What Will California’s 2035 Ban of Internal Combustion Engine Cars Mean to the St. Louis Region, If Anything?

Last month the California Air Resourses Board (CARB) voted to approve new statewide regulations that will gradually reduce the number of passenger vehicles powered solely by gasoline or diesel in their state. They drafted these regulations after California Gov. Gavin Newsome issued an executive order a year ago to make this happen.

”California regulators voted Thursday to ban the sale of all new gasoline-powered vehicles by 2035 as the state looks to aggressively tackle the climate crisis.” (NBC News)

So what will this mean for the St. Louis region? In the short term, very little. In the long term, however, it will greatly impact St. Louis and the rest of North America. Possibly the world. 

First we must understand it’s the federal government, through the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) that sets nationwide standards for emissions and such. However, unlike the other 49 states and the District of Columbia, our most populous state is allowed to set standards that are stricter than federal policy. The EPA must first issue a waiver for California’s new regulation. It’s highly unlikely the Biden administration will attempt to block it. Still, a GOP lawsuit is challenging California’s right to set a stricter emissions standard. 

As the most populous state California is also the biggest car market in the nation, its population is more than double Missouri & Illinois combined!  In the past the following states have opted to follow California’s stricter standards: Connecticut, Delaware, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont, Washington state and Washington D.C. So far two stated, Massachusetts and Washington, have already indicated they will follow California’s lead. The combined vehicle sales in this states is huge! Combined with future ICE vehicle bans in Europe and the world’s largest car market (China) that is pushing EVs it’s clear new internal combustion engines will be rare before 2035 arrives.

It will be very challenging, but auto manufacturer’s line ups will meet these higher standards…for everyone, essentially becoming a national standard. Some have suggested by 2035 there will be nearly zero consumer demand for ICE vehicles. This new rule will rapidly accelerate the transition to electric vehicles.

Let’s look closer at California’s 2035 ban on fossil fuel vehicles. First, it doesn’t mean they’re banning existing gas powered vehicles — they can be driven, and used models can be bought & sold.

“Starting with 2026 models, 35% of new cars, SUVs and small pickups sold in California would be required to be zero-emission vehicles. That quota would increase each year and is expected to reach 51% of all new car sales in 2028, 68% in 2030 and 100% in 2035. The quotas also would allow 20% of zero-emission cars sold to be plug-in hybrids.” (CNN)

While 2035 model year vehicles are still a dozen years away,  2026 models are will be here in just 3 years! To scale up production manufacturers will need to sell EVs beyond states with an EV mandate, though if supplies are limited the inventory will go to those states so they meet the requirements.

 By 2025 plug-in hybrids (PHEVs) must achieve 50 miles in pure electric mode — a substantial increase from the 18-25 miles seen in current PHEVs. In the last decade a lot of PHEVs were only available in California, going forward expect more to be nationwide. Motorcycles and large trucks will be regulated separately, with a longer time frame.

Dealerships in the St. Louis region will offer more EVs, and fewer fuel burning vehicles. They’ll also need to renovate their facilities to be able to charge & service the electric cars they’ll be selling. The selection of EVs will rapidly increase, just as the selection of new gas vehicles will decline. Municipalities like St. Louis with many residents parking on city streets will need a way to charge their vehicles. 

Businesses that depend on gas vehicles will need to reinvent themselves. For example, places that do oil changes, radiator flushes, and transmission work will consolidate — fewer will be necessary. Something else will occupy that real estate in the future.

Gas stations make very little money from fuel, their profit comes from the convenience store portion of the business model.  Many are owned by individuals living in our region, not corporations in other states.  Those located near interstates can add high speed charging points to lure travelers to stop and spend money while replenishing their batteries.

Some gas stations will close. Eventually we’ll see gas deserts with few options for filing up that classic 2020 Toyota Corolla you’re driving until it dies. Auto parts stores will still be around for a long time, but they can’t survive on selling wiper blades.

At the start of the 20th century a major restructuring happened as the change from horse & buggy to cars took place. Jobs building carriages, caring for horses, etc went away. Such a restructuring is beginning now, with this mandate.

Those of you alive in 2040, 2050 will be part of a different St. Louis. It’s impossible to predict how it will all play out, but rest assured things won’t be static. The combination of vehicles going electric and the temperatures getting hotter will necessitate physical changes.

