You Can Buy Just About Anything Online

My post Tuesday (The Future of the Brick & Mortar Retail Store) drew some interesting, and outdated, views. For example:

“Pets, musical instruments, clothing, food, furniture, consignment items, alcoholic beverages, ice cream, these things make sense to be purchased out of a retail store.”

“…make our weekly trip to the supermarket to stock up on groceries, things that really don’t work online . . . .”

Some erroneously think because they don’t buy these things online, nobody else does either. By that logic everyone still has a landline home phone and gets the printed newspaper delivered every morning. Here’s a look at the items from these comments.

Pets

Pets should come from a local shelter rather than be bought at a store, of course you can browse animals awaiting adoption online. Like cute cats and lovable dogs.

Pet supplies is a big industry!

The US pet and pet supply store industry includes about 8,800 stores with combined annual revenue of about $12 billion and is forecast to grow at a moderate rate in the next two years. Key drivers of growth include increasing income levels, as well as a trend toward pet humanization, or treating pets like family members. (source)

Online sales are about $2 billion:

Unlike traditional brick-and-mortar retailers, participants in the Online Pet Food and Pet Supply Sales industry do not necessarily establish operations following the distribution of population. Densely populated regions are still important to an operator’s geographic location, but not as much as with physical retailers. Online pet supply companies choose their location with rental and transportation costs in mind, since most e-commerce dealers require large amounts of warehouse space. (source)

Of course having a website is no guarantee of success:

Pets.com is one among many other online retailers that failed as a business-to-consumer e-commerce entity. Pets.com was a San Francisco-based e-tailer existing only as a virtual firm that offered pet products, information, and resources to consumers. The site was launched in November, 1998 about the same time as several other online firms offering pet products. Petstore.com, Petopia.com, Petsmart.com, and PetPlanet.com were a few of the major competitors in the online pet industry, although Pets.com had a first-mover advantage being the first of these virtual pet stores to enter the market. In spite of the rising competition in the online pet market, Pets.com appeared to be on a road to success in the beginning of 1999. Sadly, the success never brought profits for the online firm and Pets.com decided to close its doors in November, 2000 just two years after its launch. (source)

Musical Instruments

Here’s a current example from South Bend Michigan:

Music Factory Direct will close its retail store on South Bend’s northwest side to focus its business on growing Internet sales, its owner said.

Dennis Bamber started Music Factory Direct in 2009 at 4004 Technology Drive. He previously ran Woodwind & Brasswind in the same building, which is northwest of where the St. Joseph Valley Parkway crosses the Indiana Toll Road.

Bamber said the company’s online sales of musical instruments are improving, and the business is growing by 10 to 20 percent annually. Sales at the South Bend store, however, have been disappointing.

Music Factory Direct employs seven people, he said, and the closure of the company’s retail store won’t affect that number. (see Music shop closing to focus on Web)

In the St. Louis region Fazio’s Frets and Friends seems like a thriving and popular retail store.

33 years in business, and going strong!! since 1978, we’ve been St. Louis’ best independent music store and we’re a great resource for instruments, accessories, repairs, used gear, instrument and equipment rentals, amplifiers, lessons and advice. With a fantastic selection of great brands…we offer best value with great prices and friendly, personal service from a professional staff who does this for a living.

Their website allows you to order online, or you can call them toll-free. Clearly they do business beyond the St. Louis region! Big companies like Amazon and Best Buy sell instruments online, as do hundreds/thousands of smaller retailers like our own Fazio’s.

In 2011 local store Drum Headquarters closed (Drum Headquarters Closes After 30 Years).

Clothing

Seriously? Sure, clothes will still be sold in stores but online sales are the growth trend. How many local clothing stores do you know of? How many national clothing retail stores like Old Navy doesn’t sell online? Okay, Kleb Clothing & Shoe at 8529 S. Broadway is still in business and it doesn’t even have a website! Kleb’s is an anomaly though, it can’t survive forever, much less increase sales.

