in the District, including but not limited to (1) removing lead paint, fencing and other hazardous materials at affected schools, (2) upgrading mechanical systems to include replacement of outdated or obsolete equipment, temperature controls, and duct cleaning to increase ventilation, (3) upgrading building infrastructure by replacing roofs, tuck-pointing, waterproofing and window replacements, (4) improving security systems to increase student safety by installing fire alarm systems and replacing interior and exterior doors, (5) upgrading technology to modernize classrooms and improve academic performance, (6) improving building conditions by renovating restrooms and other ADA improvements, and (7) increasing learning opportunities by creating outdoor learning spaces and making improvements to playgrounds and athletic fields and facilities, and issue general obligation bonds for the payment thereof?

If this proposition is approved, the adjusted debt service levy of the school district is estimated to remain unchanged at the current rate of $0.6211 per one hundred dollars assessed valuation of real and personal property.

YES – FOR THE PROPOSITION
NO – AGAINST THE PROPOSITION 

And…

PROPOSITION F
Shall Section 24 of Article IV of the City’s Charter be changed to increase the maximum fine for violations of City ordinances regarding preservation and protection of environmental conditions for preventing harm to the health, safety, and comfort of City residents or harm to private or public property such as unauthorized dumping of waste or debris on private or public property, prohibited refuse, waste tire disposal, and the like from $500.00 to $1,000.00?

YES – FOR THE PROPOSITION
NO – AGAINST THE PROPOSITION

The only contested citywide county office in the primary is two candidates running for Recorder of Deeds on the Green Party. Republican, Democratic, and Libertarian ballots all have only one candidate each for Collector of Revenue, License Collector, and Recorder of Deeds.

However, voters in the current 21st ward will also vote to select an alderperson to fill the vacant seat. Four candidates are running: Laura Keys (D), Joann Dyson Williams (I),  Melinda L. Long (I), and Ebony Moore (I). See official list of candidates here.

St. Louis County (election website)

St. Louis County has three propositions on their ballots: A, M, and V  — see the full language linked on the county ballot page, here. You can also enter your address for your specific ballot.

Missouri (Secretary of State election website)

There are no statewide propositions on our August primary ballot, but there will be quite a few on our general election ballot in November.

Elections for the state house and state Auditor are pretty boring, most in the St. Louis area unchallenged. Republican voters will need to select one of two candidates for state auditor.

In Missouri’s first congressional district it’s more interesting. Three republicans want the GOP nomination. On the democratic ballot incumbent Cori Bush has four primary opponents! (Cori has my vote)

The big race in Missouri this year is to fill the U.S. Senate seat held by retiring senator Roy Blunt (R). Anytime you have an open seat with no incumbent a lot of candidates toss their hats into the ring.

The republican ballot has 21 candidates, yes 21! Many of dropped out or been disqualified, but still. Former governor Eric “RINO hunter” Greitens is currently leading in the polls.

The democratic ballot has 11 hopefuls that want to flip the seat from red to blue. I’m actually Facebook friends with one of the 11, but I’m not sure how I’ll vote — I’ve got to decide before my absentee ballot arrives. Lucas Kunce is the most likely democratic nominee.

It’s very likely the Republican and Democratic nominees will face at least one independent challenger in November. One potential outcome is a conservative-minded independent splitting the vote, helping the democratic nominee get elected.

Further reading:

Ballotpedia.org

League of Women Voters of St. Louis

The primary is Tuesday August 2, 2022.

— Steve Patterson

Glad the Illinois Primary is Tuesday, June 28th

I’ve lived in two states my entire life, Illinois isn’t one of them. But as a St. Louis Missouri resident for nearly 32 years I’ve seen plenty of Illinois campaign television advertisements. Of course, Illinois residents in the St. Louis metro area have seen more than their share of Missouri political ads.

The Illinois primary is Tuesday, June 28, 2022.