I hope the region will occupy less total land in the future, with considerably less impervious surfaces per capita. Hopefully the entire region will see a much higher use of public transit.  And yes, our electrical grid will need to improve.  Users will also need to learn to minimize using electricity during periods of peak demand.

Exciting times.

– Steve Patterson

Celebrating the Life of Steve Patterson, Part 1: “I Ain’t Dead Yet”

When I was first diagnosed with stage 4 kidney cancer in the fall of 2019 I wasn’t sure what to expect from treatment, life expectancy, etc. While getting my affairs in order I remained as optimistic as possible.

I’m not a fan of solemn funerals so I thought about having a big party to celebrate my life in style. But what good is that after I’m dead?  So then a pre-death party followed by another at some point after I’m gone. Perfect.

Then came the pandemic. Scratch anything indoors. I thought about Citygarden, but Kaldi’s closed temporarily so no snacks or restroom access.

Now, even with vaccines, people are still getting Covid-19.  I’ve seen the blood test results on my immune health, that’s why my oncologist says  I’m immunocompromised. Anything indoors would require someone to check vaccination status. Outdoors it is, but not in brutal heat, cold, rain, etc.

As the months and years have passed I’m less interested in a single big event. Instead I like the idea of a series of small informal outdoor gatherings. I’d like to see each of you in person, whether we know each other or not.

The first such event was going to be this morning, but last week I saw  forecast called for rain. It’s always something…

Once I see an opening in the weather I’ll announce the date & time on social media (Facebook, Instagram, and Twitter) at least 24 hours  prior.

Right now Wednesday morning (8/31/2022)is looking good, so this is a tentative date, 8am-10am. Unless it rains I’ll be on the terrace outside the recently reopened Kaldi’s in Citygarden, 808 Chestnut, enjoying a smoothie that I ordered online via ToastTab app. Please stop by to say hello, tell me I’m often wrong, or whatever. I’ll be sitting in a regular chair, but my orange wheelchair will be nearby.

For those that haven’t seen me in a long time, I now weigh about half of what I did when I had my stroke in 2008! I have to eat all the time now just to try to maintain my current weight.

I’ll announce additional dates/times/locations  for future gatherings on social media (Facebook, Instagram, and Twitter) a few days prior. I’m open to suggestions for other outdoor locations, the only requirements are accessible via transit, shade, and nearby restroom. I’d also like to do some evening and weekend gatherings. I’ve also thought about using Zoom, FaceTime, Facebook Live. Suggestions welcome.

Again, I’d love to talk with everyone at some point. Monday is the first of many. I do ask that if you have any Covid-19 symptoms (or positive test) please wait for a future date.

I definitely want to do something on the 18th anniversary of this blog, on Monday October 31, 2022. Maybe I could dress up as the late Jane Jacobs?

My next scans are in two weeks, I anticipate they’ll also show my “numerous tumors” as still stable.  After my 4-night hospitalization last month my kidneys are returning to normal.

Ok, hope to at least see a few of you Monday morning!

— Steve

Rethinking Interstate 64 (aka U.S. 40) In Midtown St. Louis, Between Compton & Grand

Regular readers know I have a strong dislike of the interstate highways that were forced through existing dense urban neighborhoods, destroying social networks and dividing neighborhoods. So it’s no surprise I’ve thought about I-64 in Midtown St. Louis for decades.

It was August 2021 when I learned MoDOT would be undertaking the huge task of rethinking the stretch of I-64 between Jefferson and Kingshighway.  Nine months later, in May 2022, the Future 64 planning project finally went public:

The I-64 Corridor between Kingshighway and Jefferson is an essential route for homes, schools, and businesses. The Missouri Department of Transportation (MoDOT) is working with the community to determine the future of the corridor in terms of needs and desired outcomes. Before MoDOT makes any improvements to the corridor corridor, it will evaluate the existing conditions of roadways, interchanges, surface streets, and bicycle/pedestrian access.   

The method the department is using is formally known as a Planning and Environmental Linkages study or PEL. This PEL study will look at the potential impact future projects will have on the environment, the community, and connectivity in the area. MoDOT is conducting the PEL now so when funding is identified for corridor projects, construction can begin sooner.

The PEL study for the I-64 central corridor is called: Future64: Community. Transportation. Together. The title reflects the importance of public engagement and community involvement in this process. As a result, this study will incorporate ongoing engagement that is equitable and inclusive to help ensure that a wide range and extensive number of voices are heard, and that equity is the focus of proposed solutions. (MoDOT/Future64)

Typically MoDOT doesn’t take the time to rethink, they just replace what was there. Example: the South Broadway bridge over I-44 downtown being replaced without any pedestrian sidewalk (see This Is Our Chance To Reconnect Two Neighborhoods Long Separated By Highways).