In less than a decade Zappos.com reached $1 billion in sales, it was then bought out by Amazon. Online clothing sales are huge!

Food

You have to buy food in a grocery store, right? Wrong! Locally you can order groceries online from Local Harvest Grocery, Straub’s, Dierbergs, and Schnucks, maybe more. Companies like Amazon & Peapod are forcing Walmart to sell food online too. Target doesn’t ship food online but items available in store are listed on their website.

Furniture

IKEA’s stores are great and their shipping is so expensive other companies have sprung up to pickup and deliver their goods. Design Within Reach offers modern furniture online.  St. Louis had a DWR studio but it didn’t last long.

Consignment Items

Like everything else, the consignment business has also moved online.

For instance, RodeoDriveResale.com focuses on luxury designers like Marc Jacobs, Fendi, and Prada, while the newly launched Tradesy.com offers a mix of mid-market and high-end brands such as Zara, Kate Spade, and Michael Kors. StellaPlusJack.com specializes in children’s clothing and accessory brands like Mini Boden and Ralph Lauren. And some websites, including AntoinesConsignment.com, focus on men’s clothing and accessories.

Many of these sites offer prepaid mailing labels for consigners. “You don’t actually have to get in your car and take the things to a particular place,” points out Montgomery, Ala.-based thrift style expert LaCheryl Cillie. “You can hold them until they sell and you have to ship them.” (US News)

Alcoholic Beverages

Liquor Mart is proud to be able to ship wine and non-alcoholic products to California, Colorado, Florida, Idaho, Nebraska, *New Hampshire, North Dakota, Oregon, Washington D.C., and Wyoming.

Due to shipping carrier policies, Liquor Mart is unable to ship beer or spirits to any state at this time. (Liquor Mart)

Laws means online ordering & delivery isn’t possible but through sites like ShopRandalls.com you can can check availability at four local stores.

Ice Cream

Yes you can get overnight delivery of ice cream & gelato!

eCreamery Ice Cream & Gelato was founded by Abby Jordan and Becky App out of a pure love for ice cream and the power of a personalized gift. We love the idea of making ice cream as a GIFT that will be bringing a smile to someone’s face and make a memory. Whether it’s Birthday Ice Cream, Get Well Ice Cream or Thank You Ice Cream, we want to make the moment delicious. (eCreamery)

If I want gelato or ice cream I’ve got lots of local choices but if I can also send ice cream to family in other states as gifts.

With so much available online this presents very real challenges to urbanists who dream of bustling retail streets. Small retail storefronts for larger online operations is one option, as long as it isn’t a burden having an actual storefront. Or maybe have a storefront but not sell anything in it?

Bonobos, (say “bu-NO-bos”) Guideshops are men’s clothing stores that basically don’t sell anything. Customers can try stuff on for size, put outfits together and get advice from salespeople. But if they like it, they’ve got to order it on the Bonobos website.

This small store is a big deal. If other stores catch on — and it may be more of a question of when than if — this could ultimately change the business model for the nation’s 895,800 retail establishments. (USA Today)

Retail is continually changing…

— Steve Patterson

Enough With The IKEA Rumors

Having worked in real estate I learned not to spend the sales commission until after the deal was closed. Blogging is similar.

On Sunday nextSTL.com got many St. Louis IKEA fans excited:

Several WhoLou sources are alleging that highly-coveted Swedish-based furniture chain Ikea intends to develop their first St. Louis store close to the campus of St. Louis University. The 300,000 sq. ft. store will allegedly be built near the Laclede Gas and Salvation Army Adult Rehabilitation Center complexes on Forest Park Ave. between Sarah Street and Vandeventer Ave.

While IKEA does have some inner-city locations, most are in suburban sprawl. IKEA contributes to sprawl.