While there are many races on ballots in Illinois it is ads for two that are the ones we’ve all been seeing. A lot. Governor & 15th congressional district.

Let’s begin with the race for congress, both GOP candidates are incumbents!

U.S. Reps. Rodney Davis and Mary Miller are running in the Republican primary for Illinois’ 15th Congressional District on June 28, 2022. This race is one of six U.S. House incumbent-vs.-incumbent primaries occurring in 2022 as a result of congressional redistricting after the 2020 census. (Ballotpedia)

Illinois lost one seat in congress as a result of population loss in the 2020 census, so two Republican colleagues are now in a bitter campaign against each other. Each is trying to paint themselves as the most pro-Trump and the other as being less conservative than themselves.

The head-to-head contest is an offshoot of new congressional boundaries drawn by state lawmakers in Springfield following the federal census and Illinois’ loss of one of its current 18 U.S. House seats. Miller’s home was narrowly drawn into a district with another Republican, U.S. Rep. Mike Bost of Murphysboro, but she opted instead to challenge Davis. Members of Congress do not have to live in the district they represent. (Chicago Tribune)

The 15th is the most conservative district in Illinois, which means the democratic nominee won’t stand a chance. Either Davis or Miller will be out of office in January 2023, a week from now we should know who will be sworn in again and who will pack up their D.C. apartment.

In the Illinois race for governor the situation is very different. Democrat J. B. Pritzker is seeking a second term, he’ll easily win his primary. Half a dozen Republicans are running to become the GOP nominee to challenge Prizker in November.

Six candidates are running in the Republican primary for governor of Illinois on June 28, 2022. Darren Bailey and Richard Irvin have led the field in fundraising and media coverage.

Bailey is a farmer who serves in the Illinois State Senate. He was first elected to office in 2020. In his campaign ads, Bailey has highlighted his support for reducing taxes and government spending while serving in the state senate, his support for law enforcement, his support for Donald Trump (R), and his opposition to Governor J.B. Pritzker (D). A campaign ad said, “In Springfield, Darren stood up for working families and fought against every single tax increase. When Governor Pritzker tried to close Illinois, Darren sued him and won to keep our state open. Now, Darren is running for governor with a plan to cut our taxes, fund our police, and impose term limits on politicians.”[4]

Irvin is an attorney who has served as mayor of Aurora, Illinois since he was elected in 2017. Irvin’s campaign ads have highlighted his work as a prosecutor and his support for increasing police department budgets, his experience as a veteran, his opposition to J.B. Pritzker, and his economic record as mayor of Aurora. A campaign ad said, “Running our second-largest city, crime’s come down because the police budget has gone up. I hired more cops each year. We’ve recruited new companies […] and we’ve controlled spending, balanced budgets, so residents got property tax relief. My city is now stronger, safer, and full of opportunity. I want that for Illinois.” (Ballotpedia)

I’ve seen ads for only [two] three of the six. Like the 15th congressional district ads, the spots from the top two challengers have been vicious. I’ve also seen a few ads for Paul Schimpf. Nothing from the other three candidates. If Bailey loses either the primary or general he’ll no longer be in public office because his term as state senator ends. However, Irvin was just re-elected to a second term as Aurora’s mayor last year. If he doesn’t become governor he’ll still be mayor.

Past Illinois Democratic governors have been vulnerable at election time, but Prizker appears to be in a better position than his predecessors.

Illinois U.S. Senator Tammy Duckworth is seeking another 6-year term. I’ve not seen a single ad for the seven (7) Republicans on Tuesday’s primary ballot who want to go against her in November.

It’ll just be nice having a break from divisive political ads for a bit, though I know Missouri’s primary is only 5 weeks later, on August 2, 2022.

— Steve Patterson

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Presidential Primary More Important Than General Election For Missouri & Illinois Voters

Based on the recent non-scientific Sunday Poll an overwhelming majority of readers plan to vote in the upcoming presidential primaries.