So this planning effort is an important milestone.

After the project went public some immediately began posting their ideas, but I’m a little slower in both my analysis and presentation.  Now, a year after I began thinking about specifics, I’m ready to share what I’ve come up with — and why.

First we need to look back at what the area looked like pre-interstate. In February 1909 if you were heading west on Market and reached Jefferson the main road bent to the left but became Laclede. Market west of Jefferson was a minor residential street. Between Beaumont & Leffingwell the road split again, with Laclede continuing ahead and Manchester off to the left. To repeat: Market briefly became Laclede, which split off to Manchester at a diagonal. Yes, Manchester used to run at a diagonal heading through what later became known as Mill Creek Valley toward downtown.

Go ahead, look at a map and visually draw a line between Manchester & Vandeventer and Compton & Market. Because of the many rail lines Manchester wouldn’t have been a straight line, it would have bent to the north of them. My point is a century ago streets continued uninterrupted, but highways/interstates (and industrialization) radically altered the landscape to make life easier for those behind the wheel of those noisy new horseless carriages (shaking cane). It’s possible the Manchester  connection was severed prior to the highway but I didn’t want to further delay this post while searching the Post-Dispatch archives for the answer.

It’s a given that I-64/U.S. 40 will not be removed, or buried in a big dig. What is happening now will determine how it looks and functions for the next 50-70 years. Next we need to list and look at what I see as the problems to solve by changing how the highway and interchanges are currently configured.

• Large amount of land used, wasted
• Pedestrian & bicycle navigation of area is challenging, nearly impossible, the local street network decimated
• Driving the area is also challenging, with awkward & confusing on/off ramps

Okay, here’s my proposed solution.

Key:

• Yellow: existing streets
• Green: new or revised streets
• Red: interstate
• Purple: existing ramp
• Orange: new on/off ramps
• Light blue:

Let’s start on the left/west side.

Ok, lets move down to the big area to the east.

The two green circles are roundabouts. Market Street could continue into the center of the newly developed area. Ideally 5+ story building would be built as a terminus to the view when heading west on Market. A new north-south connection through the new development would allow access to Spruce Street and the other parts south of I-64. The eastbound lanes of I-64 would need to be shifted north to give room for the on/off ramps at roundabout at Compton & Spruce. The westbound lanes of I-64 can shift south to free up land for development.

I’m not a traffic/civil engineer so I might not have sufficient room for say acceleration/deceleration on on/off ramps or some other detail, but I think this accomplishes the job of fixing the current problems. It gives more room for development, and increases connections for all modes of travel.

I’d love to see the new development include a variety of residential price points from low income to top market rates, parking available at a rate of less than one space per dwelling unit. It shouldn’t all be expensive housing geared toward college students. Other uses include office, retail, small manufacturing, perhaps business incubator space, etc.

I don’t know that I’ll live long enough to see any changes, but hopefully these ideas will be helpful to the process.

— Steve Patterson

EV Passed Sales Tipping Point and EV Charging Coming to Biggest Truck/Travel Stop Chain

Couple of big items in the recent news about electric vehicles (EVs) means I’ve got to stop procrastinating on several posts about EVs, specifically EV charging. Most EV owners charge at home, overnight while sleeping. The sore subject of EV charging for renters and home owners without off-street parking is for a future post.

Today is the first of a couple of posts on driving an EV between metropolitan areas. As stated above, a couple of things are changing regarding EVs:

The U.S. is the latest country to pass what’s become a critical EV tipping point: 5 per cent of new car sales powered only by electricity. This threshold signals the start of mass EV adoption, the period when technological preferences rapidly flip, according to the analysis.

For the past six months, the U.S. joined Europe and China — collectively the three largest car markets — in moving beyond the 5 per cent tipping point. If the U.S. follows the trend established by 18 countries that came before it, a quarter of new car sales could be electric by the end of 2025. That would be a year or two ahead of most major forecasts. (Financial Post)

I know 5% isn’t much, but Merriam-Webster defines a tipping point as “the critical point in a situation, process, or system beyond which a significant and often unstoppable effect or change takes place.” EV adoption will now pick up, it’s no longer just early adopters.