The next day the Post-Dispatch had a story saying the rumor was untrue:

Responding to the nextstl.com post, [Ikea spokesman] Roth said Monday: “We still have not committed to a time frame, let alone a specific site.” The chain has not listed St. Louis among the cities where it plans to open a store. “Nothing has changed,” Roth said. “We continue to evaluate opportunities in the market,” he said. (stltoday.com)

Online many were excited when they saw the original rumor, repeated on KMOV, Fox2, KPLR, but disappointed when IKEA officials said no deal to build a St. Louis store.

I have no doubt that local commercial real estate brokers are talking to every big retail chain to try to lure them to various sites. These retailers might even show some initial interest in one site or another. But until something is signed I feel it’s too premature to report.

— Steve Patterson

Readers Support Participatory Budgeting

In last week’s poll readers showed support for Participatory Budgeting:

Participatory budgeting (PB) is a different way to manage public money, and to engage people in government. It is a democratic process in which community members directly decide how to spend part of a public budget. It enables taxpayers to work with government to make the budget decisions that affect their lives.

However, three candidates backing PB failed to win their primaries. Will those in office open up the decision-making process or keep it hidden behind closed doors?

Here are the results:

Q: Do you support the idea of “Participatory Budgeting” in St. Louis?

1. Yes 46 [56.1%]
2. No 12 [14.63%]
3. Maybe 11 [13.41%]
4. Unsure/no opinion 9 [10.98%]
5. Other: 4 [4.88%]

The four “other” answers:

1. have no idea what “participatory bugeting” is.
2. what’s the $ amount? If we’re “participating” over chump change it’s moot
3. Could be risky–especially if you’re living in a “developing” area!
4. Aldermen will still be corrupt either way, and can CDBGs be allocated that way?

I’m not going to hold my breath until our elected officials begin doing this.

— Steve Patterson

The Future of the Brick & Mortar Retail Store

Many of us think of a big chain store first when we need to purchase something but the retail landscape is changing as many big chains face financial difficulty:

Retail is an industry in decline—but only for traditional retailers. For companies that have become successful doing something else, opening a chain of stores can bring millions of new customers and the profits that go with them. This paradox of the retail marketplace is evident in some of the biggest names at the mall. Traditional retailers such as Best Buy, J.C. Penney, Sears, and Kmart are struggling to reverse losses, turn themselves around and give shoppers new reasons to think they’re relevant. The recently announced merger of Office Max and Office Depot is just the latest example of a retail glut that has already sunk Borders, CompUSA, Circuit City, and many others. Yet Apple, a technology company and newcomer to the retail scene, operates a network of more than 200 U.S. stores that have created a new paradigm for brick-and-mortar success. Microsoft, a software company, runs about 60 U.S. stores, with plans to open more. Even Google, an information company, is rumored to have retail ambitions. (US News)

Even giants like Walmart are doing good to get 5% growth:

That sluggish curve is clearly one reason the Arkansas-based company has started devoting so much time and attention to its Silicon Valley operations. Headquartered just south of San Francisco, Walmart.com is heavily recruiting tech talent. And in some ways its investment is starting to pay off. The company’s wide-ranging experiments in “clicks-and-mortar” retail have put it at the forefront of merging online, offline and mobile commerce. (Wired)

Are retail stores doomed as more of us shop online? Thankfully, no.

Just because more people shop online, though, doesn’t mean they’ll stop shopping at stores completely. Indeed, for most retail sectors, a physical store can serve a fundamentally different function, giving consumers the ability to see, taste and touch the products in a way that is impossible online. The challenge for retailers in the future, industry analysts say, will be to figure out a way to play up the strengths of the bricks-and-mortar store while incorporating new technology into the experience. (The Street)

The changing retail landscape does mean everyone involved in city development needs to rethink what “retail” means. For many the word conjures up images of 2-3 massive big box (50,000-200,000sf) stores connected by numerous small (5,000-15,000sf) stores.  Those who think of this when they hear retail don’t understand how I can advocate for street-level retail in commercial districts. How will it fit? Parking?