Q: Agree or disagree: I’m NOT planning to vote in the upcoming presidential primary (either major party).

• Strongly agree: 2 [8%]
• Agree: 0 [0%]
• Somewhat agree: 0 [0%]
• Neither agree or disagree: 1 [4%]
• Somewhat disagree: 0 [0%]
• Disagree: 2 [8%]
• Strongly disagree: 20 [80%]
• Unsure/No Answer: 0 [0%]

Both Missouri & Illinois are open primary states, registered voters get to pick which ballot they want at the polls. Other states, like Oklahoma, are the opposite. In those states voters must register to a party, that’s the ballot they get when voting in a partisan primary. Anyone in Missouri or illinois who claims to be a registered Democrat or Republican is mistaken.

Unlike four years ago, only one major party has a competitive primary this year. We already know in the November general election that Missouri will go red, Illinois will go blue. So voters in these states who want to the Democratic nominee to win need to vote in the primary.

Primary dates:

• Missouri March 10th
• Illinois March 17th

Like 2016, I’m voting for Bernie Sanders. His policy positions are right for the country, and the best alternative to 45.

Voting on all races in the November general election is important, especially House & Senate races.

— Steve Patterson

Sunday Poll: Do You Plan To Vote In The Presidential Primary?

Right now it’s hard to ignore Missouri’s neighbor to the north, Iowa. The Iowa Caucuses are the first in the nation to begin nominating presidential candidates.

The Iowa caucus campaigns are closing in on their final days. Whether you’ll be a first-time caucus participant or you’ve been participating for decades, now’s the time to put your knowledge to the test.

The caucuses gained national notoriety after helping catapult Jimmy Carter to the White House in 1976. This cycle has brought dozens of candidates to the state to win over Iowans. (Des Moines Register)

The Iowa Caucuses will take place on Monday February 3, 2020.  Interestingly, due to a rule change, more than one candidate could claim victory. New Hampshire is next, with a traditional primary, on Tuesday February 11, 2020.

Though President Trump is being nominally challenged for the GOP nomination in most states, this primary season will focus on the still-large field of Democratic candidates. Their focus will soon turn to other states, including Missouri & Illinois.

• Monday 2/3/2020: Iowa caucus
• Tuesday 2/11/2020: New Hampshire primary
• Saturday 2/22/2020: Nevada caucus
• Saturday 2/29/2020: South Carolina primary
• Tuesday 3/3/2020: Super Tuesday with 14 states, American Samoa, and Democrats Abroad
• Tuesday 3/10/2020: Missouri, 4 other states, and Washington D. C.
• Thursday 3/12/2020: Virgin Island caucus
• Tuesday 3/17/2020: Illinois plus three other states.

This continues into early June, see the 270towin primary calendar page here.

The winner(s) of the Iowa caucus will get a bump in polls and media attention, but that’s no guarantee of a victory in November.

Only three politicians have won a contested Iowa caucus and become president — Jimmy Carter, George W. Bush, and Barack Obama. (Business Insider)

Which brings us to today’s poll:

This poll will close at 8pm tonight.

— Steve Patterson

Challengers Unable To Overcome the Power of Incumbency

Tuesday’s partisan primary is over, next up the candidates from all the parties will face off in the April 2nd general election. Oh right, the Democratic primary is THE election. Next month a few of us will vote again, for the school board. If St  louis elected nonpartisan officials we could eliminate one of two low-turnout elections held one month apart.

Only three of the 15 seats on Tuesday were open seats, one was vacant and two incumbents decided not to seek an additional term.

18th Ward:

• Only 17% of registered voters participated in the 5-way race for an open seat.
• Winner Jesse Todd received 38.84% of the vote.
• Ald. Terry Kennedy decided not to run again.

24th Ward:

• 21.2% of those registered voted in the 5-way race.
• Attorney Bret Narayan won a majority of the votes with 55.54% selecting him.
• Former Ald. Tom Bauer came in 2nd with 16.6%. Whew, thankful he didn’t win. Two independent candidates have filed to run in April, a good plan in case Bauer had won the Democratic nomination.
• Ald. Scott Ogilvie didn’t run for re-election.