Again, most EVs are charged at home, or sometimes at work. It is when you want to travel outside your metropolitan area that you need to think about using a public charger. Like EV sales, charger networks are quickly growing, though still small.

Electrify America is one of the leading charging networks, with the more connections at speeds of 150-350kW than any other charging network. It’s a subsidiary of Volkswagen, part of their settlement for the dieselgate scandal.

As part of a consent decree reached with United States officials in 2016, Volkswagen agreed to numerous actions, with US$2 billion in total, to promote electric vehicle use over 10 years to atone for the additional air pollution it caused. One aspect of the program was a pledge to establish a public electric vehicle charging network.

The Electrify America brand was unveiled in January 2017, along with its first phase of station buildout. Its first station opened in May 2018, in Chicopee, Massachusetts. In 2022, Siemens became its first external investor with a minority shareholder stake and a seat on the board. (Wikipedia)

Most of the Electrify America (EA) chargers I’ve seen are located in Walmart Parking lots, which are spacious and often near interstate highways. All non-Tesla EVs can use their chargers without an adapter. Thus, many non-Volkswagen EV manufacturers have embraced the network. Examples include Ford, Hyundai, and EV-only VinFast.

General Motors is going a different direction, one that will dramatically increase the number of direct current (DC) chargers nationally:

GM and Pilot Company are employing EVgo, which, with over 850 locations, is the most extensive fast-charging network in the country. EVgo will install, operate, and maintain GM and Pilot Company’s charging network through its eXtend program, with the first wave of chargers expected to be operational by 2023. Along with the EVgo logo, the chargers will be branded with both the Pilot Flying J logo and GM’s charging brand, Ultium Charge 360. (Car and Driver)

This is a smart move by GM, Pilot, and EVgo. Why? General Motors wants to become the leading seller of EVs in North America, while Volkswagen Group (VW, Audi, Porsche, and others) wants to be the worldwide leader. VW’s Electrify America and Electrify Canada networks are part of their strategy for dominance.  So it makes sense GM would want to be a part of a competing charging network.

Pilot/Flying J is among the  biggest chain of travel/truck stops, with 550 “locations in 44 states and six Canadian provinces.” Fuel sales drive sales of food, drinks. They clearly recognize the need to diversify so they can also attract travelers in EVs. The EVgo network has been around a while, in St. Louis you’ll see their chargers at Commerce Bank locations — not convenient to interstate travelers. This deal gives EVgo access to large travel center real estate very close to interstate exists, something it very much needed.

Locating chargers at facilities open 24 hours a day give users a chance to use the restroom, get a bite/beverage, etc. Very different from current chargers, including Tesla’s extensive supercharger network.

Adding EV charging  to 500+ existing travel centers isn’t going to be cheap, but this is a part of GM’s $750 million dollar investment in EV charging infrastructure. A major investor in Pilot is Berkshire Hathaways (Warren Buffet). Other travel centers/stops like Oklahoma City-based Love’s will likely quickly form similar partnerships.

You might be thinking about non-semi centers like Buc-ee’s and the new copycat Wally’s, the latter with a location along I-44 in Fenton MO.  Well, the well-known Buc-ee’s chain partnered with Tesla to bring their supercharger network to its locations in numerous southern states. Tesla will eventually open their network to non-Tesla EVs. Where does that leave the two locations of Wally’s and frankly most of EVgo’s network?

In the slow lane.

Let me explain what I mean by slow lane. Let’s suppose you get a new 2022 Hyundai Ioniq 5 with its very fast 800 volt architecture and want to take a road trip.  The 6-figure Porsche Tycan is the best-known example of an EV with 800v architecture, the Hyundai & cousin Kia EV6 are the lowest priced EVs sold in North America with very fast 800v architecture.

If you stop at a charger with a rate of 150kW-350kW your stop will be considerably shorter than had you stopped at a 50kW charger.

Going from 15% to 66% on 150kW+ would require just 15 minutes of charging time.

On the other hand, at 50kW going from 30% to 100% would require 70 minutes.  To be fair as batteries get toward 100% the rate of charging does slow.

Additionally Wally’s two locations doesn’t use one of the major charging networks, or accept major credit cards. Instead you have to download another app onto your smartphone, add funds to that app, then use the app to charge your EV. Just downloading, setting up, and funding a new app would require more than the 15 minutes spent charging at Electrify America.

The followup to this post will be on the subject of planning a road trip in a variety of EVs, comparing route planning apps, charging networks, and technology.