They fail to realize retail doesn’t even need a box. The point is “retail” comes in all shapes & sizes, it’s ridiculous to try to put all retail into the same box. We also can’t fool ourselves into thinking people will ever buy stuff the way they did decades ago. Downtown will never again be the retail center of the region.

— Steve Patterson

St. Louis Population May Drop Below 300K In 2020 Census

We’re still seven years away from the 2020 census but it’s already on my mind. Last month I attended at I attended a lunch where the two speakers talked about Detroit and St. Louis. From the invite:

Detroit’s New Plan for Urban Regeneration and What It Means for St. Louis

Speakers:

Alan Mallach, senior fellow of the National Housing Institute, is the author of many works on housing and planning, including Bringing Buildings Back and Building a Better Urban Future: New Directions for Housing Policies in Weak Market Cities. He served as director of housing and economic development for Trenton, N.J. from 1990 to 1999. He is also a fellow at the Center for Community Progress and the Brookings Institution.

John Gallagher is a veteran journalist and author whose latest book, Reimagining Detroit: Opportunities for Redefining an American City, was named by The Huffington Post as among the best social and political books of 2010. He joined the Detroit Free Press in 1987 to cover urban and economic redevelopment efforts in Detroit and Michigan, a post which he still holds. His other books include Great Architecture of Michigan and, as co-author, AIA Detroit: The American Institute of Architects Guide to Detroit Architecture.

One of the two said Detroit has accepted that it has shrunk and it is likely to shrink more in the 2020 census, that St. Louis is also likely to lose population again — possibly falling below 300,000. The fact is this may well happen.

Still, others love to dump on St. Louis. For example, a recent opinion piece in the Kansas City Star titled Kansas City is rising as St. Louis keeps falling:

• In 1950, St. Louis was the eighth largest U.S. city, with 857,000 people. But by 2010, St. Louis had lost a stunning 538,000 people and plummeted to the 58th largest city, with only 319,000 residents.

• In 1980, St. Louis was still Missouri’s largest city, barely ahead of Kansas City. But by 2010, Kansas City’s population of 460,000 was 44 percent larger than St. Louis’. 

In response friend Matthew Mourning posted on Facebook:

The 1940 city limits of KC were a 58 square mile box of the Missouri River (N), State Line Rd. (W), Blue River (E), and 79th Street (S). (St. Louis is, and has been since the 1876 divorce, 62 square miles, while present day Kansas City tops out at 315 sq. mi. after a series of annexations).

Those 1940 KC city limits had a population of 400,178. In 2010, the population of the same approximate area was *184,803*. That’s a drop of ~215,000, or nearly 55%. St. Louis’s core loss was around 62% since 1940. – Matthew Mourning via Facebook

The point is to look at what’s happening in the core, not including ring after ring of low-density sprawl. Our fixed city limits is the regional core whereas cities like Kansas City and Oklahoma City were able to annex as population fled their core.

Kansas City is denser than Oklahoma City, but that’s not saying much. St. Louis, Detroit, & Cleveland being denser than the acclaimed Portland OR is huge. But numbers themselves can be deceiving, Portland has very dense central neighborhoods. It’s very walkable & cyclist friendly.

In the 2010 census our tracks that had investment in becoming more urban (downtown, near north & south) saw increases in population, while north & south St. Louis continued to lose population. Wake up St. Louis, we need to make the entire City of St. Louis urban/walkable/bikeable. Not in a half-ass way either, the whole deal with transit, strong pedestrian plan, modern zoning.

Auto-centric monstrosities like Loughborough Commons can’t keep happening if we expect to stop the loss of population. But I don’t see any willingness or leadership to prioritize urbanizing more than a few pieces here and there, fragmented in true St. Louis fashion.

If we stay on our current course I wouldn’t be surprised if we drop below 300,000 when the 2020 census comes out in 2021.