26th Ward:

• Twenty percent of registered voters cast ballots in this 3-way race.
• Shameem Hubbard, wife of Rodney Hubbard, won with only 36.73% of the votes.
• Ald. Frank Williamson resigned after accepting a job in the Treasurer’s office.

Now for the 12 seats where the incumbent won another term. Note that there were a few incumbents I wanted to see win, more I wanted to lose:

2nd Ward:

• Lisa Middlebrook was re-elected, turnout was 15.9%

4th Ward:

• Sam Moore won another term, voter turnout was 14.9%

6th Ward:

• Christine Ingrassia survived the 4-way race with 44.26%, Debra Carnahan came in 2nd place with 27.84%. Turnout was 25.5%.

8th Ward:

• Annie Rice was re-elected in the 2-way race with nearly seventky percent of the vote, turnout was relatively high: 28%.

10th Ward:

• Joe Vollmer easily defeated the challenger, with over sixty percent of the votes. Turnout was 21.8%.

12th Ward:

• Larry Arnowitz crushed his two challengers with 74.33%. Voter turnout was 21.9%.

14th Ward:

• Carol Howard will have another term with 52.01% to her challenger’s 47.99%. Turnout was 20.6%.

16th Ward:

• Thomas Oldenburg was unchallenged, turnout was 21.9%.

20th Ward:

• Cara Spencer defeated her challenger with 69.55%, voter turnout was 17.6%

22nd Ward:

• Jeffrey Boyd was re-elected with over sixty percent of the votes, turnout was 16.2%.

28th Ward:

• Heather Navarro wasn’t challenged, voter turnout was 19%.

Board of Aldermen President:

• Lewis Reed was re-elected to a fourth term in the 4-way race with only 35.63% of the vote, citywide turnout this election was 17.83%.
• State Sen. Jamilah Nasheed came in 2nd with 31.6%, Ald. Megan Green 3rd with 31.19%, and Jimmie Mathews a very distant 4th with 1.57%.
• Over 200 people who voted in the democratic primary didn’t vote in this race.
• Post-Dispatch: “Lewis Reed won only five of the city’s 28 wards in Tuesday’s Democratic primary race for president of the city’s Board of Aldermen, but those victories came in historically high voting areas, providing enough support for him to prevail in a close battle with two opponents.

  By comparison, state Sen. Jamilah Nasheed won 13 wards, dominating the north side. Alderman Megan Ellyia Green won 10, with a strong showing in the central part of the city including her Tower Grove South neighborhood.

  Despite Nasheed’s and Green’s faring well geographically, it was the turnout in the wards Reed won that made the difference.”

Only two races, with three or more candidates, did the winner get a plurality of the votes cast. Four races the winner didn’t get more than 50%. In many places these races would have a runoff election between the top two. Still, in other places they’d have an instant runoff, also known as Ranked-Choice Voting.

A ranked-choice voting system (RCV) is an electoral system in which voters rank candidates by preference on their ballots. If a candidate wins a majority of first-preference votes, he or she is declared the winner. If no candidate wins a majority of first-preference votes, the candidate with the fewest first-preference votes is eliminated. First-preference votes cast for the failed candidate are eliminated, lifting the second-preference choices indicated on those ballots. A new tally is conducted to determine whether any candidate has won a majority of the adjusted votes. The process is repeated until a candidate wins an outright majority. This system is sometimes referred to as an instant runoff voting system. (Ballotpedia)

This video explains RCV:

The ultimate winner might be the same, or not. It just depends on how voters ranked the candidates after their 1st choice. It eliminates the perception of the third candidate as a spoiler.

RCV would be especially helpful in highly crowded races, like the 2020 Democratic presidential primary.

— Steve Patterson