No, we’ve not bought an EV.  I’ve just finally gotten somewhat of a handle on the topic.

— Steve Patterson

Missouri Primary Four Weeks Away on August 2, 2022

Seven states, including Missouri, will hold primary elections on Tuesday August 2, 2022 — just four weeks from today. My goal in this post is to make you aware  of all items on your ballot, not just the high-profile U.S. Senate race.

St. Louis City (election website):

First, with redistricting and ward reduction from 28 to 14 it’s very likely you’re ward and precinct numbers are different than they were on the previous election. I’ve been in the 5th for a decade, now it’s the 14th!

City voters have two propositions on their ballots:

PROPOSITION S
Shall The Board of Education of the City of St. Louis borrow money in the amount of One Hundred Sixty Million Dollars ($160,000,000) for the purpose of acquiring, constructing, renovating, repairing, improving, furnishing and equipping school sites, buildings and related facilities in the District, including but not limited to (1) removing lead paint, fencing and other hazardous materials at affected schools, (2) upgrading mechanical systems to include replacement of outdated or obsolete equipment, temperature controls, and duct cleaning to increase ventilation, (3) upgrading building infrastructure by replacing roofs, tuck-pointing, waterproofing and window replacements, (4) improving security systems to increase student safety by installing fire alarm systems and replacing interior and exterior doors, (5) upgrading technology to modernize classrooms and improve academic performance, (6) improving building conditions by renovating restrooms and other ADA improvements, and (7) increasing learning opportunities by creating outdoor learning spaces and making improvements to playgrounds and athletic fields and facilities, and issue general obligation bonds for the payment thereof?

If this proposition is approved, the adjusted debt service levy of the school district is estimated to remain unchanged at the current rate of $0.6211 per one hundred dollars assessed valuation of real and personal property.

YES – FOR THE PROPOSITION
NO – AGAINST THE PROPOSITION 

And…

PROPOSITION F
Shall Section 24 of Article IV of the City’s Charter be changed to increase the maximum fine for violations of City ordinances regarding preservation and protection of environmental conditions for preventing harm to the health, safety, and comfort of City residents or harm to private or public property such as unauthorized dumping of waste or debris on private or public property, prohibited refuse, waste tire disposal, and the like from $500.00 to $1,000.00?

YES – FOR THE PROPOSITION
NO – AGAINST THE PROPOSITION

The only contested citywide county office in the primary is two candidates running for Recorder of Deeds on the Green Party. Republican, Democratic, and Libertarian ballots all have only one candidate each for Collector of Revenue, License Collector, and Recorder of Deeds.

However, voters in the current 21st ward will also vote to select an alderperson to fill the vacant seat. Four candidates are running: Laura Keys (D), Joann Dyson Williams (I),  Melinda L. Long (I), and Ebony Moore (I). See official list of candidates here.

St. Louis County (election website)

St. Louis County has three propositions on their ballots: A, M, and V  — see the full language linked on the county ballot page, here. You can also enter your address for your specific ballot.

Missouri (Secretary of State election website)

There are no statewide propositions on our August primary ballot, but there will be quite a few on our general election ballot in November.

Elections for the state house and state Auditor are pretty boring, most in the St. Louis area unchallenged. Republican voters will need to select one of two candidates for state auditor.

In Missouri’s first congressional district it’s more interesting. Three republicans want the GOP nomination. On the democratic ballot incumbent Cori Bush has four primary opponents! (Cori has my vote)

The big race in Missouri this year is to fill the U.S. Senate seat held by retiring senator Roy Blunt (R). Anytime you have an open seat with no incumbent a lot of candidates toss their hats into the ring.

The republican ballot has 21 candidates, yes 21! Many of dropped out or been disqualified, but still. Former governor Eric “RINO hunter” Greitens is currently leading in the polls.

The democratic ballot has 11 hopefuls that want to flip the seat from red to blue. I’m actually Facebook friends with one of the 11, but I’m not sure how I’ll vote — I’ve got to decide before my absentee ballot arrives. Lucas Kunce is the most likely democratic nominee.

It’s very likely the Republican and Democratic nominees will face at least one independent challenger in November. One potential outcome is a conservative-minded independent splitting the vote, helping the democratic nominee get elected.

Further reading:

Ballotpedia.org

League of Women Voters of St. Louis

The primary is Tuesday August 2, 2022.

— Steve Patterson